1 erc energy research centre university of cape town climate change mitigation in the context of...
TRANSCRIPT
1 ERC
Energy Research Centre University of Cape Town
Climate change mitigation in the context of development
HARALD WINKLER
INAUGURAL LECTURE 17 August 2011
3 ERC
Concentration of Greenhouse
gases
Source: SAWS Annual Report 08/09Data from Global Atmosphere Watch at SA Weather Service, at Cape Point
11 ERC
…. after they have exhausted all other possibilities.
Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing
Sir Winston Churchill
12 ERC
World by historical cumulative fossil fuel emissions 1900-1999compared to Peters equal area projection
13 ERC
Pledges add up to a 3.2ºC world (or so)
Source: http://www.climateactiontracker.org/ Climate Analytics, Ecofys, PIK
17 ERC
Spatial distribution of population in Gauteng (2001 census)Compared to Jakarta, London and Paris
Spatial distribution of population in Gauteng (2001 census)Compared to Jakarta, London and Paris
18 ERC
renew-ables
oil
gas
coal
FUEL MIX
Transformation
- power plants
- refineries
- synthetic fuel
End use
- tons steel / GJ
- passengerkmllitre
- lumens/Watt
ENERGYEFFICIENCY
Nationalemissions
X X =
ECONOMICSTRUCTURE
1O
2O 3O
Three broad areas to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
Source: Winkler 2009 adapted from R Spalding-Fecher, EDRC
19 ERC
The minerals-energy complex
AluminiumIron and steelFerrochromeManganese
GoldCoal
PlatinumMinerals-sands
AngloExxaroXstrata
Arcelor MittalBHP-Billiton
Lonmin
Coal input
Eskom
Cheapelectricity
CTL + chemicals71 Mt/yr
Emissions of 230 Mt/yr
Policy processes• IRP• Carbon tax• Planning Commission
PROFIT
PROFIT
Sasol
Source: Jesse Burton, ERC
22 ERC
0
150
300
-R 34
Industrial efficiency
0
25
50
R 697
Biofuel subsidy
0
25
50
R 1,987
Hybrids
0
150
300
450
600
R 42
Escalating CO2 tax
0
150
300Renewables w ith learning,
extended
R3
Source: SBT 2007, LTMS Scenario Building Team, 2007, Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios: Strategic Options for South Africa
23 ERC
0
150
300
R 102
Electric vehicles w ith nuclear, renewables
0
150
300
R 92
Renewables, extended
0
150
300
R 125
Subsidy for renewables
0
150
300
R 20
Nuclear, extended
0
150
300
-R 34
Industrial efficiency
0
150
300
R 18
Nuclear
0
150
300
R 52
Renewables
0
150
300
-R 269
Improved vehicle efficiency
All Medium Wedges
0
150
300All Small Wedges
0
25
50
0
25
50
R 72
CCS 20 Mt
0
25
50
R 697
Biofuel subsidy
0
25
50
-R 5
Cleaner coal
0
25
50
-R 208
SWH subsidy
0
25
50
-R 198
Residential efficiency
0
25
50
-R 15
Fire control
0
25
50
R 1,987
Hybrids
0
25
50
-R 1,131
Passenger modal shift
0
25
50
R 524
Biofuels
0
25
50
R 607
Electric vehicles in GWC grid
0
25
50
-R 203
Commercial efficiency
0
25
50
R 14
Waste management
0
25
50
R 105
Synfuels CCS 23 Mt
0
150
300
450
600
R 42
Escalating CO2 tax
0
150
300Renewables with learning,
extended
R3
0
5
10
R 50
Enteric fermentation
0
5
10
-R 19
Manure management
0
5
10
R 24
Reduced tillage
0
5
10
R 39
Afforestation
0
5
10R 346
Coal mine methane
0
5
10R 476
Synfuels CCS 2 Mt
0
5
10R 8
Synfuels methane
0
5
10R 0
Aluminium
0
5
10
-R 4,404
Limit less eff
24 ERC
Peak
Decline
Plateau550
Source: RSA 2008 Government’s vision, strategic direction and framework for climate policy. Presentation by the Minister of
Environmental Affairs and Tourism on the July Cabinet lekgotla
28 ERC
US energy consumption by energy resource
1635-2000 (in Quadrillion Btu)
Source: US Energy Information Administration
Growth … of US energy consumption
30 ERC
The commitment to visionary politics that got us to where we are now is gone. It’s
gone. Let’s not kid ourselves. We have to wake up now and re-dream.
Njabulo Ndebele, ‘Renewing Citizenship’