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Page 1: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS

Page 2: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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Egypt Demographic Indicators

Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males: 51.1%Percent urban: 42.5%Birth rate: 26.1Death rate: 6.5Total fertility rate: 3.2 child/womanLife expectancy: 67.1(M) 71.5(F)Marriage rate: 7.7 per thousandDivorce rate: 1.1 per thousand

Page 3: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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Egypt Demographic Indicators

Labor force size: 20.6 millionUnemployment rate:10.7%Pre- university students 15.3 million

Primary stage: 49.6% Preparatory stage: 27.8%Secondary stage:22.6%

University students 1.5 millionFemales :47.5%

Page 4: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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Population Policy Quantitative Objectives 2002-2017

IndicatorsTarget

200720122017

Crude Birth Rate (‰)24.621.317.3

Crude Death Rate (‰)5.75.45.4

Rate of Natural Increase (%)

1.891.591.19

TFR2.922.512.1

CPR636773

Maternal Mortality Ratio per 100,000 birth

665140

Page 5: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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This presentation illustrates the assumptions and main results of the 4 projections conducted recently. The 4 projections used the cohort component method.

Page 6: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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Existing population Projections

This presentation illustrates the assumptions and main results of the 4 projections conducted recently. The 4 projections used the cohort component method.

Page 7: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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I. Population and Labor Force in Egypt, Egypt 2020 Project

II. The Policy Project, Egypt's Population Projections, 2000-2017

III. CAPMAS, Egypt’s Population Projections,1996-2021

IV. CDC Egypt’s Population Projections, 1996-2021

Page 8: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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I. Egypt 2020

Egypt 2020 project conducted a study on population and labor force in Egypt, which started by population projections for each of the 6 regions separately:

urban governorates, urban lower Egypt, rural lower Egypt,urban upper Egypt, rural upper Egypt,frontier governorates.

5 different political scenarios

Page 9: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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Main assumptions:Main assumptions:

Fertility: fertility level will decrease over time and the pace of change will differ across regions and by political scenarios.

Mortality: Life expectancy will increase over time and the pace of change will differ by political scenarios.

Internal migration: mobility between the 6 regions will differ by political scenarios in terms of direction and magnitude.

International migration was not considered.

Page 10: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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MaleMaleFemaleFemale

RegionRegion20002000202020202000200020202020

UrbanUrban66.866.870.870.868.868.872.872.8U lowerU lower66.866.870.870.868.868.872.872.8R lowerR lower65.865.869.869.867.867.871.871.8U upperU upper65.865.869.869.867.867.871.871.8R upperR upper64.864.868.868.866.866.870.870.8frontierfrontier66.866.870.870.868.868.872.872.8

Expectation of life at birthExpectation of life at birth

Page 11: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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TFR by regionsTFR by regions

LLMMHH

RegionRegion200020002020202020220200

20202020

UrbanUrban2.682.681.921.922.102.102.312.31

U lowerU lower2.522.521.731.731.961.962.262.26

R lowerR lower3.233.232.102.102.332.332.652.65

U upperU upper3.563.562.382.382.592.592.862.86

R upperR upper4.804.802.982.983.263.263.653.65

frontierfrontier3.733.732.422.422.642.642.942.94

Page 12: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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Projected populationProjected population

YearLMH

200064.3764.4364.5

200571.1471.3771.65

201078.0978.6779.38

201584.5985.7887

202090.292.0694.17

Page 13: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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II. II. The Policy ProjectThe Policy Project

The Policy project in Egypt conducted a study on “Egypt population projections 2000-2017” in 2002.

1996 Population census of Egypt was taken as a base year for the projection using Spectrum software package.

Page 14: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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Main assumptions: Mortality component: the model life table used is the UN General model.

Migration component :the net migration is assumed to be negligible.

Fertility: it was assumed that there would be three assumptions for total fertility rates along the period (2000-2017) as follow:

Page 15: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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Assumed TFR

High assumption: TFR reach replacement level fertility (TFR=2.1)

in 2017.Medium assumption:TFR reach replacement level fertility (TFR=2.1)

in 2027. And the expected TFR for 2017 =2.5Low assumption:TFR will remain constant at its level (3.5) in 2000

up to 2017

Page 16: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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Projected populationProjected population

YearLMH

200267.067.067.1

200774.074.475.3

201280.781.984.7

201786.488.894.6

Page 17: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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III. CAPMAS, Egypt’s Population Projections,1996-2021

The Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistic conducted a project labeled “Impact of population increase on development in Egypt” which included population projections based on 1996 census.

Page 18: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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YEARMALESFEMALES

199665.169200167.171.5

200669.273.6

201170.975.5

201672.577.2202173.978.7

Expectation of life at birth

Page 19: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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Main assumptions: Fertility component: it was assumed that

there would be two assumptions for total fertility rates along the period (1996-2021) :

High assumption: fertility would be constant along the period

Low assumption: fertility would achieve 2.09 in 2021

Page 20: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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Main assumptions:

Migration component was neglected.

Page 21: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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Projected populationProjected population

YearMH

199658.758.7

20016565.0

200671.572.6

201178.281.1

201684.790.4

202190.8100.2

Page 22: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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Comparison between projected population from different studies

80

82

84

86

88

90

E g y p t 2020(2015)

C D C (2016) C A P M A S (2016) P o lic y (2017)

low m edium high

Page 23: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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Comparison between projected population different studies

85

87

89

91

93

95

E g y p t 2020 (2020) C D C (2021) C A P M A S (2021)

L O W M E D IU M H IG H

Page 24: 1 EGYPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS. 2 Egypt Demographic Indicators Population (2004): 68.6 million Percent of males:51.1% Percent urban: 42.5% Birth rate:

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