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Dealing with Climate Change

Dr Jan WrightParliamentary Commissioner

for the Environment

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Outline

1. Climate change science and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

2. Dealing with climate change3. Putting a price on carbon4. “Believing” in climate change

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greenhouse gases trap heat

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CO2 concentration

temperature

Greenhouse Earth in Action

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How do we know what’s happening?

to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the latest scientific, technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.

The 2007 IPCC report • 2,500 + scientific expert reviewers• 800+ contributing authors• 450+ lead authors from • 130+ different countries• 6 years of work • 4 volumes

“by far the largest, broadest, and most international scientific assessment – and consensus - in history. “ Highly Authoritative Commentator, DomPost 2008

The IPCC assesses the science

The 2007 IPCC report • 2,500 + scientific expert reviewers• 800+ contributing authors• 450+ lead authors from • 130+ different countries• 6 years of work • 4 volumes

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………and the IPCC says:

“Warming of the climate system is

unequivocal”

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nature

nature + humans

what happened

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Difference in surface temperature 1951 - 1980 versus 2000 – 2007.

Climate change varies across the planet

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Thames barrierGrizzly-Polar bear

cross

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This is serious!

• With more than 2o warming, there is significant risk of irreversible catastrophe

• Need to limit greenhouse gas concentrations to 450 ppm to limit warming to 2o

• But currently on track to exceed this considerably

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Responding to Climate Change

• Adaptation coping with the impacts of climate

change

• Mitigation reducing the buildup of greenhouse gases in

the atmosphere

• Research understanding the problem and solutions

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Adaptation

• Acute

• Chronic

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Mitigation

• International Agreements – targets and binding commitments

• Reduce greenhouse gas emissions

• Remove carbon from the atmosphere (sequestration)

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Mitigation is hard

Tragedy of the Commons

Problem is global and intergenerational

Collective action – “I will if you will”

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Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions

• Voluntary change

• Regulation

• Economic instrument

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Why put a price on carbon?• Greenhouse gas emissions are

associated with all goods and services

• Working out the emissions for everything is impossibly complicated

• Carbon price lets the economy do the calculations for us

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The political challenge of pricing carbon emissions

Hard enough raising an existing tax let alone putting a price on something that has been free

Invisible, silent, tasteless, odourless, and intangible

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Two ways of pricing carbon

• Carbon tax – fix P, Q emerges

• Cap and trade – fix Q, P emerges

• Reality - hybridsP

Q

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very different to

• Different challenges• Both bringing in emissions trading

schemes

New Zealand

Australia

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What’s happened in NZ

• Labour Government:- Emissions Trading Scheme in 2008

includes all sectors, all gases

• National Government: – Review of ETS by Select Committee – ETS Amendment Bill

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What’s happened in Australia

• Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme

Rejected by the Senate August 2009, probably back to the Senate soon.

Not all sectors, all gases- excludes agriculture and deforestation

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Believing in climate change

• >40% in UK and >50% in USA refuse to accept our emissions are changing the climate

• How do we generate a shared belief in the reality of climate change?

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Questions?