1 capri prague meeting capri-dynaspat, 11./12. april 2005 capri-dynaspat project second project...

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Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11./12. April 2005

CAPRI-Dynaspat Project

Second Project Workshop

Prague, 11. and 12.April 2004

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Introduction

• Thanks to the Prague team for hosting us• A busy year for CAPRI: negotiations and start

of SEAMLESS, unforeseen IPTS project, demand from the commission …

• … and a quite successful start for our project:– East expansion much further then expected

(model runs on preliminary data for EU27 ..)Excellent co-operation on GIS-link between JRC and Bonn

– Regular optimistic signals on energy and labor

… but still a lot to do and discuss …

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Current project with CAPRI

• 3 “Specific Targeted Research Projects”:– CAPRI-Dynaspat– Eu-Med-Agpol trade liberalization with

Mediterrean countries (3/2004-3/2007)– MercoPol trade liberalization with South

American countries (4/2005-4/2008)

• 2 “Integrated projects”– Seamless (Bonn, LEI, IAMM)– Sensor (LEI, The Hague)

• Project for IPTS Sevilla (Bonn, FAL)

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Developments

CAPRIModeling System

FarmTypes

Seamless/IPTS

ImprovedMarket Model

Eu-MedAgpol/MercoPol/Seamless

GIS-Link

Labor

Energy

Dynaspat

RecursiveDynamic

Dynaspat

DNDCLandscape

HydrologicalModels

?

AlternativeLand uses

Sensor

EastExpansion

Dynaspat

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Developments cntd.

• CAPRI is since October 2004 installedin DG-AGRI

• First results presented, with in some cases surprisingly good results

• Decision to use CAPRI for baseline publication in early summer

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Organisation CAPRI-Dynaspat

Bonn: Co-ordination & Training of partners,

Overall model design, Recursive-Dynamic

version, scenario analysis

Prague: East expansion of CAPRI

Ispra: GIS link, bio-phyiscal model for Green House

Gas Emissions, Landscape indicator

Galway: Labour projections and labour demand

Tänikon: Energy use indicator

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Overview on tasks

• Regular updates, reference run, scenario writing and impact analysis– Regular updates of the data base (WP1)– Reference runs (WP2)– Yearly scenario analysis (WP 3)

• Methodological Improvements of the existing modelling system– Dynamic version of supply module (WP 4)– Dynamic version of market module module (WP 5)– Employment module (WP 7)

• Improved environmental indicators and

link to a Geographical Information system for landscape assessment– Energy use indicator (WP 6)– CAPRI GIS Link (WP 8)– Landscape indicator (WP 9)– Greenhouse gas process model link (WP 10)

• Preparation for East Expansion– CAPRI east expansion pilot study (WP 11)– CAPRI east epxansion network (WP 12)

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CAPRI-Dynaspat: WPs

EconomicCore Model

Data BaseUpdates (WP1)

Coco Data Base(consistent & complete

time seriesat MS level)

CAPRI Data Base(consistent & complete

base year data set for farm types at NUTS)

ReferenceRuns (WP2)

ScenarioAnalysis (WP3)

DynamicSupply (WP4)

DynamicMarket (WP5)

Environmental& EconomicIndicators

EnergyUse (WP6)

Employment(WP7)

GIS

CAPRI- GIS(WP8)

ProcessModel

ExpansionEast (WP11)

CAPRI-Soil(WP10)

Landscape(WP9)

D24 D26 D23

D19D21 D15 D17D11 D13

D18D20 D14 D16D10 D12

D4-6D22 D7-9D25/27

D1/2/3

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Regular updates, reference run, scenarios

• Download latest available datafrom EuroStat, DG-AGRI, FAO

• Reconcile data base:– fill gaps– remove inconsistencies– re-estimate input allocation

• Check for new projections(FAPRI/DG-AGRI/FAO)

and revise reference run• Contact DG-AGRI, define scenarios, run

model and perform impact analysis

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Methodological improvements

• Switch from comparative static(= long run equilibrium)

to recursive-dynamic version(=show adjustment path)

• Re-estimate non-linear cost functions with adjustment costs, embed annual herd size for cattle

• Introduce partial adjustment model in the market model

• Employment module (projection + link to activities)

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Environmental indicators

• Introduce „engineering factors“ for energy use in agricultural activities => energy indicator

• GIS link develop distribution algorithm from NUTS II results to grid(econometrics, data on climate, soil, elevation etc. necessary at NUTS II/grid level)

• Bio-Phyiscal process model for GHG requires GIS link

• Landscape indicators

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East expansion

• „Pilot study“:full regionalization of CZ, PL and HU

• Document proceeding to ensure that process can be repeated (in an improved manner) in the remaining MS

• Build up a network of suitable contacts in the new MS to apply and maintain CAPRI

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Agenda for the meeting

• Monday: Status and outlook WP1-3 6-10:– Results achieved– Discussion and decisions on next steps

• Tuesday morning: Hotspot on East expansion– Short overview on WP4+5 (recursive dynamic version)– Where do we stand– Next steps– What avenues for the different WPs regarding EU-10?

• Tuesday afternoon: Project management– Reporting– Deliverables– Web-page– Further co-operation, visits ..

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1 capri prague meeting capri-dynaspat, 11./12. april 2005 capri-dynaspat project second project...

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