1 bert fabian, programme officer, transport unit un environment programme global fuel economy...
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Bert Fabian, Programme Officer, Transport UnitUN Environment Programme
Global Fuel Economy Initiative
Outline
• Background and introduction to fuel economy– Benefits and impacts
• Developing national fuel economy policies– Setting a baseline– Technical information and policy options
• GFEI Country Activities
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GFEI and UNEPGlobal Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI)• Established in 2009 • UNEP, FIA Foundation, International Energy Agency,
International Transport Forum, University of California Davis, International Council for Clean Transportation
• Objective: At least double the efficiency of the global fleet from an average of 8L/100 km to 4L/100 km by 2050
UNEP’s role in the GFEI• Co-founder of GFEI• Leader in the UN on Climate Change and Transport• Support to countries to develop fuel economy policies• Focus on middle and low income countries• Technical, policy, financial, networking support
The Contribution of Transport
Growth of light-duty vehicles between 2005 and 2050
Almost all growth is in developing countries
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives, 2012
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
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Billi
on li
ght d
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s 2050: ~3 x 2005
Deep Transport CO2 Reductions in ETP-2012 2 Degree Scenario (2DS)Fuel economy improvement plays largest role, particularly through 2030
Meeting GFEI targets can stabilize global light-vehicle CO2 emissions, despite a near tripling of vehicle fleet
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Types of Air Pollutants
Air pollutants affecting human health
• NOx• Non-methane
hydrocarbons• particulates• carbon monoxide• Toxic emissions (e.g.
benzene)• Heavy metals
Air pollutants affecting the climate• CO2
• Methane• Black carbon• N20
Fuel quality / tailpipe controls
Fuel economy improvement
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What is fuel economy?
• Vehicles use energy, and fuel economy measures energy per unit of vehicle travel. It is the RATE of energy use.• Litres per 100km (Europe)• Km per litre (Japan)• Miles per gallon (United States)
• Fuel economy, fuel efficiency, fuel intensity are all fairly interchangeable terms. But fuel economy always refers to fuel use relative to distance travelled.
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What is fuel economy? (2)
• Fuel economy improvement can be achieved through • Technical changes to vehicles• Changing the types of vehicles bought• Improving vehicle maintenance• Changing the way vehicles are driven (ecodriving)• Reducing traffic congestion
• Fuel economy improvement to vehicles should be part of a broader strategy:• Traffic management• City and regional planning• Promotion of public transit• Etc.
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GFEI Targets
Why Countries need to improve fuel economy?
• Reduce pollutant emissions• Reduce oil dependence• Improve balance of payments• Reduce transport cost consumers and
companies• Reduce cost public transport• Reduce greenhouse gases• Promote domestic economies/jobs
Global Progress on Fuel Economy Policies (2014)
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Potential Fuel Economy Improvements to 2030
From the U.S. NRC 2013 report:
• Light-weighting of up to 25% in 2030, 50% in 2050 relative to 2010
• High efficiency accessories (e.g. air conditioning, lighting, tires)
• High efficiency engines (including but not limited to hybridization)• E.g. 25% improvement from turbocharged, downsized direct
injection gasoline engines
• Overall Impacts:• By 2030, potential for 50% reduction in fuel consumption/CO2 per
km at $2000-3500 per vehicle (through hybridization)• 66% reduction by 2050 at somewhat higher cost
© OECD/IEA 2012
Fuel Economy Improvements are Cost-effective
Fuel savings more than pays for fuel economy improvements in light-duty vehicles
Source: IEA Fuel Economy Roadmap, July 2012
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Diesel
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Fuel savings
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Improving efficiency can save $billions
Countries could dramatically cut their fuel import bills in the future…
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012
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Global Benefits to 2050 from Hitting GFEI Targets (Compared to a frozen baseline; based on IEA ETP 2014 Projections)
In 20502005-2050 Cumulative
Fuel savings (trillion Litres) 1.4 33
CO2 reduction (gigatonnes) 3.8 85
Cost savings (USD trillions) $ 1.2 $ 27
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Fuel economy improving, but not fast enough…
© OECD/IEA 2012
FE trends & market size
Significant fuel economy improvement if policies are in place Size shift vs. technology evolution moderates Non-OECD improvement Growth of markets with worse fuel economy affects global trend
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70 000 000 Sales 2011
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Passenger Car CO2 Standards Globally
Progress towards 2030 GFEI target(We’re about half way there; next several years are critical)
Developing National Fuel Economy Policies
Developing Automotive Fuel Economy Policy at the National Level:
Areas of GFEI Support
I. Plan & Design
Build National Partner Capacity re: Auto Fuel Economy Issues and Approaches Auto Fuel Economy Baseline + Projection
o Data gathering and analysis o Communication and publication of data results o Identification of trends
Coalition Building and Consultation o Private sector participation o Intra-governmental working group(s) o National working sessions
Policy Choice and Design o Consideration of feasible policy options:
Standards (yes/no?) Fiscal instruments (e.g. fee bate) Information (e.g. labeling)
Propose and Communicate National Plan o Drafting of plan o High Level consultation o Presentation to relevant government agencies
II. Implement
Continued Support for National Discussions on Fuel Economy Sustained political pressure and lobbying for fuel economy
Introduction of Draft Plans to National Committee(s), Working Groups Adoption into National Policy Adoption into Law, Official Gazette Development of Standard by Standards Body
III. Monitor
Yearly National Auto Fleet Fuel Economy Measurements Oil use, import data and road transport (LDV) use
IV. Evaluate
Refinement of national policy, standards according to evidence and trends
GFEI:
Technical Expertise
Financial Support
Global Networking
How GFEI Can Help
• Tools– Baseline setting– Overall GFEI toolkit– Policies impact tool– Fee bate tool
• Expert Network & Regional Partners• Sharing Best Practices• Publications
– State of the World Fuel Economy• Financial support
– GEF, EU, GFEI Partners, ….
www.unep.org/transport/gfei/autotool
GFEI Toolkit
• Examples of Auto Fuel Economy Policies• Policy Briefs (fee bates, imports, labels) • Technical Guides (fuels, vehicles, calculating
emissions)• www.unep.org/transport/gfei/autotool
GFEI Toolkit (2)
Setting a Baseline
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Developing a fuel economy baseline for the light-duty vehicle fleet
Baseline – Kenya example
Baseline – Country examples Ethiopia 2005 2008 2010 Average (l/100km) 8.4 8.4 7.9 Diesel 9.3 9.4 9.0 Petrol 7.8 7.4 6.9 Kenya 2005 2008 Average (l/100km) 7.69 7.6 Diesel 8.67 9.09 Petrol 7.52 7.2
Slide 31
Comparison of passenger vehicle GHG standards
Kenya
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Technical Information and Policy Options
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Fuel economy policies – 4 keys
• Fuel economy labeling• Based on tested fuel economy• Need to make available to consumers
before purchase (internet, car window stickers)
• Fuel pricing• Taxation system should at least
internalize externalities• CO2 tax will help differentiate fuels as
well as encourage fuel economy
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Fuel economy policies – 4 keys
• Fuel Economy Standards• Typically corporate average standards• Typically either vehicle mass or size based• Could be applied to 2nd hand vehicles
• Vehicle purchase taxes• Sales tax, registration tax, import duties• Can be differentiated by fuel economy or
CO2 emissions• Germany also differentiates by pollutant
emissions levels
Fuel Economy Policies lmpact Tool (FEPIt)
• simulation tool that assists users in setting auto fuel economy targets
• by estimating the impact of fuel economy policies• Estimates what a set of fuel economy policies (and their
level of ambition, low-high) can deliver in terms of average auto fuel economy in 5-10 + years
• Available with User Guide from: www.unep.org/transport/gfei/autotool/nextsteps/estimating_policy_impacts.asp
FEPIt example: Georgia
1. Baseline auto import fuel economy data for 2008, 2010, 2012
2. Baseline FE policy situation as of 2012:• Moderate fuel tax in place• No fuel economy label• No registration / ownership tax based on CO2• No restriction on used imports (age)• No FE standard
….
RESULTS:
Policy Options Today 2020
Choose your countryGeorgia Policy ImpactFuel Options
Fuel Tax 1 3 Moderate Tax3 High Tax 4 Important
Fuel tax differentiation 3 1 None 1 High 4 Important(lower tax for diesel)
Vehicle Options3 1 None 1 High 4 Important
CO2-Based Vehicle acquisition tax 3 1 None 1 High 4 High
CO2-Based Vehicle ownership tax 3 1 None 1 High 4 Very High
Used Imports restriction 2 2 Low 2 High 4 Small
Labelling
To be deployed by
2020 expected FEif policy status quo 175 gCO2/km
if policies implemented 145 gCO2/km
Where is Georgia heading?
Georgia BAU
Source: adapted from ICCT
Georgia w/FE policy
Using Economic Instruments
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Upcoming: Feebate Simulation Tool
Design of a feebate system
$
g/km CO20FEE
REBATE
slope determines marginal costs and benefits
pivot point can be designed to meet revenue goals
FEE
Example : Mauritius
• Increasing fleet – almost doubled in 10 years; increasing need for petroleum imports; increasing air pollution
• Introduced cleaner fuels - unleaded and low sulfur fuels (50 ppm)
• Introduced a carbon tax:– FEE: 159 CO2 gr/km: Rs 2,000 per gm/km
going to Rs 5,000 above 290 gm/km– REBATE: 158 gm/km: Rs 1000 going to Rs
3,000 below 90 gm/km– Now further tightened to 150 gm/km
GFEI Country Activities
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GFEI Country EngagementPilot CountriesChile
Ethiopia
Indonesia
Kenya
Second Phase CountriesBahrain
Côte d'Ivoire
Egypt
Georgia
Jamaica
Jordan
Macedonia
Mauritius
Montenegro
Morocco
Peru
Philippines
Thailand
Uruguay
Vietnam
Under DiscussionSerbia
Barbados
Benin
Russia
St Lucia
Countries Expressing InterestArmenia
Azerbaijan
Bangladesh
Guatemala
Mali
Mozambique
Nigeria
Paraguay
Sri Lanka
Syria
Togo
Uganda
Zambia
Colombia
Costa Rica
Malaysia
Nepal
Bert FabianTransport Unit Division of Technology, Industry and EconomicsUnited Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
[email protected]/transportwww.globalfueleconomy.org