1. asia evolution 28apr2014_pb

110
Sak I Chayaditt Hutanuwatra Nay Pyi Taw Myanmar 28 April 2014

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Page 1: 1. asia evolution 28apr2014_pb

Sak I Chayaditt Hutanuwatra Nay Pyi Taw Myanmar

28 April 2014

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•  The Dong Son culture (literally "East Mountain culture“) was a Bronze age culture in ancient Vietnam centered at the Red River Valley of Northern Vietnam

•  The Dong Son drum are one of the culture's finest examples of metalworking. More than 200 have been found, across an area from eastern Indonesia to Vietnam & parts of Southern China.

•  Its influence flourished to other parts of Southeast Asia , including the Maritime Southeast Asia.

3,000Y

Dong Son Drum

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World Population | 7,162,119,000

BILLION

7

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Asia 4,299 million

60%

Africa 1,111 million

15% America

972 million

14%

Oceania 38 million

1%

Europe 742 million

10%

World Population

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ASIA… Cradle of Civilization

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Indus Civilization

4,500Y

3,700Y Hwang Ho

Civilization

Harappa - Mohenjo-Daro •  Civilization are the one of the

world's earliest major urban settlements.

•  Mohenjo-daro was the most advanced city of its time, with remarkably sophisticated civil engineering & urban planning

Bronze Age •  Chinese bronze casting and

pottery advanced during the Shang dynasty.

•  The workmanship on the bronzes attests to a high level of civilization.

•  The Anyang site has yielded the earliest known body of Chinese writing, mostly divinations inscribed on oracle bones.

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The Silk, The Chinese character and The print

•  The history of silk began in the 27th century BCE. •  Its use was confined to China until the Silk Road

opened at some point during the later half of the first millennium BCE

•  Silk production first made its way to the West in the A.D. 6th century when monks worked as spies for Byzantine Emperor Justinian brought silkworm eggs from China to Constantinople in hollowed out canes.

http://factsanddetails.com/china/cat9/sub63/item342.html#chapter-3

Chinese characters | 1766 BCE Sample of an Oracle shell with inscriptions of the earliest Chinese characters

Wood block printing | 400 CE Sample of a wood block printing in China

4,500Y

3,780Y 1,614Y

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The Great Wall

•  The wall was built between 220–206 BC by China first Emperor, Qin Shi Huang.

•  Great Wall has on and off been rebuilt, maintained, and enhanced; the majority of the existing wall are from the Ming Dynasty.

•  The Great wall stretches approximately 8,851.8 kilometers from East to West China.

2,500Y

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•  The Ajanta Caves are about 30 rock-cut Buddhist cave monuments which date from the 2nd century BCE to about 480 or 650 CE

•  The caves form the largest corpus of early Indian wall-painting.

2,300Y Ajanta Caves

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Nalanda University

•  The first great university in recorded history, founded in the 5th Century A.D.

•  the first Residential International University of the World.

•  Nalanda is known as the ancient seat of learning. 2,000 Teachers and 10,000 Students from all over the Buddhist world lived and studied at Nalanda.

Noted •  Bologna University 926Y •  Paris University 864Y •  Oxford University 817Y

1,500Y

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NOTHING FOREVER

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COLONIAL AGE

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The Age of Discovery

Vasco da Gama Ferdinand Magellan

•  The Age of Discovery is a historical period of European global exploration that started in the early 15th century .

•  A Portuguese expedition commanded by Vasco da Gama reached India by sailing around Africa, opening up direct trade with Asia. Soon, the Portuguese sailed further eastward, to the valuable spice islands in 1512, landing in China one year later.

Portuguese 596 Y

Spain 522 Y

United Kingdom (British East India company) 414 Y

Dutch (Dutch East India Company) 412 Y

France (French East India Company) 370 Y

596Y

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Colonization Colony Mother Country Year Period

India Portuguese British

512Y 257Y

446Y

Singapore Portuguese British

503Y 197Y 454Y

Malaysia (Malacca)

Portuguese British

503Y 140Y 447Y

Indonesia Dutch 369Y 301Y

Myanmar British 188Y 122Y

Cambodia France 151Y 92Y

Vietnam France 130Y 71Y

Lao France 121Y 61Y

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Technologies

Natural Resources

Demolished Culture

Mono agriculture

langue língua

taal

Sprache language langu

uage langua

language language languag

languag

Languages

Town & Country Planning

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WORLD WAR

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THE WORLD WAR I

Allies | 42 countries led by British, France and Russia Central Powers | 8 countries led by Germany and Austria-Hungary

50 Countries Participated in WWI

Around 16 million people died in the war 100Y

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THE WORLD WAR II

Allies | 51 countries led by Britain, the Soviet Union, and the United States Axis | 10 countries led by Germany, Italy and Japan

61 Countries Participated in WWI

Around 60-80 million people died in the war

21 years from WWI 79Y

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Eastern bloc area, the Soviet Union had expansion to the east of Europe and separate German to east and west. 66Y

International Court of Justice (ICJ) 68Y

Established United Nation 69Y

Start to the end of colonial age in South East Asia 69Y – 57Y

Post-World War II

Marshall Plan (European Recovery Program) 67Y

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The Independence of Colonies 69Y Indonesia The country is the largest economy in Southeast Asia

68Y Philippines HSBC also projects Philippine economy to become the 16th largest economy in the world,.

67Y India The nation’s leading information technology (IT) exporter.

51Y Singapore The country is economic center in Southeast Asia.

66Y Myanmar The land of opportunity in Southeast Asia.

57Y Malaysia Since independence, Malaysia has had one of the best economic records in Asia, with GDP growing an average 6.5% for almost 50 years.

60Y Vietnam The land promoted to be production base for manufacturer.

61Y Laos The country promotes to be renewable energy sources in Asia.

60Y Cambodia The country has very low wage of labor.

51-69Y

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The Rise of Two Superpowers Communism & Socialism Democracy & Capitalism

COLD WAR

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Dissolution of the Soviet Union 29Y Separating to 15 countries

End of Berlin wall 24Y On 9 November 1989, all GDR citizens visited West Germany and West Berlin.

Post Cold War End of cold war 29Y Mikhail Gorbachev as leader of the Soviet Union promoted liberalization of the political landscape and capitalist elements into the economy.

China was accession to WTO. 13Y Socialism is going to reconsidered. Capitalism economics

war in present

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ASIA EVOLUTION

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ASIA  POPULATION  

The change of power to the EAST

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ECONOMIC

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The region’s GDP will account over 40% of world total by 2017

40%

3%

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China

Europe

USA

29%

23%

7%

0%

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19,271,808

16,240,476

10,328,884

9,942,711

5,649,269

4,557,738

4,145,194

3,342,617

3,001,974

2,483,043

2,463,732

2,231,737

CHINA

EUROPEAN UNION

UNITED STATES

JAPAN

GERMANY

SOUTH KOREA

INDIA

BRAZIL

MEXICO

THAILAND

CANADA

RUSSIA

Cars produced in Asia

42MILLION

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AFTA

FTA

WTO

TRADE BARRIER

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Target Markets

HIGH  

MEDIUM  

LOW  

HIGH  

MEDIUM  

LOW  

HIGH  

MEDIUM  

LOW  

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Business Evolution

Business

Movie Theater

Gas Station

Retail Business

Coffee shop &

Restaurant

Residential

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(Reuters) - China's manufacturing engine contracted in the first quarter of 2014, a preliminary private survey showed on Monday, raising market expectations of government stimulus to arrest a loss of momentum in the world's second-largest economy this year.

The weaker-than-expected survey knocked the country's main share index and other Asian markets off early highs, and lopped around a quarter of a U.S. cent from the Australian dollar, which is often used as a proxy for Chinese risk.

24 Mar 2014

NEW WORRIES on China Growth

China owned $1.268 trillion in U.S. debt

http://useconomy.about.com/od/worldeconomy/p/What-Is-the-US-Debt-to-China.htm?r=et

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of the world’s land

surface and consume

Cities cover

of its resources

2%

75%

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in a mere blink on the timescale of human evolution industrial society has been depleting & impairing Earth’s ‘supply system’, at a phenomenal rate’ (Irvine & Pontin)�

If all countries use resources like the average of north American �

The world no longer sustains itself

Overuse of Natural Resources

We would need 4 Planets

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S oc i

a lW o r l d v i e w

Ec o

n o mi c E c

o lo g

i cal

3. Personal Empowerment

1. Building Comm

unity and

tion & Con!ict Resolution

Global Outreach

and Leadership

2. Communication, Facilita-

5. Local, Bioregional and

Embracing Diversity

Creativity & Art

4. Celebrating Life:

2. Community Banks1. Shifting the Global Eco-

4. Lo

cal E

cono

mies

3. Right Livelih

ood

5. Le

gal &

Fina

ncial

Issu

es

nomy towards Sustainability

and Currencies to Ecological Design

Water

1. Green Building3. Appropriate Technology:

Energy4. Appropriate Technology:

and Retro"tting

5 Whole System Approach

2. Local Food

mation of Consciousness

2. Lis

tening

to an

d Re-

Spirituality4. Personal Health1.

Holis

tic W

orldv

iew3. Awakening & Tra

nsfor-

and Planetary Health

5. Socially Engaged

con

necti

ng w

ith Natu

re

Eco – Economic

•  Community economy

•  Community markets

•  Community bank

•  Local economies

•  Low cost living

•  Right Livelihood

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ENERGY

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Peak Oil- Have We Reached?

The world is consuming over 30 billion barrels a year and replacing only a fraction of this with new discoveries. James W. Buckee, President and CEO of Talisman Energy Inc.

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+122% +123% +116% +75%

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+100% fuel average growth in AEC

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22% only

is renewable energy

Energy Share of Global Electricity Production 2012

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5.2% and only

is non-hydro powered

Energy Share of Global Electricity Production 2012

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Global renewable electricity production by region

Europe, America and China are the largest renewable energy producers

22%

30%

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S oc i

a lW o r l d v i e w

Ec o

n o mi c E c

o lo g

i cal

3. Personal Empowerment

1. Building Comm

unity and

tion & Con!ict Resolution

Global Outreach

and Leadership

2. Communication, Facilita-

5. Local, Bioregional and

Embracing Diversity

Creativity & Art

4. Celebrating Life:

2. Community Banks1. Shifting the Global Eco-

4. Lo

cal E

cono

mies

3. Right Livelih

ood

5. Le

gal &

Fina

ncial

Issu

es

nomy towards Sustainability

and Currencies to Ecological Design

Water

1. Green Building3. Appropriate Technology:

Energy4. Appropriate Technology:

and Retro"tting

5 Whole System Approach

2. Local Food

mation of Consciousness

2. Lis

tening

to an

d Re-

Spirituality4. Personal Health1.

Holis

tic W

orldv

iew3. Awakening & Tra

nsfor-

and Planetary Health

5. Socially Engaged

con

necti

ng w

ith Natu

re

Eco – Energy •  Sustainable

transportation

•  Low carbon housing

•  Carbon foot-printing

•  Renewable energy •  Solar •  Wind •  Hydro •  Bio mass •  Bio gas

•  Commuting •  Smaller car •  EV •  Bicycles

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FOOD SAFETY FOOD SECURITY

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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013

Asia Population 4,298,723,000

1,395,749,000

Population grows within 63Y 208%

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Palm Rubber wood

Eucalyptus Acacia mangium

INDUSTRIAL CORP ENERGY CORP

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Bean

Corn

Pineapple

Coffee

Tea

MONOCULTURE

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CHEMICAL AGRICULTURE

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AGROFOREST

INTEGRATED FARMING

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Functions of the river basin

WATER IS EVERY THING

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Water and Land Integrated Management

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S oc i

a lW o r l d v i e w

Ec o

n o mi c E c

o lo g

i cal

3. Personal Empowerment

1. Building Comm

unity and

tion & Con!ict Resolution

Global Outreach

and Leadership

2. Communication, Facilita-

5. Local, Bioregional and

Embracing Diversity

Creativity & Art

4. Celebrating Life:

2. Community Banks1. Shifting the Global Eco-

4. Lo

cal E

cono

mies

3. Right Livelih

ood

5. Le

gal &

Fina

ncial

Issu

es

nomy towards Sustainability

and Currencies to Ecological Design

Water

1. Green Building3. Appropriate Technology:

Energy4. Appropriate Technology:

and Retro"tting

5 Whole System Approach

2. Local Food

mation of Consciousness

2. Lis

tening

to an

d Re-

Spirituality4. Personal Health1.

Holis

tic W

orldv

iew3. Awakening & Tra

nsfor-

and Planetary Health

5. Socially Engaged

con

necti

ng w

ith Natu

re

Food safety &

security

•  Organic food

•  Local food

•  Appropriate technology

•  Water management

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TOURISM

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Global Tourism Towards 2020 International Tourist Arrivals Source: World Tourism Organization

Global International Tourism

1990 2000 2010 2020

940M

400M

674M

2013

1,087M

1,400M 1,000,000,000

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Asia Pacific Towards 2020 International tourist arrivals Source: Prof Haiyan Song et al.

North America Europe

Asia

Global & Asia Pacific Tourism Trend

400M

1990 2013 2020 2000 2010

50M 90M

188M

272M

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NIGHTLIFE

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S oc i

a lW o r l d v i e w

Ec o

n o mi c E c

o lo g

i cal

3. Personal Empowerment

1. Building Comm

unity and

tion & Con!ict Resolution

Global Outreach

and Leadership

2. Communication, Facilita-

5. Local, Bioregional and

Embracing Diversity

Creativity & Art

4. Celebrating Life:

2. Community Banks1. Shifting the Global Eco-

4. Lo

cal E

cono

mies

3. Right Livelih

ood

5. Le

gal &

Fina

ncial

Issu

es

nomy towards Sustainability

and Currencies to Ecological Design

Water

1. Green Building3. Appropriate Technology:

Energy4. Appropriate Technology:

and Retro"tting

5 Whole System Approach

2. Local Food

mation of Consciousness

2. Lis

tening

to an

d Re-

Spirituality4. Personal Health1.

Holis

tic W

orldv

iew3. Awakening & Tra

nsfor-

and Planetary Health

5. Socially Engaged

con

necti

ng w

ith Natu

re

Eco – Tourism §  20%-30% of travellers

aware of needs & values of sustainable tourism

§  10%-20% look for ‘Green’ options

§  5%-10% demand ‘green’ holidays

§  65% of German travellers expect environmental quality

§  42% think that “it is particularly important to find environmentally-friendly accommodation”

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SOCIAL MEDIA

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UNCONTROLLABLE COMMUNICATION

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UNCONTROLLABLE COMMUNICATION

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REPUBLIC

Nowadays over

1,184,000,000 people around the world

351,000,000 in Asia

the

3rd largest in the world

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60% guy couples meet online

20% of couples meet online

20% divorces are blamed on

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NATURAL DISASTER

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46%

19%

23%

7% 5%

WORLD

CO2 EMISSIION

Power Generation

Other Residential

Service

Transportation

Industry

Page 68: 1. asia evolution 28apr2014_pb

World Population and Total Carbon Emissions

7,000,000,000… 400PPM

Page 69: 1. asia evolution 28apr2014_pb

Average Highest Temperature

38

53

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Natural Hazard Events

30

430

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Vehicles ready for shipping being carried by a tsunami tidal wave at Hitachinaka city

Photo credit | AFP/Getty Images and LIFE.com

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The world's costliest disaster as of 2011* 1. Earthquake and tsunami in Japan 2011 2. Earthquake in Kobe, Japan1995 3. Hurricane Katrina in USA 2005 4. Floods in Thailand 2011

*World Bank’s Estimation

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EDUCATION

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Indonesia, 15%

USA, 12.7%

UK, 13.3%

Vietnam, 20.9%

Japan, 9.7%

India, 10.4%

France, 10.4% German, 10.6%

China, 18.2%

Australia, 14.3%

Cambodia, 13.1%

Canada, 12.2%

Iran, 15.4% Lao, 13.2% Mexico, 19.4%

Myanmar, 4.4%

Singrapore,20.5% South Africa, 18.1%

Venezuela, 20.7%

Argentina, 15.3%

Ghana, 33.1% Thailand, 10.4%

Malaysia, 20.9%

Mongolia, 12.2%

New Zealand, 17.9%

Pakistan, 9.9%

Panama, 12.9%

Non-Asian country with high-government spending on education (>15%)

Asian country with high-government spending on education (>15%)

Percentage of Government Spending on Education by Country Up to 20%

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Leave urban to the city

§  many countries in Asia can’t

compare economic wealth to rural

areas

§  the graduate leaves home and

family to the big city for work.

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S oc i

a lW o r l d v i e w

Ec o

n o mi c E c

o lo g

i cal

3. Personal Empowerment

1. Building Comm

unity and

tion & Con!ict Resolution

Global Outreach

and Leadership

2. Communication, Facilita-

5. Local, Bioregional and

Embracing Diversity

Creativity & Art

4. Celebrating Life:

2. Community Banks1. Shifting the Global Eco-

4. Lo

cal E

cono

mies

3. Right Livelih

ood

5. Le

gal &

Fina

ncial

Issu

es

nomy towards Sustainability

and Currencies to Ecological Design

Water

1. Green Building3. Appropriate Technology:

Energy4. Appropriate Technology:

and Retro"tting

5 Whole System Approach

2. Local Food

mation of Consciousness

2. Lis

tening

to an

d Re-

Spirituality4. Personal Health1.

Holis

tic W

orldv

iew3. Awakening & Tra

nsfor-

and Planetary Health

5. Socially Engaged

con

necti

ng w

ith Natu

re

Eco – Education §  Eco education §  Sustainable

education

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HEALTHCARE

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Asia becomes… world class medical hub

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Fast Food McDonald’s aims to open in China 2,000

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Commercial Medical

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Cosmetic surgery Asia is number… 1

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Surprise!

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Alternative Medication

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CULTURAL AND SPIRITUAL

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Born to Be Want to Be

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Coffee Culture

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Culture and Spiritual

Family

Smaller Family

Smaller House

Higher Income

Urban Lifestyle

Quality of Life

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Asian Contemporary Culture

Rice

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POLITICS

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Country Crisis

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Why sustainability? Economic injustice: 20% of richest generates 82% of total world income.

Richest 82.7%

Second 11.7%

Third 2.3%

Fourth 1.9%

Poorest 1.4%

Champion-Glass Distribution

Each horizontal band represents an equal fifth

of the world’s people

20%

80%

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Democracy Democrazy

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Ukraine 2014

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Self Management

Cambodia 2014

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Thailand 2014

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Communist + Socialist

Democracy + Capitalism

Communist + Capitalism

Democracy + Capital Socialist

Or what??

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AEC ERA

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ASEAN Economic Community

NO.5 AEC is to become no.5 in the world’s merchandise trade value amount of 2.4 trillion USD. •  EU 4.47 •  China 3.98 •  USA 3.85 •  Germany 2.73

Page 100: 1. asia evolution 28apr2014_pb

AEC: the largest integrated single market in the world

AEC | the new large integrated single market in the world

Page 101: 1. asia evolution 28apr2014_pb

Emerging Asia GDP Growth in 2030

source : IMF, Standard Chartered Research

China9%

India2%

Other Asia10%

US24%

EU27%

Japan9%

RoW19%

2010 2030

21% 47%

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Network Development

GMS: Opportunities & Challenges; Asian Development Bank/Thailand

1992 2010 2020

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Hum

an Disaster

T

Sust

aina

ble

Dev

elop

men

t

O N

atural Disaster

T Sust

aina

ble

Dev

elop

men

t

O

Scenario A “Do nothing”

Eco-Econ

§  Organic framing

§  Community market

§  Eco tourism

§  People bank

§  Green industry

ECO-Conscious

Intrinsic value

of all being

Eco-Culture

§  Cultural resurgence

§  Health

§  Media literacy

§  Sustainable

education

Eco-Infra

§  Forest enrichment

§  Water

management

§  Land enrichment

§  Renewable energy

§  Green

infrastructure

Post Modern Society

Scenario B “Do something”

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TOUGH DECISION

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POLITICIANS

GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL

CONSULTANTS

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INVESTOR

MANAGEMENT

CONSULTANTS

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International Consultants

Local Consultants

Geographic Language

Culture Trust

Transnational

Page 108: 1. asia evolution 28apr2014_pb

The International Council of Management Consulting Institutes

THE WORLD OF ICMCI Approximately 45,000 Members of ICMCI in 49 Countries

Australia   Austria   Bangladesh   Bulgaria   Canada   China   USA  Ukraine    Brazil  Philippine  

Ireland   Italy    Japan    Jordan   Malaysia   Netherland   Switzerland  Bosnia  &  Herzegovin

a  

Romania  Macedonia  

Denmark   Finland   Germany   Greece   Hungary   India    UK  Cyprus    Korea    Hong  Kong  

Nigeria   Norway   Iran   Singapore   S.  Africa   Sweden  CroaJa  New  Zealand  

Thailand  Turkey  

 Lithuania  Latvia   Russian  Taiwan   Serbia   Uzbekistan   Czech  Republic  

Kyrgyzstan  

COMMON VOICE for global management consultants & setting GLOBAL STANDARD

ICMCI was founded in 1987 “to promote a closer working relationship between all management consulting institutes” Founding members are USA, UK, Canada ICMCI is the biggest global network of management consultants

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Eco Social Enterprise

PROFIT PEOPLE PLANET

Triple bottom line

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“We can change the world and make it a better place.

… It is in your hands to make a difference”

Nelson Mandela