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Advisory Committee on Advisory Committee on Water InformationWater Information

Emergency Response toEmergency Response toHurricanes Katrina and RitaHurricanes Katrina and Rita

Scott KiserScott KiserTropical Cyclone Program ManagerTropical Cyclone Program Manager

NOAA/NWSNOAA/NWS

January 19, 2006January 19, 2006

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Mission of NOAA’s National Mission of NOAA’s National Weather ServiceWeather Service

To provide the best To provide the best meteorologic and hydrologic meteorologic and hydrologic

forecasts, watches and forecasts, watches and warnings possible.warnings possible.

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Satellite Loop of KatrinaSatellite Loop of Katrina

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Satellite Loop of RitaSatellite Loop of Rita

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Before EventBefore Event

• Forecasts

• Watches

• Warnings

• Forecasts

• Watches

• Warnings

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Forecast Advisory 15Forecast Advisory 15Friday August 26 10 PM CDTFriday August 26 10 PM CDT

115kt (135mph)

Forecast for

Advisory 15 Issued

Forecast Track

Katrina Track

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Advisory 20Advisory 20Thursday September 22 10 AM CDTThursday September 22 10 AM CDT

Forecast forSat 9/24/05 04CDT(09Z) 42 Hr Fcst 29.55N 94.13W105kt (120 mph)Moving 11kts (13mph)

Forecast Track

Rita Track

Advisory 20 Issued

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National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane CenterAtlantic Track Forecast ErrorsAtlantic Track Forecast Errors

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Single Track Storm Surge Single Track Storm Surge ForecastForecast

Shows envelope of high water relative to mean sea level (of 1929)

NHC track forecast

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Before EventBefore Event

• Hurricane Liaison Team

• Regional Operations Center

• Equipment and staffing checks

• Briefings to decision makers

• Hydrologists to inland NWS offices

• Staff to state emergency operations centers

• Hurricane Liaison Team

• Regional Operations Center

• Equipment and staffing checks

• Briefings to decision makers

• Hydrologists to inland NWS offices

• Staff to state emergency operations centers

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During EventDuring Event

• Maintain the mission

• Communicate and brief decisionmakers

• Invoke backup if needed

• Maintain the mission

• Communicate and brief decisionmakers

• Invoke backup if needed

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NWS FacilitiesNWS FacilitiesNWS FacilitiesNWS Facilities

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Post StormPost Storm

• Establish communications

• Reroute data and radar information

• Incident meteorologists to support rescue and recovery operations

• Assessment of operations

• Establish communications

• Reroute data and radar information

• Incident meteorologists to support rescue and recovery operations

• Assessment of operations

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What Does the Future Hold?What Does the Future Hold?

• Long term above average hurricane activity

• La Nina and El Nino

• Long term above average hurricane activity

• La Nina and El Nino

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What Does the Future Hold?What Does the Future Hold?

• There are other sites especially vulnerable to disaster

– Houston/Galveston

– New Orleans (again)

– Tampa Bay

– Southwest Florida

– Florida Keys

– Southeast Florida

– New York City/Long Island

– New England

• There are other sites especially vulnerable to disaster

– Houston/Galveston

– New Orleans (again)

– Tampa Bay

– Southwest Florida

– Florida Keys

– Southeast Florida

– New York City/Long Island

– New England