17 April 2010 – EPRAT workshop – London

The initiative

Vincent Coudé du Foresto

for the Blue Dots team

Ignasi Ribas, Hans Zinnecker, Sebastian Wolf, Franck Selsis, Charles Cockell, Lisa Kaltenegger, Giovanna Tinetti, Anthony Boccaletti, Marc Ollivier, Jean-Philippe Beaulieu,

Nuno Santos, Damien Segransan, Fabien Malbet, Alessandro Sozzeti, Ewa Szuszkiewicz, Helmut Lammer, Christoph Keller, Gerard van Belle, Szymon Gladysz,

Chas Beichman, Hiroshi Shibai, Maxim Khodachenko, Gang Zhao, Abhijit Chakraborty

+ 180 other scientists

Elements for a roadmap

27 April 2010 – EPRAT workshop – London

Objectives of the initiative

• Contribute to building a community in Europe around the exoplanets theme

• Converge towards a strategy enabling a more coherent approach to calls for proposals in ground and space based projects...

• ...and most notably in time for the next CfP ESA linked to Cosmic Vision (expected late 2010)

• Beyond that: remain as a permanent structure to federate the community

2

37 April 2010 – EPRAT workshop – London

Deliverables Blue Dots

• Web site (http://www.blue-dots.net)– Draft report & other material available for download

• Preliminary report to CNES february 2009

• Report v1 end March 2009– Call for feedback in the community

• Sep. 2009: Pathways conference– All presentations available online (http://www.pathways2009.net)

– Summary of conclusions available from front page

– Proceedings on track for distribution before summer

• Report stabilized by end of spring 2010

3

47 April 2010 – EPRAT workshop – London

Roadmapping principles

• Science questions drive the roadmap, techniques are tools to address them– But need to break the « pathfinder dilemna »

• Clearly identify matters of consensus and points of debate

• Provide tools for updating the roadmap

• Introduce specific missions as late as possible in the process

4

57 April 2010 – EPRAT workshop – London

A road towards a goal…

5

Goal: characterize a set of habitable planets (H2O liquid)

=> Image + extended spectral analysis=> Nearby targets (~30 pc)

A set means :mass distribution 1-10 M⊕ around GKM stars

67 April 2010 – EPRAT workshop – London

… with milestones along the way

* Statistical study of planetary objects

**  Designate sources suitable for spectroscopic follow-up

*** Carry out spectroscopic characterization– Physics & chemistry of atmosphere / surface

– Maximum information on the system (star, age, other planets…)

6

These define different science potential levelswhich can be achieved on different object classes

=> different difficulties

77 April 2010 – EPRAT workshop – London

Methods and project classes

• Methods:–RV: Radial Velocities

–µlensing

–Transit photometry

–Single Aperture Imaging

–Multiple Aperture Imaging

–Astrometry

–Modelling planetary structures & atmospheres

7

• Project classes:–E (existing)–G (30M€, 5 years)–M (450M€, 10 years)–L (650M€, 15 years)–XL (>1G€, >20 years)

87 April 2010 – EPRAT workshop – London

Timeline methods

8

• There is no silver bullet towards the final goal…

97 April 2010 – EPRAT workshop – London

Hot debates(see synthesis in BD report and Pathways proceedings)

• What is the complementarity between astrometry and RV to discover habitable planets ?

• Is spectroscopic characterization of the atmosphere of telluric exoplanets possible by transit spectroscopy ?

• Do we need to solve the exozodi issue ? If yes, how best to solve it ?

• How to consolidate efforts within the community and the related agencies?

9

10

7 April 2010 – EPRAT workshop – London

Science potential levelMethods and scales

10

11

7 April 2010 – EPRAT workshop – London

Other comments

• Two possible approaches will merge eventually:– Build up technological capability to achieve desired

science potential level on complete samples

– Fast-track science on niche targets (higher science potential levels but on biased / limited samples)

• A long term flagship (imaging) mission is unavoidable for final goal (will need broad international collaboration)

• Complementarity of short and mid-term choices by agencies will be essential (clear lead with minority cross-participation)

11

12

7 April 2010 – EPRAT workshop – London 12

Short term objectives : identify a set of habitable planets

• Well under way (and should be supported) :- COROT, KEPLER, RV (visible, IR for Mstars)

- To be continued with PLATO (and/or TESS)

- Keep exploring the full planet mass spectrum (global picture)

- Keep exploring the global Galaxy picture : µlensing (EUCLID)

• Astrometry can identify a complete set of targets at 10pc (** science), with ground support (RV, VLTI/PRIMA)

- US-led mission (SIM) provides an opportunity for a European minority participation

13

7 April 2010 – EPRAT workshop – London 13

• Opportunities to contribute to progress on coronography and IR interferometry, on the way to become fully convincing for reaching the goal• SPICA + a possible Probe mission to solidify the concepts

• JWST : many lessons to be learned

• Ground programs essential (ELTs…)

• Interferometry for exozodi questions

• Transit (+ off-transit) from space seems the safest choice for spectroscopic characterization (*** science) on a limited sample

• Broad spectral coverage (0.5-20μm or more) is necessary (ambiguities)

• JWST may not do it sufficiently (observing time, S/N ratio ?)

• Enough targets; feasibility proven (well within reach of M-class mission)

• Science case (portfolio of planetary spectra) resilient to descoping

• Capitalizes on European expertise in atmosphere modelling and precision photometry

Mid-term objectives : characterize a set of targets

14

7 April 2010 – EPRAT workshop – London

Long term objective:characterizing a complete set

of habitable planets

• It is too early to fully define a flagship mission for 2025-2035– Current rate of discoveries much faster than typical

time-scale of space programs

• Building up a broad international collaboration and community support will be key to success

14

15

7 April 2010 – EPRAT workshop – London 15

How to build up an international communitycoherent with the goal and its importance

• Globally :• A regular Pathways Conference (next one Flagstaff May 2011)

• An identified place for permanent interactions (ICTP model) ?

• A dedicated, long-term action for outreach (HST model)

• Bring the planetary scientists aboard (and vice versa)

• Pursue the « broad » analysis : epistemological, ethical …

• Specifically for Europe :• A permanent structure to represent the community

• Presenting the Goal to the EU and getting support (FP8)

• Recognized by ESA and ESO

• A dedicated fellowship program

16

7 April 2010 – EPRAT workshop – London

Final resolutionPathways

16

17

7 April 2010 – EPRAT workshop – London

Conclusion

• Blue Dots and EPRAT roadmaps are neither identical nor orthogonal, they are rather like two voices who sing the same song

• Up for discussion:– Where’s the mean ? Where’s the sigma ?

17