1

2.83 and 2.813Manufacturing, Energy and

the EnvironmentT. Gutowski, gutowski@mit.edu

M. Luckyanova, TA, mlucky@mit.edu

Department of Mechanical Engineering

Spring 2009

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2.83 / 2.813 Addresses

• Environmental issues– energy, carbon, toxics, materials use, …

Sustainability

• Uses Engineering Tools– Design, Manufacturing and Thermodynamics, and

develops new ones.. Life Cycle Analysis (LCA), Exergy Analysis, “ELSA”,…

• Interacts with other Disciplines– economics, chemistry, industrial ecology,

paleontology, climatology, …

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Manufacturing

• Value Adding– Jobs, Value Creation, Standard of Living

• Long Reach– Design Decisions control material and energy

flows, Supple Chain, Services

• Shadow Side– Environmental Footprint

– “Excess” Consumption

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If today is a typical day on planet

Earth,

We will lose: 116 square miles of rainforest72 square miles to encroaching deserts, 10 to 100 species. We will add:250,000 more people on this planet, 270,000 tons of nitrogen, and18,000,000 tons of carbon to the atmosphere.

references: FAO UN, Orr, Meyer, Smil, DOE

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Sustainable Development

"...development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs."

UN 1983, “Brundtland Report”

Dr. Gro Harlem Brundtlandformer PM of Norway,

chairwomen of UN commission,“Our Common Future”

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Manufacturing & Sustainability

M I S =∅?

M S

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Essentially…

• This area of study is research

• Connecting our actions on a “small scale” to the actual impact on the planet is not at all trivial

• People want to now what is the right thing to do

• That is exactly what we will explore

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Outline for Today

1. Some Administrative Stuff

2. Manufacturing’s Profile

3. Course Outline

4. The Big Issues

World Population

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/popclockworld.html

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Please fill out card

• Name

• email

• year (e.g. G2 or U4)

• course / program

• Have you taken economics, and/or thermodynamics?

• How would you describe yourself in terms of environmental awareness?

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What is the Biggest Problem?

• How do you know this?

• Where do you get your information?

• Do you agree with your class mates?

• What is behind each of these problems?

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Baloney Detection Kit• How reliable are the sources of this claim? Is there reason to believe that

they might have an agenda to pursue in this case?

• Have the claims been verified by other sources? What data are presented in support of this opinion?

• What position does the majority of the scientific community hold in this issue?

• How does this claim fit with what we know about how the world works? Is this a reasonable assertion or does it contradict established theories?

• Are the arguments balanced and logical? Have proponents of a particular position considered alternate points of view or only selected supportive evidence for their particular beliefs?

• What do you know about the sources of funding for a particular position? Are they financed by groups with partisan goals?

• Where was evidence for competing theories published? Has it undergone impartial peer review or it is only in proprietary publication?

after Carl Sagan

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Environmental ChallengesEnvironmental Concerns Linkage to Manufacturing Processes

1. Global climate change Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from direct and indirect energy use, land fill gases, etc.

2. Human organism damage Emission of toxins, carcinogens, etc. including use of heavy metals, acids, solvents, coal burning…

3. Water availability and quality Water usage and discharges e.g. cooling and cleaning use in particular

4. Depletion of fossil fuel resources Electricity and direct fossil fuel usage e.g. power and heating requirements, reducing agents

5. Loss of biodiversity Land use, water usage, acid deposition, thermal pollution

6. Stratospheric ozone depletion Emissions of CFCs, HCFCs, halons, nitrous oxides e.g. cooling requirements, refrigerants, cleaning methods, use of fluorine compounds

7. Land use patterns Land appropriated for mining, growing of bio-materials, manufacturing, waste disposal

8. Depletion of non-fossil fuel resources Materials usage and waste

9. Acid disposition Sulfur and NOx emissions from smelting and fossil fuels, acid

leaching and cleaning

from Graedel and Allenby 2005

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Manufacturing’s Profile

• Energy

• Carbon

• Waste

• Toxic Materials

• Mixing and Diluting

• Regulations

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Energy Flow in the U.S.

Quadrillion (1015)BTU’s = 1.005 EJ

1 BTU = 1055 J

DOE, 2001

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17

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Total Toxic Releases by Sector

0

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

3,000,000,000

3,500,000,000

4,000,000,000Off-site/Underground Injection

Land

Underground Injection

Water

Air

Mfg. Metal Coal Elec. Chem. Petrol Bulk RCRA

Mining Mining Utilities Wholesale Term Solvent Recovery

EPA, 1998

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Waste by Sector in U.S.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

ManufacturingMining

Oil and Gas

Agricultural

Hazardous

MSW

Coal Ash

Medical

Billion Metric Tons of Waste GeneratedSource: US Congress, OTA-BP-82

Note: A large fraction of the totalweight in the industrial categories iswater. Dry weight of industrial wastescan be as low as 10% of the total.

Major Waste Types by Weight in the United States

2005 EPA data:Ind. ~7 G tMSW~ 0.23 G t

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0102030405060708090

100

Crust Ore Smelt Alloy Product MSW

AluFeCu

Mixing & Dilution

Manufacturing

conc

entr

atio

n

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Environmental Regulations

ref Allen & Shonnard

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Mat’l Production and Mfg

Carbon Dioxide and Toxic Materials per Value of Shipments

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

5

Che

mic

als

Pet

role

uman

d C

oal

Pla

stic

s an

d

Rub

ber

Prim

ary

Me

tal

Fab

ricat

edM

etal

Mac

hine

ry

Ele

ctro

nic

Tra

nspo

rtat

ion Manufacturing industries

We

ight

/Do

llars

CO2 (metricton/$10,000)

Toxic Mat'ls (lb/$1000)

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Manufacturing

• The Big Pieces (energy and carbon) are: fuel production, chemicals, metals, cement, paper products, but..

• Products use fuel..

• Toxics

• Water, not so much,

• Materials, waste management

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Manufacturing

• Significant, often hidden shadow side

• Significant regulations already do exist

• Interconnected with wealth generation

• Need incentives to be Green

Course Outline

http://web.mit.edu/2.813/www/

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2.83/2.813 Schedule Spring 2009 Room 32-155 2:30 to 4 PMMonday Wednesday 4. Introduction

February 9. Carbon Strategies* 11. Footprint

(Tues) 17**. Sustainability 18. Material Flows 23. Life Cycle Analysis 25. Life Style Analysis

March 1. Energy/Exergy 4. Energy/Exergy

9. Growth & Consequences 11. “Coal” discussion16. Discussion & Review 18. Quiz 123. (Spring Break) 25. (Spring Break)30. Materials Production

April 1. Manufacturing6. Use Phase 8. End-of-Life13. Recycling 15. Design for….20. Patriots Day 22. Wind*27. Nuclear* 29. Presentations

May 4. Presentations 6. PV*11. Review 13. Quiz 2

** Monday Schdule on Tuesday, *Guest Speakers TBA

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Grading

Grad Undergrad

1. Quiz I (30%)(40%)

2. Quiz II (30%)(40%)

3. Project (40%) (20%)

100% 100%

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Projects

• Team problems

• New Work

• Technical Journal Style Standards

• Undergrads do mini project for the Grads

• Management part of the project

• Presentation by Grads

• See List on Website

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Suggested Project Topics

• Energy Footprint for Baseball Teams

• Carbon Neutral Iron Foundry

• Solid Free From Mfg

• Develop “Green” Contest for 2.810

• Electronics at end-of-life (eol)

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Homeworks

• Posted on the Web

• Answers Appear One Week later

• Not graded, but…

• Office Hours are posted for discussion– TG Rm 35-234: Tu 2-3, W 4-5– ML Rm 25-005: Tu 4-5, Th 4-5

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Reading List

See webpage for the rest…

Text books:

1.        Freese, Barbara, 2003.  Coal A Human History, Penguin Books.

2.        Smil, Vaclav, 2008.  Energy in Nature and Society, MIT Press

3.        Hendrickson, Chris T., Lave, Lester B. and Matthews H. Scott, 2006.  

Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Goods and Services An

Input – Output Approach, Resources for the Future Press.

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The Big Issues

• Sustainability

• Energy and Carbon (GHGs)

• Scale of the problem

• How to partition the problem?

• How to know a strategy will work?

• This is not business as usual

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Manufacturing & Sustainability

• Various interpretation of sustainability– Economics– Ecology– Thermodynamics

• Various goals of manufacturing– Growth– Minimization of costs

• Responsible manufacturing

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Scales: From Process / Product to The Planet

•Please Do Your Ecological Footprint for Wed 2/11 http://www.footprintcalculator.org/

•Scale of the Analysis

•Scale of our Use

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Carbon Intensity of World and US

• 24 Billion Metric Tons CO2

• 6 Billion People, ~4 Tons/person

• 5700 Million Metric Tons CO2

• 275 Million People, ~20 Tons/person

2002

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Partitioning the Problem

Production Consumption

Earth

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Mining Materials Mfg Distribution Use Disposition

0m&8m&

kipm& kopm&

0m&8m&

kipm& kopm&

0m&8m&

kipm& kopm&

0m&8m&

kipm& kopm&

0m&8m&

kipm& kopm&

0m&8m&

kipm& kopm&

Recycle, Remanufacture, Resell, Reuse

System Boundaries: LCA

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Light Bulbs and Mercury

Allen and Shonnard

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Light Bulbs and Mercury

Allen and Shonnard

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LCA Issues

• Assigning boundaries

• Assigning responsibility

• Aggregation of results

• Normalization

• Benchmarking for improvements

• Value Laden

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Types of LCA

• LCI Vs LCA

• Streamlined

• Process

• Input/Output

• Hybrid

• Many other flavors, and softwares…

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LCA Vs ELSA

• Environmental Life Style Analysis– No such thing as a “sustainable product”– There are however, products with

comparatively smaller impacts on the environment

– Reorients discussion to people not products– Other advantages and some disadvantages

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Disaggregating the Problem

Services & Goods

Impact

Person

Services & Goods PopulationImpact ××=

T A P I ××=

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for infinitesimals

T

T

A

A

P

P

I

I Δ+

Δ+

Δ=

Δ

Population Growth

Affluence = GWP per captia

Technology

RIN P0 ROUT ][

][

emigrationnimmigratio

deathbirthR

−+−=Δ

PRdt

dP⋅Δ=

Population Dynamics

2006 t

P

World

6.5 B

1965

3.2 B

dtRP

dP⋅Δ= tR

oePP ⋅Δ=

no iPP )1( +=

in the discrete form…

Currently i ≈1%

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We are adding 70-80 M people/yr

Add one Germany or 2X Canada each year

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for infinitesimals

T

T

A

A

P

P

I

I Δ+

Δ+

Δ=

Δ

Affluence = GWP per captia

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Affluence and GDP, GWP

• GDP = Gross Domestic Product

• GWP = Gross World Product

• GWP = market value of all goods and services produced for a year

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GWP, i ≈ 5% for 2004, 2005

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To improve, we want…

0 <Δ

+Δ

+Δ

=Δ

TT

AA

PP

II

1%+4%-5%=0Based onglobalestimates…

We must improve our environmental performance ongoods and services by 5% a year just to stay even.

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F=P(1+i)n

5.4%/yr

How hard is it to improveby 5% per year?

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Examples of improvements

• Pig Iron (energy 1800–1984) 1.1%

• Aluminum (energy 1900–1987) 1.0%

• Air Travel (energy 1971–1997) 3.7%

• Nitrogen Fertilizer (energy 1930-1989) 4.4%

• Machine tools (time 1900-2000) 5.4%

• Moore’s Law (2x in 2 yrs) 41%

• Kyoto Protocol ~0.4%

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Yes 5%/yr is possible, but…

• it will require incentives

• will 5% improvement in efficiency result is

a 5% reduction in scale?

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Carbon emissions

Carbon =Population×GWPPop

×EnergyGWP

×CarbonEnergy

ΔCarbonCarbon

= +1% + 2% −1.25% −0.25% = +1.5%

These are rough averages over the last 3 decades, data taken or calculated from Pacala & Socolow, Science 2004

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56see www.Harvard.edu

Fertility and Affluence

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Affluence and Energy are correlated

From Smil

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From a Production point of view

Energy Used Production (P) or Consumption 1/efficiency (e)

Production

ImpactProduction Impact ×=

e

1PI ×=

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P

P

e

e Δ≥

Δ

Differentiating

01

2≤−=

dtde

eP

dtdP

edtdI

Normalizing, and taking yearly increments, you are an environmentally benign producerwhen…

The Gold Standard

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Note that “e” and “P” are coupled!

•e = f (P) Increased production leads to increased efficiency through

learning effects and economies of scale

•P = f (e) Increased efficiency can lead to reduced prices and increased demand. The phenomenon is called the “rebound effect”

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Engineering Strategies

source sink

recirculation

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Engineering Strategies

1. Reduction at Sink• pollution prevention

2. Reduction at Source• substitution• efficiency

3. Recirculation• reuse, remfg, recycle

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Goals for this Course

• Understanding

– the pieces (engineering)

– the big picture (more than engineering)

• Tools

– Life Cycle Analysis, Exergy Analysis,

Materials Flow Analysis, Economics….

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Big Picture Solutions

• free market solutions ?– volunteer standards?– consumer choices?– make people richer?– charge for “externalities”– market failures e.g. eco-system services

• government intervention– ecological taxes– efficiency standards– cap and trade programs

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For Next Time:

• Dr. Julian Allwood Seminar• Read papers by 1) Pacala and Socolow, and

article from 2) McKinsey for Monday • Reading on IPAT, Waggoner…• Find Readings, homeworks at:• http://web.mit.edu/2.813/www/

Oh yes, back to the …….World Population

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/popclockworld.html