1 2011 flexworkresearch centre international conference external forms of flexibility in the labour...

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2011 FlexWorkResearch Centre International Conference

External forms of flexibility in the labour market: competition or complementary

Leuven, October 27-28, 2011

“Working transitions in the Spanish labour market: a flexicurity approach ”

Ángel Alonso Domínguez

University of [email protected]

Universidad de Oviedo

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FlexWorkResearch Centre

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Introduction

- Study Spanish labour market in a dynamic way

- Modern Labour Market?• flexible: business strategies, market pressures• safe: individual reorientations, new family situations

- Several studies of career paths using the LFS (G. Serrano, Garrido, Toharia)

- No analysis from a flexicurity approach in Spain exploiting information of Continous Sample of Working Lives (MCVL)

- Flexicurity influential concept in academic and political fields

-Answer the research question:

• Could flexicurity be developed as an alternative capable of ending the endemic problems the Spanish labour market faces?

2Working transitions in the Spanish labour

market: a flexicurity approach

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Concept, problems and justification (1)

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Flexicurity : new approach for

labour stability

- Flexicurity: combination of flexibility and security applied to the labour market

-Flexibility dimension:• ability to adjust the workload (external) without redundancies (internal)• great adaptability of the workforce (functional) → higher levels of productivity

- Security dimension:• high level of social protection• lifelong learning strategies (employability)• active policies (redeployment)

Working transitions in the Spanish labour market: a flexicurity approach

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Concept, problems and justification (2)

- Geographic scope: Spain. Problems in labour market.

- Analysis focuses on period 2005-2010:• covered by MCVL• reduction in labour demand and high turnover employment / unemployment• highly–skilled profesionals, active and open to ongoing job training

- Two different trends: • 2005-2007 final stage of unprecedented expansion of Spanish economy. Decisions.• 2008-2010 effects of economic crisis on employment. Structural defects.



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Theoretical approaches

- Research on labour markets: individual variables as explanatory factors (Human Capital)- Human capital theories: short scope for the study of modern labour markets- Complemented by institutionalists’s theories:• Segmentation and dualization (Doeringer and Piore, 1983,1985)• Risk society (Beck, 1992; Giddens, 1993, Esping-Andersen, 1999)• Transitional Labour Markets (Schmidt, late 90’s)

- TLM: appropriate framework for thesis: it offers a line of solid research to flexicurity approach - TLM as analytical concept and flexicurity as a normative one → the two sides of the same vision:• social and economic policy based on the long term• balance of interests for all parties (win-win strategies) • pay attention in diversity, flexibility and transitions to and from employment



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- Data source → MCVL:• The only one which lets us know in detail the work histories of Spanish workers• Social Security records: observation of exact beginning and end of work spells• Allows static and dynamic vision of people (registered, pensions,

unemployment benefits)• Self-contained series of annual samples• Non-stratified random sampling (4% of the reference population)• Information available in micro-data

- Two ways to approach the sample:• Cross-sectional → single wave (short term)• Longitudinal → panel database with some peculiarities (long term)

- Advantages over the LFS• It covers a period longer than the LFS, and the previous path (see table 1 and

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Methodology (1)


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Methodology (2)

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Table 1. Duration of employment until 2005

Table 2. Duration of unemployment until 2005

Frecuency PercentageValid

percentageCumulative percentage

Valid less than 1 year 8980 5,1 5,1 5,1

1 to 5 years 31973 18,2 18,2 23,3

5 to 10 years 36140 20,6 20,6 43,9

10 to 20 years 54169 30,8 30,8 74,7

20 to 30 years 30076 17,1 17,1 91,8

more than 30 years

14462 8,2 8,2 100,0

Total 175800 100,0 100,0

Frecuency PercentageValid

percentageCumulative percentage

Valid less than 1 year 44185 25,1 25,1 25,1

1 to 3 years 31967 18,2 18,2 43,3

3 to 10 years 16987 9,7 9,7 53,0

more than 10 years

82661 47,0 47,0 100,0

Total 175800 100,0 100,0


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Methodology (3)

- MCVL other advantages:• Covers 95 % of the employed in Spain• It uses 50 different variables (personal data, jobs, employers, work situations…)• Ensures the selection of the same individuals in successive versions (allows longitudinal studies based on the life course → fundamental in flexicurity analysis)• Study of small groups, people with discontinuous work stories

- MCVL disadvantages:• High cost of set-up (data cleansing and management) • Absence of information not required in the database



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Preliminary hypothesis

• High percentage of the population has many difficulties in accessing the labour market and transitions are blocked

• Access to the labour market as a temporary worker is not an insurmountable obstacle to future achievement of a more permanent one

• Improper use of some contractual arrangements that could serve as gateways to a more stable employment



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Results

- Results taken from the MCVL 2005-2010

- Selected people in 2005 employment spells of more than 3 months

- Bi-annual comparisons (transitions different situations)

- Except comparisons from unemployment: started in 2006. - Criterion for selecting the sample ruled out everyone who did not have

employment spells in 2005. Not unemployed people.

- Total number of spells collected: more than 12 m.- 777,179 people


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Transition only_employment / only employment

- Percentage of workers who have been in the situation only_employment is decreasing on-year.

- 2005 to 2006: 90% of workers remained employed throughout the year

- 83% between 2008 and 2009

- Re-established to 87% between 2009 and 2010 (job losses had slowed / unemployment rate stabilized)

Graph 1. transition only_employment / only employment


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Transition only_unemployment / only unemployment*

- Between 2006 and 2007: 37% of people remained in unemployment category

- 52% between 2009 and 2010.

- Figures grow linearly

- More than half only had spells of unemployment in 2009 remained so in 2010

Graph 2. transition only_unemployment / only unemployment


* Unemployed: workers who have lost their jobs and are receiving some type of unemployment benefits

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Transition only_unemployment / inactive*

- The transfer between the two-years has also increased considerably

- Between 2006 and 2007: 19% had moved from unemployment to inactivity

- From 2008 to 2009: 26%

-2009-2010 the figure decreased to 16% ("stability" in unemployment /entitlement lost)

Graph 3. transition only_unemployment / inactive


* Inactive: being employed in 2005 but not included in successive waves in any of the other categories: they have left the labour market, or unemployed but not entitled to contributory benefits

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Transition inactive / inactive

- 85% of the sample population had not left the inactivity between 2006 and 2007

- 94% from 2009 to 2010.

-Part of the population has stopped looking for a job: difficulty of finding one

-Part of the population has stopped receiving benefit taxesGraph 4. transition inactive / inactive


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Transition only_unemployment / only employment

- The transfer of quotas among only_unemployment and only_employment is decreasing year by year

- 14% between 2006 and 2007

- Only 5% between 2009 and 2010

- Difficulties in finding employment

Graph 5. transition only unemployment / only employment


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Employment policies, entry doors and gateways

- Entry doors and gateways:- Comparative analysis among three waves (first, intermediate, last)

• time one : position the worker had in MCVL-2005 - Three point times • time two : position in 2008 • time three : position in 2010

- Graphs 5 and 6 reflect:• people having temporary contract in 2005 but permanent in 2008 and in

2010• people having part-time contract in 2005 but full-contract in 2008 and in

2010


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Type of contract and transitions

-73% of workers with temporary contracts in the first observation, 2005, had achived a permanent one at time two, 2008, and remained so in 2010

-Only 27% of workers on a temporary contract starting continued in the same situationin 2010 after being permanent in 2008.

- A high percentage manage to change from temporary to permanent: temporary contract could be a good gateway to a typical job

Graph 6. Type of contract


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Working time and transitions

- The working time the worker enters the labour market (if part-time) does not determine in a great way their future position

-74% achieved at times two and three a full-time starting with a partial one

-Only 26% remained part-time in both observations – 2005 and 2010 - after a full-time work in 2008.

- For a not insignificant percentage of workers part-time could be a good gateway to a typical job

Graph 7. Working time


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Discussion

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- Discontinuity, instability, and difficulties to make transitions and to complete work career paths.

- Change in the Spanish labour market to ensure job transitions and provide dynamism for the job search

- Undertake labour market modernization → improving organizational and functional aspects (internal flexibility) - Activation programs could facilitate employability of workers with unstable careers (effective and commitment)

- Exploiting contractual arrangements could serve as gateways to more stable employment

- New Paradigm of Labour Relations in Spain, in the key of

flexicurity


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Further research

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- Evolution of permanent / temporary workers after labour reforms - Influence of labour market entry age in transitions and trajectories (scarring effects)

- Flexicurity by regions (current situation) and activity sectors - Percentage of unemployment covered by benefit taxes

- Develop a data matrix with transitions between different work situations


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Thank you very much for your attention.

Questions and comments are welcome.


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