1

2

Prepared for: International Sweetener Colloquium

Presenter: Paul Meyers

February 10, 2009

3

Soybeans

4

Monthly Average of Nearby Soybean FuturesMonthly Average of Nearby Soybean Futures

4.25

5.25

6.25

7.25

8.25

9.25

10.25

11.25

12.25

13.25

14.25

15.25

1/00 1/01 1/02 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09

MONTHLY1/00 - 1/09

DOLLARS PER BUSHEL

5

Monthly Average of Nearby Soybean Oil FuturesMonthly Average of Nearby Soybean Oil Futures

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1/00 1/01 1/02 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09

MONTHLY1/00 - 1/09

CENTS PERPOUND

7

RBD PALM OIL PRICES, CIF, U.S. PORTSRBD PALM OIL PRICES, CIF, U.S. PORTSRBD PALM OIL PRICES, CIF, U.S. PORTS

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

10/00 10/01 10/02 10/03 10/04 10/05 10/06 10/07 10/08

MONTHLY10/00 - 1/09

CENTS PERPOUND

8

ANNUAL U.S. SOYBEAN BALANCE SHEET ANNUAL U.S. SOYBEAN BALANCE SHEET

03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 * 08/09*

Acreage (Mil.) Planted 73.4 75.2 72.0 75.5 64.7 75.7 Harvested 72.5 74.0 71.3 74.6 64.1 74.6

Yield (Bu./A.) 33.9 42.2 43.0 42.9 41.7 39.6

-----------------------------------Million Bushels--------------------------------

Production 2,454 3,124 3,068 3,197 2,677 2,959Beginning Stocks 178 112 256 449 574 205 Supply 1/ 2,638 3,242 3,327 3,655 3,261 3,173

Crush 1,530 1,696 1,739 1,806 1,801 1,670Export 885 1,103 947 1,118 1,161 1,140Other Use 111 187 192 157 94 155 Total Use 2,526 2,986 2,878 3,081 3,056 2,965

Ending Stocks 112 256 449 574 205 208

End Stocks/ 4.4 8.6 15.6 18.7 6.7 7.0 % Of UseChi. Cash Price 8.23 5.93 5.65 6.96 12.58 ($/Bu.)

*Connell Estimates

1/ Includes imports.

9.25-9.65

9

USDA 2008 U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION ESTIMATES AND 2008/09 U.S. SOYBEAN CARRYOVER STOCKS ESTIMATESUSDA 2008 U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION ESTIMATES AND 2008/09 U.S. SOYBEAN CARRYOVER STOCKS ESTIMATES

Date

140

Carryover Stocks Estimates

3,105

3,105

U.S. 2008 Soybean

-----------------------------million bushels----------------------------

185

175

May 9

U.S. 2008/09 Soybean

October 10

2,959

220

205

205

205

225

2,921

November 10

December 11

2,973

3,000

June 10

July 11

Production Estimates

August 12

135

135

October 28

2,921

September 12

January 12

2,934

2,983

2,938

10

U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTIONU.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

*USDA Estimate

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200

3300

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*

YEARS

MILLION BUSHELS

11

U.S. SOYBEAN EXPORTSU.S. SOYBEAN EXPORTS

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*

YEARS

MILLION BUSHELS

*Connell Estimate

12

SOUTH AMERICAN SOYBEAN PRODUCTIONSOUTH AMERICAN SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

Brazil 57.5

44.0

3.8

1.3

106.6

U.S. 80.5

-44

+24

4.0

2.0 1.0

6.8

CROP YEAR% Change

08/0707/08*

115.6

1.6

6.2

86.8

-7

+11

59.0

48.8

61.0 -6

-546.2

72.8

115.0103.2

83.4

53.0

39.0

57.0

40.5

3.6

2.1

*Connell estimate.

Total

Argentina

Paraguay

98.0

85.5

Bolivia

--------------million metric tonnes---------

COUNTRY 04/05 05/06 06/07 08/09*

13

CHINA: SOYBEAN IMPORTSCHINA: SOYBEAN IMPORTSCHINA: SOYBEAN IMPORTS

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*

OCT-SEP YEARS

MIL. TONNES

*Projected.

14

U.S. SOYBEAN CRUSHINGSU.S. SOYBEAN CRUSHINGS U.S. SOYBEAN CRUSHINGS

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*

YEARS

MILLIONBUSHELS

*Connell Estimate

15

U.S. SOYBEAN CARRYOVERSTOCKS-TO-USE RATIO

U.S. SOYBEAN CARRYOVERSTOCKS-TO-USE RATIO

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*

YEARS

RATIO PERCENT

* Connell Estimate.

16

ANNUAL U.S. SOYBEAN OIL BALANCE SHEETANNUAL U.S. SOYBEAN OIL BALANCE SHEET

07/08 08/09* 09/10*

--------------Million Pounds-------------

1,779 1,675 1,730

Beginning Stocks 3,085 2,483 2,088Production 20,568 19,095 19,725Imports 65 60 60 Supply 23,718 21,638 21,873

Biodiesel Use 2,981 3,100 3,150 Total Domestic Use 18,327 17,850 17,950

Exports 2,908 1,700 1,850 Total Use 21,235 19,550 19,800

Ending Stocks 2,483 2,088 2,073

52.1 30.8 28.5-30.5

*Connell Estimates

Decatur Cash Price (¢/lb.)

Oct-Sep Crush (Mil. Bu.)

17

U.S. SOYBEAN OIL USED IN BIODIESEL PRODUCTIONU.S. SOYBEAN OIL USED IN BIODIESEL PRODUCTION

50

250

450

650

850

1050

1250

1450

1650

1850

2050

2250

2450

2650

2850

3050

3250

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*

OCT-SEP YEAR

MIL. POUNDS

U.S. SOYBEAN OIL USED IN BIODIESEL PRODUCTION

*Projected.

18

U.S. SOYBEAN OIL EXPORTSU.S. SOYBEAN OIL EXPORTS

*Connell Estimate

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*

YEARS

MILLIONPOUNDS

19

MONTHLY U.S. SOYBEAN OIL STOCKS,BEGINNING OF MONTH

MONTHLY U.S. SOYBEAN OIL STOCKS,BEGINNING OF MONTH

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

2006/07-2008/09

06/07 07/08 08/09MILLIONPOUNDS

20

U.S. SOYBEAN PLANTED ACREAGEU.S. SOYBEAN PLANTED ACREAGE

*USDA Estimate

U.S. SOYBEAN PLANTED ACREAGE

57

59

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

77

79

81

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09*

YEARS

MILLION ACRES

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U.S. SOYBEAN BALANCE SHEETU.S. SOYBEAN BALANCE SHEET

Item

Acreage (Mil. Acres)

Planted 64.7 75.7 79.5 79.5

Harvested 64.1 74.6 78.5 78.0

Yield (Bu./A.) 41.7 39.6 42.0 39.5

Supply (Mil.bu.)

Beginning Stocks 574 205 208 208

Production 2677 2959 3295 3080

Total Supply 1/ 3261 3173 3510 3295

Use (Mil.bu.)

Crush 1801 1670 1730 1700

Exports 1161 1140 1220 1170

Other Use 94 155 175 160

Total Use 3056 2965 3125 3030

Ending Stocks (Mil.bu.) 205 208 385 265

Cash Prices

Loan Rate ($/bu.) 5.00 5.00

Chicago Soybeans ($/bu.) 12.58 9.45

Decatur Soybean Meal 48% ($/ton) 333 286

Decatur Soybean Oil (¢/lb.) 52.0 30.8

*Connell Estimates

1/ Includes imports.

2007/08MostLikely

LowYield2008/09*

9.50-10.25

280-295

36.0-38.0

2009/10*

7.75-8.50

242-257

28.5-30.5

5.00 5.00

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Nearby Futures Price Forecasts for Soybeans and Soybean Products

Nearby Futures Price Forecasts for Soybeans and Soybean Products

Oct-Dec

Apr-Jun*Jul-Sep*Oct-Dec*

2010Jan-Mar* 30.0-32.0 246-261

10.65

Soybean Oil (¢/lb.)

30.07.40

29343.937.434.1

8.84

Soybeans ($/bu.) Soybean Meal ($/ton)

7.79215212240

2007Jan-Mar

57.261.354.233.6

13.3713.8713.188.97

Apr-Jun

300-310

Jul-SepOct-Dec

2008Jan-Mar

361358350

265

32.0-33.5

* Connell estimates

Apr-JunJul-Sep

2009Jan-Mar* 9.50-10.00

9.25-10.00 31.5-33.5

8.00-8.75

287-3028.50-9.257.75-8.50

30.5-32.5 265-28029.0-31.0 243-258