1-1 management of technology technology forecasting technology winners
TRANSCRIPT
1-1Management of Technology
Technology Forecasting
Technology Winners
1-2Management of Technology
Technology Forecasting
The question that faces the long-range planner is not what we should do tomorrow, it is:
What do we have to do today to be ready for an uncertain tomorrow.
1-3Management of Technology
Technology Forecasting:Why Do It ?
Surveillance of Total Environment
Estimate Time Scale for Important Events
Threats and Opportunities Continued Monitoring of Trends Reorientation of Company Policy Improve Operational Decision
Making
1-4Management of Technology
Technology ForecastingDefinition
Foreseeable Specific Scientific Refinement Promises to Serve Some Function Quantitative Conclusions; Levels
of Confidence; Given Time Frame Specific Level of Support Logical Analysis...Consistent
Results
1-5Management of Technology
Business EnvironmentPolitical,
Technological, Industrial..
Needs
Financial support
New Product
1-6Management of Technology
Technological Forecasting
Technique Classifications– Exploratory (From past-present-future)
– Normative (From future)
Paths of Technological Progress– The “S” Curve (with an selected attribute)•Human intellect•Physical limit
1-7Management of Technology
Para
mete
r of
per f
orm
ance
Time
Possible paths of Progress
Physical limit
A B
C
1-8Management of Technology
Para
mete
r of
per f
orm
ance
Time
Effect of Emergent New Technology
New Technology
A B
C
1-9Management of Technology
Technological ForecastingDesired Information
Likely Performance Levels with No New Stimuli
Approach of Natural or Physical Limit
Stimuli which May Change Support or Progress
New Technologies/Crossover Points
Performance Milestones
1-10Management of Technology
Technological WinnersRadical Innovations
Technological Potency or Importance
Market Opportunity or Business Advantage
1-11Management of Technology
The R&D Effort Portfolio
TechnicalOpportunity
Market Opportunity
SelectiveEmphasis
LimitedSupport
LimitedSupport
SelectiveEmphasis
LimitedSupport
SelectiveEmphasis
HeavyEmphasis
HeavyEmphasis
HeavyEmphasis
1-12Management of Technology
Technological WinnersDeterminants of
Success
Technical Potency
Inventive MeritEmbodiment Merit
Market Opportunity
Operational MeritMarket Merit
1-13Management of Technology
Technological WinnersRetrospective Examples Transistor in Commercial Electronics
Inventive Merit - Size, Weight, reliabilityEmbodiment Merit - Portable radioOperational Merit - Low shipping costsMarket Merit - New growth market
1-14Management of Technology
Technological Winners“Prospective”
Examples Computerized Automobile Engine
Inventive Merit
Embodiment Merit
Market Merit
Operational Merit
1-15Management of Technology
Technological Winners“Prospective”
Examples Computerized Automobile Engine
Inventive Merit - Reduced pollutionEmbodiment Merit - Stable performance
Market Merit - Via substitution
Operational Merit - Expansion of operation
1-16Management of Technology
Technological WinnersIssues
Radical Vs. Evolutionary Innovation
Embodiment/Operational (e.g., VCR)
Forecasting
1-17Management of Technology
Technology ForecastingForecasting Techniques
Trend Extrapolation Precursor Trends - Curve
Matching Technological Substitution Delphi Scenarios Relevance Trees Technology Monitoring