09/21/2010 national petroleum council future transportation fuels study - task group/subgroup...

09/21/2010

National Petroleum CouncilFuture Transportation Fuels Study -

Task Group/Subgroup OverviewSeptember 20 - 21 CSC Meeting

Demand Task Group

1

09/21/2010

Transportation demand models share similar structure

Fuels

Vehicles

Transportation System Efficiency (Operations)

Travel Activity (VMT, modal choice)

Transportation infrastructure planning and investment

GHG

Fuel = VMT / fuel efficiency + fuel burned in operations

Carbon = fuel consumed * carbon intensity

FTF S&D focus on Fuels & Vehicles

Demand has input

here

Mostly beyond scope

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Demand Task Group/Passenger Subgroup – Scope

DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only

• Discuss trends of passenger mobility needs and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by mode.

• Summarize studies on the effect changes in the cost of driving have on light duty vehicle (LDV) VMT.

• Discuss current trends of investment in mass transit.

• Summarize studies on the effect changes in relative costs have on passenger mode choices and LDV sales.

• Discuss opportunities and limits to alter the passenger mode mix

• Provide a range of possible passenger VMT estimates by mode, conditioned by policy pathways.

• Summarize studies on the impact of congestion on fuel consumption and new technologies to improve traffic flow and fuel efficiencies.

• Summarize studies on LDV choice.

• Discuss and provide a range of possible new LDV sales distributions, given alternative fuel and technology offerings.

09/21/2010

Demand Task Group/Truck Subgroup – Scope

• The truck demand group will be looking at several factors that might influence heavy duty truck fuel demand in the future. These include operational changes, economic factors, trade issues, trucking government regulations, and technology impacts.

• Government related factors that might impact heavy duty fuel consumption include:– Changes in truck weight and length regulations – Reduced idling regulations– Reduced speed limits– Truck only highways

• Other factors we are considering include:– Changes in filling back loads or efforts to reduce empty miles – Better technology in communications, tracking, and routing– Potential changes in delivery points driven by Panama Canal and

Northwest Passage – Reductions in packaging and consumer products

• The acceptance and penetration of alternative fuels and new technologies, like natural gas or hybrid, will also be investigated.

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Demand Task Group/Rail Subgroup – Scope


• Discuss current and future trends in ton miles and VMT• Discuss current trends in rail infrastructure investment• Summarize studies on operational changes to improve fuel efficiency.

These might include advances in– Car, rail or train control technology

– Freight handling technology

– Dispatching and control technology

• Discuss new locomotive technologies and opportunities for alternate fuels

• Discuss opportunities and barriers for electrification.• Discuss opportunities and barriers to greater rail sharing between freight

and passenger• Discuss the impact significant reductions in coal demand would have on

the industry; specifically stranded assets and opportunity for converting capacity to ag and container freight.

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Demand Task Group/Air Subgroup – Framing Questions


• What are the reference case long-term traffic and capacity industry growth projections for both domestic and international operations and what are the underlying assumptions?

• How will changes in energy prices impact these projections?

• Is the range of projections sensitive to the mix of leisure and business traffic?

• Has the domestic commercial air market matured and how will growth rates be impacted by infrastructure constraints?

• What will be the impact of the Next Generation Air Traffic Control system on airline operations and industry fuel consumption?

• What will be the impact of next generation airframes and engines?

• What is the prospect of Carbon Taxes?

• Will high speed rail have a material impact on air travel demand in short-haul markets?

• What will be the relative pricing of fossil-based and alt-fuels?

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Demand Task Group/Water Subgroup – Scope


• Discuss current and future trends in ton miles and VMT.

• Discuss current trends in inland and coastal waterway infrastructure investment. (Will it support reference case growth?)

• Discuss any new operational and vessel technologies that will make water transport a more effective competitor to rail and truck

• Discuss the impact of new fuels and technologies on fuel efficiency

• Discuss the impact significant reductions in coal demand would have on waterway transportation. Or significant increase in ag products for biofuels.

09/21/2010

Demand Task Group/Subgroup – Membership

Core Team

Deanne Short Chair Caterpillar Inc.

Chris Sultemeir Co-Chair Wal-Mart Stores, Inc

John Conti Govt. Co-Chair Department of Energy

Paul Holtberg Alt. Govt. Co-Chair Department of Energy

Benjamin Oliver, Jr. Secretary National Petroleum Council

Jeff Cumpata Chair, Air United Airlines

Walter McManus Chair, LDV choice University of Michigan

Ralph Mullinger Chair, Psngr V.M.T. Marathon Oil Co.

John Gray Chair, Rail Association of American Railroads

Bob Costello Chair, Truck American Trucking Association

TBD Chair, Water


09/21/2010


Arthur Rypinski Member U.S. Department of Transportation

Deron Lovaas Member Natural Resources Defense Council

Mitch Jackson Member FedEx Corporation

Paul Sankey Member Deutsche Bank AG

Brian Chase Member Chevron Corporation

John Heimlich Member Air Transport Association of America

Norman Brinkman Member General Motors Company

Robert Sturtz Member United Airlines

Vincent G. Yuskiewicz Member Exxon Mobil Corporation

Roland Hwang Assistant Natural Resources Defense Council

Bruce Harris Assistant Wal-Mart Stores, Inc

Daniel Gross Assistant Wal-Mart Stores, Inc

David T. Clark Assistant Deutsche Bank AG

Elizabeth Fretheim Assistant Wal-Mart Stores, Inc

Frank Hardesty Assistant Association of American Railroads

John Maples Assistant Energy Information Administration

Nancy N. Young Assistant Air Transport Association

Nicholas Chase Assistant Energy Information Administration

Richard Moskowitz Assistant American Trucking Association


09/21/2010


Air Subgroup

Bob Petersen Member Boeing Commercial Airplanes

Laurent Rouaud Member GE Aviation

Roger Schaufele Member Federal Aviation Administration

David Lee Assistant Air Trans. Association of America

Shauna Bassett Assistant Boeing Commercial Airplanes

Steve Csonka Assistant GE Aviation

Mike Farina Assistant GE Energy-Global Strategy & Planning

Passenger Subgroup

John Bennett Member Amtrak

Art Guzetti Member American Public Trans. Association

Rail Subgroup

Michail Goetzke Member EMD

Martha Lenz Member EMD

Truck Subgroup

Glen Kedzie Assistant American Trucking Association


09/21/2010 11

Meeting Purpose Actual Date

Introductory call / Kick Off• Initial core team members• Detailed Anti Trust statement• Review overall scope and plan for full program• Review Remit and fit of subgroup in overall program

24 June 2010

Commence Preliminary Scope Framing Questions Discussion 1 July 2010

Continue Preliminary Scope and Framing Questions Discussion 15 July 2010

Finalize Draft Scope and Framing Questions (Face to Face Meeting) TBD 22 or 29 July 2010

Task Group Review of Subgroup Draft Scope and Framing Questions TBD 2

Align Scope and Frame with Other Subgroups within Task Group (Face to Face Meeting) 5,6 August 2010

Develop Preliminary Overall Subgroup Plan and Schedule (to Fit with Overall Schedule) 12 Aug 2010

Demand Task Group/Subgroup - 60 Day Timeline

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Barriers/Pinch Points/Dependencies

09/21/2010 13

List of Reference Documents