071214 i vox_express political survey_v1
TRANSCRIPT
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EXPRESS SOCIO SURVEY REPORT
Attitudes towards recent political events by Ukrainian population
December, 04-07, 2014
To the attention of Ambassador of Belgium to Ukraine, Mr.Luc Jacobs
On the occasion of the official visit to Ukraine
of Mr.Reynders, The Vice Prime Minister of Belgium
THE ENTIRE LIST OF THE POLITICAL EVENTS
UNDER THE “TEST”
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• Russian President Putin has threatened Ukraine (represented by its President Poroshenko) with the full-scale military invasion in the nearest future.
• New parliamentary coalition declared the intent of Ukraine to join NATO.
• Ukrainian government has suspended social expenses on the occupied territories of Donbass region (i.e. pensions, state expenses etc) as of Dec 1st, 2014.
• Prime minister Yatseniuk has announced pessimistic forecast (on continuous recession) of Ukrainian economy for 2015.
• USA and European bodies started providing Ukraine with modern non-lethal weaponry.
• The second wave of lustration of "old" officials started in Ukraine in the end of November.
• At the World TOP-20 leaders' summit in Australia, President Putin has been exposed to the aggressive critics by the participants for the situation in Eastern Ukraine.
• Three foreign specialists were invited and have joined the new government of Ukraine as the ministers.
• Terrorist attack by Chechen insurgents (rebels) on the governmental forces in Groznyi - the capital of Chechnia.
• The new Ukrainian Parliament has approved creation of the new Ministry: of information policy.
EXPRESS CONCLUSIONS
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The most positive perception receives the new wave of the second wave of lustration thatstarted in November (76%), the criticism, president Putin got faced on World TOP-20 summit(76%) and the fact, that USA and Europe started the provision of Ukraine with modern non-lethal weaponry (71%).
The respondents assess negatively the threats of president Putin to invade Ukraine in thenearest future (85%) and the prime minister’s Yatseniuk claim on the pessimistic forecast forUkrainian economics in 2015.
As the result of the survey, it was determined that respondents with the income below averageare more likely to assess the political events negatively than those with the average and aboveaverage income. On the contrary, the respondents with above average income tend to perceivepolitical events positively. Worth to mention, that men are more optimistic on the political eventsthan women.
Almost all events, studied upon the survey, were considered by the respondents as importantand scored more than 50%, except set up of the new ministry (of information policy) in theUkrainian government.
The respondents with income above average consider as more important (than those with thebelow average income) the following events: beginning of provision of Ukraine with the modernnon-lethal weaponry from the USA and Europe as well as the inclusion into the Cabinet ofMinisters of three foreign specialists as ministers.
UKRAINE’S OPINION ON RECENT POLITICAL EVENTS
NEGATIVE VS. POSITIVE
4Base: all respondents (N=508)
04-06 of December 2014
Please describe your opinion on the following latest events:
7
11
12
18
17
25
32
25
62
81
3
2
3
3
6
8
8
8
16
4
6
6
6
6
8
8
13
20
9
6
8
4
8
11
14
10
12
21
6
4
12
5
12
9
20
15
8
10
3
2
65
71
59
54
35
34
27
16
3
4
The new wave of lustration of "old" officials started in Ukrainein the end of November
On the world top-20 countries leaders' summit in Australia,President Putin was exposed to the critics of other…
USA and European bodies started provision of Ukraine withmodern non-mortal weaponry
New parliamentary coalition declared the intend of Ukraine toenter NATO
Three foreign specialists where invited and entered the newgovernment of Ukraine as its ministers
Ukarinain government suspended strating Dec 1st, the fundingof social expenses on the occupied territories of Donbass…
Attack of Chechen insurgents (rebels) on the governmantalforces in Groznyi - the capital of Chechnia
New Ukrainian parliament approved the creation of the newministry of information policy
Prime minister Yatseniuk announced the pessimistic forecast(on continous recession) of Ukrainian economy in 2015
Russian President Putin threatened Ukraine (represented byits president) with the full-scale military invasion in the…
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Index (out of 6)
B2B(1+2)
T2B(5+6)
5.1 10% 76%
5.0 14% 76%
4.8 15% 71%
4.5 21% 62%
4.2 23% 56%
3.8 33% 49%
3.3 40% 34%
3.3 32% 26%
1.8 79% 6%
1.5 85% 5%
%New (2nd) wave of lustration
Critics to Putin on the World TOP-20 summit in Australia
Supply of modern non-lethal weaponry
The new Coalition intends Ukraine to NATO
Three “expat” Ministers into new Ukrainian Cabinet
Suspend of funding of social expenses on the occupiedterritories
Attack of Chechen insurgents (rebels) in Groznyi
Set up of Ministry of information policy
Pessimistic forecast (of continuous recession) for 2015 by Yatseniuk
President Putin’s threats of the full-scale military invasion
positivenegative
Sort
ed b
y T
2B
B2B T2B
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New wave of lustration
Critics to Putin on the World TOP-20 summit in Australia
Supply of modern non-lethal weaponry
The new Coalition intends Ukraine to NATO
Three “expat” Ministers into new Ukrainian Cabinet
Suspend of funding of social expenses on the occupied territories
Attack of Chechen insurgents (rebels) in Groznyi
Set up of Ministry of information policy
Pessimistic forecast (of continuous recession) for 2015 by Yatseniuk
President Putin’s threats of the full-scale military invasion
THE PERCEPTION OF POLITICAL EVENTSNEGATIVE-POSITIVE BY INCOME
5
Please describe your opinion on the following latest events:
8
8
10
13
14
24
33
29
72
91
82
83
82
75
70
57
41
24
5
3
14
23
21
30
35
40
53
35
88
78
72
66
61
52
45
41
26
23
4
8
8
11
12
18
20
32
35
31
76
87
77
80
74
64
55
50
36
31
9
5
B2B (1+2) T2B (5+6)
below average average above averageA B C
Base: all respondents (see details)
Income
N=151 N=211 N=134
Sort
ed b
y T
2B
The respective value is significantly higher/lower at sig. level 95%
C
A
A
AB
C
* 2% of respondents refused to answer about their income
New wave of lustration
Critics to Putin on the World TOP-20 summit in Australia
Supply of modern non-lethal weaponry
The new Coalition intends Ukraine to NATO
Three “expat” Ministers into new Ukrainian Cabinet
Suspend of funding of social expenses on the occupied territories
Attack of Chechen insurgents (rebels) in Groznyi
Set up of Ministry of information policy
Pessimistic forecast (of continuous recession) for 2015 by Yatseniuk
President Putin’s threats of the full-scale military invasion
THE PERCEPTION OF POLITICAL EVENTSNEGATIVE-POSITIVE BY GENDER
6
Please describe your opinion on the following latest events:
Base: all respondents (see details)
Sort
ed b
y T
2B
The respective value is significantly higher/lower at sig. level 95%
82
82
79
69
61
57
44
25
7
9
71
71
64
57
51
42
26
27
5
2
Male (N=245) Female (N=264)
Т2В (5+6)
%
7Base: all respondents (N=508)
Please describe your opinion on the following latest events:
5
3
1
2
3
6
5
4
5
12
1
2
1
2
1
2
3
2
3
7
5
4
4
5
3
6
6
8
11
16
4
8
11
8
10
9
10
18
17
23
10
14
21
22
19
14
11
24
18
15
75
70
62
61
64
64
66
45
45
27
Russian President Putin threatened Ukraine (represented byits president) with the full-scale military invasion in the…
New parliamentary coalition declared the intend of Ukraine toenter NATO
Ukarinain government suspended strating Dec 1st, the fundingof social expenses on the occupied territories of Donbass…
Prime minister Yatseniuk announced the pessimistic forecast(on continous recession) of Ukrainian economy in 2015
USA and European bodies started provision of Ukraine withmodern non-mortal weaponry
The new wave of lustration of "old" officials started in Ukrainein the end of November
On the world top-20 countries leaders' summit in Australia,President Putin was exposed to the critics of other…
Three foreign specialists where invited and entered the newgovernment of Ukraine as its ministers
Attack of Chechen insurgents (rebels) on the governmantalforces in Groznyi - the capital of Chechnia
New Ukrainian parliament approved the creation of the newministry of information policy
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
President Putin’s threats of the full-scale military invasion
The new Coalition intends Ukraine to NATO
Suspend of funding of social expenses on the occupiedterritories
Pessimistic forecast (of continuous recession) for 2015 by Yatseniuk
Supply of modern non-lethal weaponry
New wave of lustration
Critics to Putin on the World TOP-20 summit in Australia
.
Three “expat” Ministers into new Ukrainian Cabinet
Attack of Chechen insurgents (rebels) in Groznyi
Set up of Ministry of information policy
meanB2B
(1+2)T2B
(5+6)
5.4 6% 85%
5.4 4% 84%
5.4 2% 83%
5.3 4% 83%
5.3 4% 83%
5.1 8% 78%
5.2 8% 76%
4.9 6% 69%
4.8 8% 64%
4.0 19% 42%
% importantunimportant
B2B T2B
THE PERCEPTION OF POLITICAL EVENTSUNIMPORTANT-IMPORTANT
Sort
ed b
y T
2B
President Putin’s threats of the full-scale military invasion
The new Coalition intends Ukraine to NATO
Suspend of funding of social expenses on the occupied territories
Pessimistic forecast (of continuous recession) for 2015 by Yatseniuk
Supply of modern non-lethal weaponry
New wave of lustration
Critics to Putin on the World TOP-20 summit in Australia
Three “expat” Ministers into new Ukrainian Cabinet
Attack of Chechen insurgents (rebels) in Groznyi
Set up of Ministry of information policy
82%
80%
81%
85%
79%
75%
70%
64%
63%
33%
86%
86%
82%
84%
81%
78%
78%
67%
59%
48%
85%
85%
86%
78%
91%
79%
80%
79%
72%
43%
below average (N=151) average (N=211) above average (N=134)
8Base: all respondents (see details)
Please describe your opinion on the following latest events:
THE PERCEPTION OF POLITICAL EVENTSUNIMPORTANT-IMPORTANT BY INCOME LEVEL
Sort
ed b
y T
2B
The respective value is significantly higher/lower at sig. level 95%
Т2В (5+6)
B
A
A B C
* 2% of respondents refused to answer about their income
President Putin’s threats of the full-scale military invasion
The new Coalition intends Ukraine to NATO
Suspend of funding of social expenses on the occupied territories
Pessimistic forecast (of continuous recession) for 2015 by Yatseniuk
Supply of modern non-lethal weaponry
New wave of lustration
Critics to Putin on the World TOP-20 summit in Australia
Three “expat” Ministers into new Ukrainian Cabinet
Attack of Chechen insurgents (rebels) in Groznyi
Set up of Ministry of information policy
THE PERCEPTION OF POLITICAL EVENTSUNIMPORTANT-IMPORTANT BY GENDER
9
Please describe your opinion on the following latest events:
Base: all respondents (see details)
Sort
ed b
y T
2B
The respective value is significantly higher/lower at sig. level 95%
86
88
86
83
84
82
79
73
70
47
83
80
81
83
81
73
74
65
58
38
Male (N=245) Female (N=264)
Т2В (5+6)
%
METHODOLOGY & RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
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Research ObjectivesStudy of the public opinion upon political situation in Ukraine.
Data collection methodOnline survey based on iVOX panel of respondents across Ukraine.
Target groupMen and women aged 16-59 years in all regions of Ukraine.
GeographyUkraine, all types of settlements, all regions (excluding Crimea).
Effective sample size508 respondents. The sample is representative to general population of Ukraine (See above. "Geography") by gender, age, geography of residence. Stat. error= 4,3% at 95% reliability of the method.
Length of interview~ 4 minutes
Data collection period: 04-06 of December, 2014
Gender
Male 48%
Female 52%
Age
16-29 30%
30-44 37%
45-59 33%
Region
Kiev 6%
North 9%
West 23%
Center 12%
South 14%
East 36%
Income
We do not have enough money even for food 2%
We have enough money for food, but to buy clothing will be difficult
27%
We have enough money for food and clothing, but buying a TV, refrigerator or a washing machine is difficult
42%
We can buy the basic household appliances, but we cant afford a car
23%
Our resources are not enough to buy an apartment or private house
3%
If necessary, we can buy an apartment or a house 0.02%
Refused to answer 2%
Level of income
Below average 29%
Average 42%
Above average 27%
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF THE SAMPLE
11Base: all respondents (N=508)
RFQ us: [email protected]
IVOX ONLINE CONSUMER PANEL,
THE QUALITY LEADER IN UKRAINE
The pioneer of the Ukrainian market, since 2008.
The panel members have been recruited gradually during 4 years, specifically for research purpose only.
No artificial acquisition (purchase of database or similar); all panelists were engaged consciously.
Double opt-in registration.
Deeply profiled panel => good quality of targeting respondents.
Well balanced by sources of recruitment: 40+ online sources + 10% offline recruitment.
Very moderate deterioration of the panel. We conduct on average about 3 effective interviews per year / one panelist.
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