0709 destatte evaluation of foresight -...

by Philippe Destattedirector general of The Destree Institute

FOR-LEARN Mutual Learning WorkshopEvaluation of Foresight

Brussels, IPTS-DG RTD, September 19, 2007

Evaluation of Foresight :Evaluation of Foresight :how to take long term impactshow to take long term impacts

into consideration ?into consideration ?

ForesightForesightEvaluationEvaluationProcessesProcesses FORESIGHTFORESIGHT

EXERCISEEXERCISE

OUTPUTSOUTPUTS EFFECTSEFFECTS

RESULTSRESULTS IMPACTSIMPACTS

INDIRECTINDIRECTIMPACTSIMPACTS

DIRECTDIRECTIMPACTSIMPACTS

INPUTSINPUTS

OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES

NEEDSNEEDS PROBLEMSPROBLEMS ISSUESISSUES

OOUUTTCCOOMMEESS

ForesightForesightEvaluationEvaluationProcessesProcesses

FORESIGHTFORESIGHTEXERCISEEXERCISE





INPUTSINPUTS



TheThe intendedintendedphysicalphysical, , financialfinancial, , institutionnalinstitutionnal, social, , social, environmentalenvironmental, or , or otherother developmentdevelopmentresultsresults to to whichwhich thetheforesight foresight isis expecexpec--tedted to to contributecontribute







INPUTSINPUTS


NEEDSNEEDS PROBLEMSPROBLEMS ISSUESISSUESTheThe financialfinancial, , humanhuman andandmaterialmaterial resourcesresources usedused for for thethe foresight foresight exerciseexercise ((andandatat thethe second second levellevel for for thetheimplementationimplementation of of thethestrategystrategy))







INPUTSINPUTS



TheThe productsproducts andandservices, tangibles services, tangibles andand intangibles, intangibles, whichwhich resultresult fromfromthethe foresight foresight exerciseexercise ((whatwhat waswasaccomplishedaccomplished withwiththethe resourcesresources) )







INPUTSINPUTS



TheThe likelylikely or or achievedachievedshortshort--termterm andand medium medium termterm sociosocio--economiceconomic, , institutionalinstitutional or cultural or cultural changes changes resultingresulting of of thethe foresight foresight processprocessandand of of thethe implemenimplemen--tationtation of of thethe strategystrategy







INPUTSINPUTS



AdvantageAdvantage or or inconincon--venientvenient thatthat thethe direct direct adresses adresses obtainobtain soonsoonafterafter thethe endend of of theirtheirparticipation to participation to thetheforesight or foresight or soonsoon afterafterthethe implementationimplementation of of thethe strategystrategy







INPUTSINPUTS



ConsequencesConsequences of of thetheforesight foresight exerciseexercise for for thetheadresses adresses afterafter thethe achieachie--vementvement of of thethe strategystrategy. . Impacts Impacts couldcould bebe direct (on direct (on thethe direct adresses) or direct adresses) or indirect (on indirect (on otherother winningwinningandand loosingloosing adresses). Long adresses). Long termterm impacts impacts couldcould bebe calledcalled«« sustainablesustainable impactsimpacts »»

ForesightForesightEvaluationEvaluation

CriteriaCriteria

Foresight Evaluation Foresight Evaluation CriteriaCriteria : : EffectivenessEffectiveness

EffectivenessEffectiveness(1st (1st levellevel))

EffectivenessEffectiveness(2nd (2nd levellevel))

EffectivenessEffectiveness(3rd (3rd levellevel))

Foresight Evaluation Foresight Evaluation CriteriaCriteria : : EfficiencyEfficiency

EfficiencyEfficiency(2nd (2nd levellevel))

EfficiencyEfficiency(1st (1st levellevel))

EfficiencyEfficiency(3rd (3rd levellevel))

Foresight Evaluation Foresight Evaluation CriteriaCriteria : Utility: Utility

UtilityUtility

Foresight Evaluation Foresight Evaluation CriteriaCriteria : Relevance: Relevance

RelevanceRelevanceAppropriatenessAppropriateness

Foresight Evaluation Foresight Evaluation CriteriaCriteria : : SustainabilitySustainability

SustainabilitySustainability

Foresight Evaluation Foresight Evaluation CriteriaCriteria : : FairnessFairness

FairnessFairness

Foresight Evaluation Foresight Evaluation CriteriaCriteria : : BehaviouralBehaviouralAdditionalityAdditionality

BehaviouralBehaviouralAdditionalityAdditionality

BibliographyBibliography

Evaluation of Evaluation of SocioSocio--EconomicEconomic Programmes, Programmes, GlossaryGlossary of 300 concepts of 300 concepts andandTechnicalTechnical TermsTerms, , «« MeansMeans »» CollectionCollection, Luxembourg, , Luxembourg, EuropeanEuropeanCommission, 1999.Commission, 1999.

Evaluation of Evaluation of SocioSocio--EconomicEconomic DevelopmentDevelopment, , TheThe Guide, Guide, ResourcesResources for for Evaluation, Luxembourg, Evaluation, Luxembourg, EuropeanEuropean Commission, 2004.Commission, 2004.

GlossaryGlossary of Key of Key TermsTerms in Evaluation in Evaluation andand ResultsResults BasedBased managementmanagement, , Paris, OECD, Paris, OECD, DevelopmentDevelopment Assistance Assistance CommitteeCommittee, 2002., 2002.

Remi BARRE & Michael KEENAN, Remi BARRE & Michael KEENAN, Evaluation, Impact Evaluation, Impact andand Learning, Learning, AnchorAnchor PaperPaper, Second International , Second International SevilleSeville SeminarSeminar on on FutureFuture--OrientedOrientedTechnologyTechnology Analysis : Impact of FTA, Analysis : Impact of FTA, ApproachesApproaches on Policy on Policy andand DecisionDecision--MakingMaking, , SevilleSeville, 28, 28--29 29 SeptemberSeptember 2006.2006.

Attila HAVAS, Attila HAVAS, TerminologyTerminology andand MethodologyMethodology for for BenchmarkingBenchmarking Foresight Foresight ProgrammesProgrammes, , ForSocietyForSociety projectproject, Budapest, March 2005., Budapest, March 2005.

Philippe DestattePhilippe Destatte

[email protected]@institut--destree.eudestree.eu

0709 destatte evaluation of foresight -...

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