01_air transport fundamentals (km)2012
DESCRIPTION
air transport management lesson 1TRANSCRIPT
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EAS417 Air Transport Management
Air Transport
Fundamentals
Dr Keith Mason
Head of Air Transport Management Group, Cranfield University
Twitter: @keithjmason
8th – 9th Sept 2012
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WHY DO WE HAVE AN
AIRLINE INDUSTRY?
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EAS417 Air Transport Management
Scheduled Air Transport Industry
• Air transport demand is derived from other industries
• (including tourism)
• Airlines compete for business travellers with:-
• Phone, fax, e-mail, internet, teleconferencing
• Surface transport
• Airlines competes for leisure travellers with:-
• Savings, consumer durables, etc...
• Surface transport
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IATA Members Operations
Source: IATA , WATS, 2010
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Source: IATA WATS 2004
North America
16.3%
12.4% Europe
8.5%
Asia &
SW Pacific
18.1%
5.8%
9.5%
IATA scheduled RPKs 2010
5.8%
Middle
East 1.1%
4.3%
3.1%
2.1%
0.6%
Source: IATA , WATS, 2011
Major Passenger Traffic
Flows (RPKs)
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ICAO, Outlook for Air Transport to 2015, Cir 304 AT/127
Actual
Passenger traffic growth forecast
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EAS417 Air Transport Management
Airline industry characteristics
• Strongly influenced by economic cycles
• Seats cannot be stored
• Many markets highly seasonal
• Long aircraft ordering lead times
• Poor financial performance
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EAS417 Air Transport Management
World GDP & scheduled traffic
growth
Source: ICAO, 2009a and WEO (IMF), 2009
Average Changes of World RPK / Real GDP, 1982-2008
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Aircraft Manufacturer Forecasts (Pax-kms)
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Route Seasonality (Summer)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Gatwick - Malaga: Schedule and Charter combined
2006 2009
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Route Seasonality (Winter)
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Route Seasonality (Business)
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EAS417 Air Transport Management
Financial Return and traffic growth
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Input prices, productivity and yield
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-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Percent
Opera ngResultas%Revenues
NetResultas%Revenues
Source: ICAO
World scheduled airline results: margins
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Scheduled airline results: margin by region
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Opera
ngprofitas%Revenues
Asia/Pacific
Europe
NorthAmerica
Source: ICAO, and Airline Business (From August 2007 onward)
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EAS417 Air Transport Management
Margins by business models
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2008 2009 2010
Perc
en
t
Operating Margin by Airline Business Model
Cargo Mainline Leisure Low Cost Regional
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EAS417 Air Transport Management
The business travel market
• Dependent on the route, business travel can be 50% or
more of the market (in volume), although exact statistics
are hard to come by there are few international or national
published statistics
• CAA have numbers ex-UK
• OAG, CAA, IATA and AMEX publish survey data
• The value of the business market can be used to support
discounted fares in economy
• Business class travel more important than first class
• airlines are substituting first class seats with business class seats
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Business Travellers
• Mainly male - 80%
• Middle aged
• 35 - 54
• 17 trips per annum
• 5 Long haul
• 12 short haul • down 3 since 2004
• Half work for large
companies
• Half work for SMEs Source: IATA CATS 2009
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EAS417 Air Transport Management
Profitability by class of passenger service
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
First Class Intermediate Class Low Class
Lo
ad
Fa
cto
r (%
)
Actual Load Factor BELFSource: IATA, 2003
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EAS417 Air Transport Management
Business Traveller gender
IATA CATS 2009
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EAS417 Air Transport Management
Company size and trip frequency
• Short Haul
• 12.1 trips pa
• Long Haul
• 4.1 trips pa
IATA CATS 2009
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EAS417 Air Transport Management
Evidence of change of business
market
• Downgrading
• Adoption of low cost airlines
• Change in booking behaviour
• Increase in fare transparency
• No longer prepared to pay high multiples for business class
• Increase in price elasticity
• Increase in “value for money” purchasing
• Use of other forms of communication
• Increased use of web-conferencing, tele-presencing, video-conferencing. This adoption has been increased as companies become aware of the carbon cost of travel.
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Choice of airline
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Factors affecting choice of airline: IATA CATS 2009
LH CATS 2009 SH CATS 2009
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EAS417 Air Transport Management26
Travel spend
80/20?
< 100 employees
1,000 – 10,000
employees
< 1000 employees
> 10,000 employees
Airlines cannot afford to manage
accounts for companies with
spend less than £50k
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EAS417 Air Transport Management
Where will you find business travellers?
• Class on travel on short haul flights (<5hrs)
• 10.0% First or Business Class
• 22.0% Premium Economy
• 68.0% Economy Class
• Class of travel on long haul
• 1.5% First Class
• 39.0% Business Class
• 19.4% Premium Economy
• 40% Economy Class
• The class is often dependent on the traveller’s corporate
status
Source: IATA CATS, 2004
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EAS417 Air Transport Management
Business Travel Cuts – Summer
2009
• 71% of companies had significantly reduced business travel
• Class of travel
• 38% Business class
• Of these 70% said only for trips > 5 hours
• Reasons for trips
• Trips for sales and commercial (45%)
• Customer support (21%)
• Conference and presentations (20%)
• Internal company meeting (10%)
• Training (4%)
Source: KDS, 2009
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EAS417 Air Transport Management
Demographic Segments in Leisure &
VFR
• Age - A very wide range
• Gender - 50/50
• Peaking - Weekly and seasonal
• Charter operators can manipulate demand with tour operator.
• Planning well in advance
• Although increase in Mini-breaks
• Life Cycle - Tour operators segment on life-cycle
• 18-30, Sandals (couples only), Beaches by Sandals (Families)
Eurocamp, Family destinations, Cruise and safari, Saga
• Tour segments may require specialised airline services (e.g.
Flights to family destinations may provide children's books and
colouring pens)
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Leisure traveller - Lifestyle changes
Lifestyle Changes Europe:-
• Lengthier and more flexible
holiday entitlements
• Increased job and
educational mobility
• Rise of the “Grey Panthers”
• The Gap Year phenomenon
• 2nd Homes overseas
• Sporting, cultural events
Lifestyle Changes Asia:-
• Increased use of disposable
income for cheap travel – LCCs
• Rise of the newly middle class
travellers
• Ego Tourism
• Educational travel
• Sporting, cultural events
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16932
13972
11431
9450
9044
8540
8398
7567
6783
6468
5922
5415
5081
5035
4576
Jakarta (Intl) Indonesia
Hong Kong (Intl) China
Shanghai (Pu Dong Intl) China
Sydney Australia
Bangkok (Intl) Thailand
London (Heathrow) UK
Manila Philippines
Melbourne Australia
Denpasar Bali Indonesia
Beijing (Capital) China
Tokyo (Narita) Japan
Brisbane Australia
Seoul (Incheon Intl) Korea
Kuala Lumpur Malaysia
Dubai U.A.E
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Singapore Airlines top 15 routesWeekly one-way seat capacity - September 2010 data
Source: OAG DATA
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EAS417 Air Transport ManagementNational Association of Travel Agents, Singapore
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EAS417 Air Transport Management
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EAS417 Air Transport Management
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Breakdown of visitors by region to Singapore (May 2010)
Source: CEIC
2% 4%
7%
13%
74%
Tourist Visitors to Singapore by Origin
Other
USA
Australia
Europe
Asia
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0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
ASEAN Japan Hong Kong SAR
India China, People's
Republic of
Taiwan South Korea
Australia United Kingdom
United States
Singapore Tourist Arrivals (000s)- 2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
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EAS417 Air Transport Management
Purpose of visit to Singapore - 2009
YourSingapore.com