01 robert prechter.ppt - social mood conference summit: nhi ithnew horizons in the study of social...
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Socionomics Summit:Socionomics Summit:N H i i thN H i i thNew Horizons in the New Horizons in the Study of Social MoodStudy of Social MoodStudy of Social Mood Study of Social Mood
April 16, 2011April 16, 2011
Robert R. Prechter, Jr., CMT
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Socionomic TheorySocionomic Theory Provides a Basis for
Social Prediction
Figure 1 Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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Predicting Based onPredicting Based on Lag Variations g
in Social Actions
Figure 2 Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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Figure 3 Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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Figure 4 Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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Figure 5 Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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Figure 6 Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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Figure 7 Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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Figure 8 Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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Predicting Using thePredicting Using the Elliott Wave Model
Figure 9 Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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Figure 10 Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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Figure 11 Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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Socionomic (Fractal) Prediction vs.Conventional (Linear) PredictionConventional (Linear) Prediction
Figure 12 Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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Figure 13 Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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Figure 14 Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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HOW ECONOMISTS “FORECAST” EARNINGS“The chart makes is transparently obvious that analysts lag reality. They only change their minds when there is irrefutable proof they were wrong, and then g p y g,only change their minds very slowly.”
–James Montier, head of equity research, Societe Generale, London, April 2008
Figure 15 Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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Figure 16 Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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Figure 17 Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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Figure 18 Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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Figure 19 Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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Figure 20 Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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Figure 21 Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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Figure 22New books 2000-2009
Prechter, www.socionomics.com
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Figure 23New books 2000-2009
Prechter, www.socionomics.com