01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

Download 01 ipcc ar 4 arabic synthesis report nov07

Post on 24-Jun-2015

291 views

Category:

News & Politics

0 download

Embed Size (px)

TRANSCRIPT

  • 1. 2007

2. 2007 G J dG jdGQ`````M Andy ReisingerRajendra K. PachauriSSCG HdG jajd dG Y~dG I~Mh FQ dh~dG eG dG FQeG d dG jdGdh~dG eG dG ,dGG H G G H G dh~dGG H GSSCG HdG jaLenny Bernstein, Peter Bosch, Osvaldo Canziani, Zhenlin Chen, Renate Christ, Ogunlade Davidson,William Hare, Saleemul Huq, David Karoly, Vladimir Kattsov, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Jian Liu, Ul-rike Lohmann, Martin Manning, Taroh Matsuno, Bettina Menne, Bert Metz, Monirul Mirza, NevilleNicholls, Leonard Nurse, Rajendra Pachauri, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Dahe Qin, Nijavalli Ravin-dranath, Andy Reisinger, Jiawen Ren, Keywan Riahi, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Matilde Rusticucci, StephenSchneider, Youba Sokona, Susan Solomon, Peter Stott, Ronald Stouffer, Taishi Sugiyama, Rob Swart,Dennis Tirpak, Coleen Vogel, Gary Yohe :dG jd dG Y~dG I~MhAndy Reisinger, Richard Nottage, Prima Madan :jdG Gg LGeG dh~dG eG d HGdG dG jJ KdG edG baCG ge .dG jdG :2007 G J :2007 ,G H G dh~dG eG dG:](hQ) SSCG HdG ja[ G H.U 104 ,GjS ,L ,G H G dh~dG eG dG . [R.K Pachauri! A. Reisinger CG efH dG Gd I~GG H G dh~dG eG dG JfjG OUQCd 3. G H G dh~dG eG dG Jf 2008 ,G H G dh~dG eG d X G L 2008 hCG dG ISBN 92-9169-622-6e ILe e SG Rjh .d CHh NBG T CHh fhdEGh YW dG H G H G dh~dG eG dG ke A LdG hCG SG hCG dG Wh jdG CH SGG LJh .kVGhh ec Q~G H jT dH PEG hO jdG Ggk:dG GdG Y eH jd hCG jdGIPCCc/o World Meteorological Organization (WMO)7bis avenue de la Paix Tel. : +41 22 730 8208P.O Box No. 2300Fax.: +41 22 730 8025CH- 1211 Geneva 2, SwitzerlandE-mail: IPCC-Sec@wmo.intG dh~dG eG dG fL e CGQ CG Y dG GMCG e M CH J G Gg e~G dGh OGG VY jW.eJ hCG gOh~M H j a hCG ,Jd hCG e hCG j~e hCG bEG hCG ~H C fdG VdH j a G HJT Y d J G H G dh~dG eG dG b e H Ue hCG I~e fCG j IO~ e hCG cT cP EGk.J hCG cJ dG~jdG W 2007 dG d Hf IFH jFa e I~MGh g G H G dh~dG eG dG Hf SD e eY g Hf IFL dG~e Jh Hf IFL .Hf SDe 4. j~`````J,G H G dh~dG eG dG e AYCh ,kL OH 1988 dG G H G dh~dG eG dG fCGjdH G dG Y~dG I~Mh UHh ,dG Y~dG G~Mh XhI~G CG efHh jG OUQCd dG G dH ceRenate IQc~dh ,dO OQGGh bdG ~ HdGh dG,G H G dG eG J jh H foCGh ,d.bJG feCG Xh ,dG IJS ,Christ Vhh ,G d jObG - YLGh dG QKBG j~JhJQ~UCG dG IO~G G~G ODJh .HSd bGh JGSGSG h~dG J dG Gh eG eH cfhFQ kGQhO G dP e G H G dh~dG eG dGke M dG RMCG ~bh .Ye H AGd Y~dG ~Jh ,d J EG HSd SS Jh OYG Y eG I~Ye edG G~dG e AGG e kGc kGO~Y dYCG cGTEH UN f De i~d bKe IQe EG Ld UN HSG ~bh ,GfCG dG G J CH jQWEG I~G CG bJG GWCGSG h~da ;dfG M JGObG dG G~dGh .H G 1997 d Jc cJhH h 1992 dG .dG YLG Q dG d dG I~YG ~J e qdG eG Hh~e L gG~HCG dG hdG hQ jCG cfhk1995h 1990)dG jQJ e S FfEG e dG Q~UCGh .bh ~ AGQBG aGJ EG Ud dG GQhO e mk ,dG bQdGh ,UG jQdGh (2007 dG jdG Gg K 2001hY e~j Sb LGe UCG dG ,G SGQ~dG jQJh,Rajendra K. Pachauri Qc~dG ,dG FQ f CG Of kGNCGh .dGh AGG e gZh ,AdGh ,SdG fU SGh fdG Gg Y GYEGh .c hOh H G OL LJ dd ~cCG K jJh SMG{ Y UN jJ JGQe ~MCG hIFL bdG Gg e JOHh c da ,BG e Sek W jM{ Y UN jJh ,2005 dG Q~U dG zHdG .2007 dG d HfOG{h ,2005 dG Q~U idG zdG NG dGh hRhCG ~j~L e QM dG za~dG GRZ O WdG FGd LdGuQahd dG faY Y GYEd UdG g f CG jCG Ofhk .zGh G J{ Y a bQh dM ~Jh .2006 dG kqb cdG ~J ~a ,Jad ~j~dG SCH fQT Yh Bert Bolin/hCG fc 30 G aGhh ,d FQ hCG UH S jY 2007 af /dG jJ 17 ~YG dG dG jdG GHh .G Yh jG OUQCG Y IgH IM ~H 2007 jOHQCG e dCj dG HGdG dG jJ j fSEH a .z2007 G J{ GH dG GW MGe Y Q~U dGh G~baCG dEG UJ dG LSG j dG jdGhjb ~j~dG Lh Y hJ dJ Y jh KdG edG~cDj a :G J G~e SdG fU gG Ve gVjh ;jH fCG EG e ijh BG Fb G J CGfeEG jh ,G bGh a QG dG QGMG QKBG hQL e,dd jdG ~jh ;J e ~d G J k q jG OUQCd dG d dG eCGdG GJ i~e e ~G EG eJ dG LddGh ,SdGh q .G NG FQ dDe 500 e cCG QT kGRQH kGREG HGdG dG jJ ~jh q oY ShCG YCG EG ~SG ~bh ,VGSG N 2000 Jh VhcQe dhO Fe e cCG jdG Hh~G EG ~bh ,SGh uo Achim Steiner J AGN G~HCG e IK ALh .a dG eE d I~G CG efH ,dG j~Gd feG Y f CG Ofh .hJh Jh SM e e diii 5. ~````Y KdG edG baCG e ee dG Gg OQj :3 VG AG j edG SdG fd eh dG jdG Gg~jh .dG Gg QKBGh G J e G Kh~M bj G dh~dG eG d HGdG dG jJ e FdGh HGdGbG GdG Yh KfG gjQS Y fhDe ee qfU NJh .z2007 G J{ G G HQKBG jh ,~H eh jdGh OG dG G Kh~Mjh jdG Gg j ,G UCG e gZh edG SdG oYdGh fCH G G J j CG bj dG odG GP G G J Y eG ~MCG H edG.dGh fEG ad UN gfG jh .WGh kjdG Gg e VdGh .jObG YLGh dGh dGdG YdG QGdG UCG e gZh eG I~Ye gHSGh dGh dG GQN dG Gg j :4 VGJ N Lh Se HSG Jh ZU Y UGhHGdGh dGh hCG edG jdG jJ J H.fEG H GQh .eG~G dG Hh HSG GAGLEGh G J HdG H gJ dG HSG GAGLEG g VG GgbaCG ge IOQGdG eG dG jdG f jh,GhOCGh ,GAG``LEGh ,SdGh ,LddG hjh .2030hCG edG jdG jJ :gh HGdG dG jJ KdG edGQRBdG LhCG dP fL EG hjh ,dG VJ dG LGG dch Y dG edG jdG jJh ,zFjdG dG SSCG{ Y .jdG OdGhY ddG edG jdG jJh ,zgAGREG dGh e dGh QKBG{,dG jQJ e iNCG jQJ Y jCG ~jh .zG J J{kdG fGG jh ,LCG jW QG dG Gg j :5 VG d ja jdG c ~bh .INCG UG gjQJ SdPh ,dGh dH dG GP jObG YLGh dGh gG KdG edG baCG jQJ e mc dDe e eh GCH jQWEG I~G CG bJG MCGh G~gCG e e f Y d ahh .dG FQ Y jh ,HGdG dG jJ kIQGOEG Qe QWEG G J CH QGdG U jh .G JbdG GUMh a Z SCH jdG he dDG ~YCG ,dGedGh dG jd UN gfG JGP bdG de ,WGk.dGh dG Fbd dG dG Y JGPJ G KfG GQe dG Gg jh .Y LHGOjR e H Jj eh Ye je ~Y a~dG GRZ GcJ dG GP edG FG e FW dG jdG hjhjJh ,dG dJ Y ee OQj c ,IQGG LQO jh ,dG JbCG VGe S EG e edG SdHjCG jh .G J QKBG h ,HG LddG fhk e ~MGh e cCG j dG d bO gfG dG jdGkjh ,G J AGREG d FQ GhO N e H ,SdG fd e :jAL jdG jh VGG JQh~U e X dG I~j~G eG AV Y ~TG fEG EG VGG J ddG a G GHCG eCGh .e jJh .ddG dG jJJ VdGh RjEG VGZC dh ,G jdG GGHCG e H ~MGh Ve e cCG j dG FG HdG ~Y LhCGh G LSG dG Gg Rj :6 VGo.zSdG fd e{`dG .FdGdGh hCG edG jdG e ee dG Gg j :1 VGe fCG EG ,JGH Fb Kh Y LH j dG jdG CG ZQh G GJ CG dG QKBG Yh G GJ e ~UQ YoG J{ fG iNCG G~G S dEG dG iQhdG.dG Gh dG fCH VG EG LdH UdG e ~je Y WG VGZC Ujh ,z2007edG baCG jQJ e jJ ch .KdG edG baCG geQYG j hJ dG SCG dG Gg hj :2 VGkeh ,e Y a J J a Y e dCj dG dG jh .CG jdGh dG G J c.GS GS dG JbCG SdG fd eh ,a ,YTEG GKDH GQhe ,JGcJh a~dG GRZ KfH CG~JCG c GPEG e jh ,G J e dP Y j AfGhuGP dG EG Ic GQTEG a G dG jdG eCGhFMCGh FjdG fCG h G IOUG GdG iJjQdG h HGdG dG jJ edG baCG ge dGeG g ~J ~jh .CG jH hCG W SCG EGGQTEG ~J ,IAGd GJh .dG Y IQOdG dG GP iNCG KdG edG baCG ge L OQh dG eG YdG GP GHCG Y EG zSdG fd e{ `dG LG.HGdG dG jJv 6. d I~G CG efHh jG OUQCd dG G idG (CD-ROM) fhdEG UdGh .`G ``dG ``jdG h~dG de ge e e~b h dG feCG Y~d jJ edG baCG ge f Y j jdG Gg jd SG fd G Y a ,jfEG dH ec HGdG dG SdG dG H dG jdGh ,dG Gh ,SdGe e~b jQWEG bJGh AYCG h~dG eM L T J fhdEG -dG LG GQTEGh .I~G CHd SG h~dG ge eG e ~je EG H UdG e QdG d IRQH Uh jdG Gg ae OQJh .jObG YLGh dGh dGe e~b cQG Gh AYCG h~dG eM L ASCGh ,GQNH FGbh ,H Fbh ,d dOY cQG AGG YO e H b Y ge .AGG e LGGh ,jdG LGeh ,dDG .dG GQhOh YLG aSGh ,dG ,dGh ,LGGh ,OG~YEG GAGLE ah dG jdG Gg ~YCG ~bh b e boCGh ~YGh ,dG jQH G dGh ,QGbEGh ,OYGh jJ 17-12 ,fSEG ,a) jdGh HdG JQhO dG .(2007 af /dGR.K Pachauri Qc~dGG H G dh~dG eG dG FQ:EG dH ~d UdG g fh U Vhh jdG Gg U idG SSCG HdG ja UdH b~dG gG G~gL ,FdG Renate Christ IQc~dG dG L NCG Y GUM jdG VGSG iQ G H G dh~dG eG dG IJS SSCG jQdG e JG Y aG Yh ,QYG dDG Yh ,FdG G dDG Y AYCG ZdG YCG Gh~YS jdG edG baCG ,FdG Qc~dG UHh ,dG jd dG Y~dG I~Mh Xeh FQ KdG edG baCd dG Y~dG G~Mhh ,Andy Reisingerjh Ld YO e e~b OG~YE YO e e H GVG dG feCG Xe jdG fh GNEGh vi 7. :2007 G J dG jdG jG iii j~J v ~1SdG fd e 23 dG jdG 25e~e 291 VG 352 VG 433 VG 554 VG 635 VG 716 VGaG 75 J ee EG UdGh ~G dO - hCG 76 G Fb - ```fdG 90We G~dG GQOEG ;dG G~MdG ;FdG RedG ,GG - ```ddG 92dDG Fb - ````HGdG 94 VGSH Geb jdG jQGh VG Fb - eG100 SdG - SOdG102 G H G dh~dG eG dG Ye - ```HdG 8. dG jdG Gg e G QOG .Ia c NBG { } SdG H OJ jdG Gg cP OGe EG LG GQTEGjdG Gg VGeh e~e WCGh ,hG~Lh ,TCGh ,GHCG EG J SdG fd e LGG .dGddGh dGh hCG edG baCG ge EG LGG J ,dG VGeh dG jdG Gg e~e hjdG Gg dEG ~j dG G H G dh~dG eG dG jQJ e Zh HGdG dG jJ .f dG jdG GHCG e iNCG GHCG EG hCG ,dG.jQdG e IO~ GHCGh a EG bQCG Jh ddG dG jJ :g dG jdG Gg e G iNCG jQdG d dG dGh hRhCG W jM CH UG jdG 9. :2007 G JdG jdG SdG fd eG H G dh~dG eG dG H VG J/dG jJ 12-17 ,fSEG ,a) G H G dh~dG eG d jdGh HdG edG G boCG dG ,G Gg edG jdG ge IOQGdG FdG dG ~Y LhCGh LSG CH SQ dG Y aGh dG dG ,(2007 af .HGdG dG jJ :g~YCG dG IOG EG GOSGLenny Bernstein, Peter Bosch, Osvaldo Canziani, Zhenlin Chen, Renate Christ, Ogunlade Davidson, William Hare, SaleemulHuq, David Karoly, Vladimir Kattsov, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Jian Liu, Ulrike Lohmann, Martin Manning, Taroh Matsuno,Bettina Menne, Bert Metz, Monirul Mirza, Neville Nicholls, Leonard Nurse, Rajendra Pachauri, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry,Dahe Qin, Nijavalli Ravindranath, Andy Reisinger, Jiawen Ren, Keywan Riahi, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Matilde Rusticucci,Stephen Schneider, Youba Sokona, Susan Solomon, Peter Stott, Ronald Stouffer, Taishi Sugiyama, Rob Swart, DennisTirpak, Coleen Vogel, Gary Yohe 10. SdG fd eKCJ dG MG J CG 2Lj ,dG ~dG Yh .SBG L e``````e~e .{1-1} .dG e OGR ~b H VfG ~T ~b VG eY G J CG G~L LG eh KdG edG baCG JLCG dG dG EG dG jdG Gg ~j,HdG We e dG QX f h IOQdG dGh jCG O~Y ee If jdG Gg jh .G H G dh~dG eG d HdG~b IQGG Le A CG LG eh .IQG dGh jCG O~Y OGR H.d HGdG dG jJ e NCG AG j QYH G J YM bh f CGh ,HdG We e b P e cCG Qj UCG ec VJ Y WG G Gg dhJ dG YVGY e ~T ~b SCH dG CGh ,OGR ~b WG e jdG dGbaCG Vh dG SSCG jQdG h dG jdG Gg d .{1-1} .3dH YJQG QdG ie JQG M O~Y IOjR 1975 .KdG edGFGSG UYCG cM I~T IOjR h~M Y IOUe dOCG g gQKBGh G IOUG GdG -1g h~``M Y ``dOCG CG Z ,jJ 1970 Y e WCG T jdG OG~YCG VGh G ~Lj h .IOh~ iNCG We IOjdGg c LCG WCG gG ~j~ dG a ,FGSGUYCdGOjdG ~UQ e VGh h~j c ,a d L NG dG QGMG H .{1-1}.1970 d HdG IdG UHh ,UYCG,dG AfCG Gh AGdG IQGM LQO Se IOGVQCG IdG f IQGG LQO Se j CG G~L LjhdG SG JQGh ,SGh f Y dGh ~G HhP Y aIa iCG e YCG jdG dG e fdG dG AKCG dG {1-1} .(G 1- dG) dG S iYCG j CG Ljh ,INCG FG GdG K S N VG IY KG GdG Ia GS e S IY i~MEG J.{1-1} .j~J bCG Y VG S 1300 `dG i~e YIQGG LQO Sb GhOCG S S IY KG MCG e (2006-1995)FG Id G G CG cdH j~Lh .(1850 e) dG dGe ~j~dG CG G e h ac GQdG 4IOUG dOCG VJhe cCG ~j 1je LQO [0.920.56] 0.74 d~e -ddG (2005-1906) YqJQH UN ,bEG NG GdH dM KCJ dG fCGOQGdG (2000-1901) je LQO [0.8 0.4] 0.6 d~e -ddG HG G .{2