· udc[519.7/.8:(004+007)](100)(06) ББК22.18я43+72я43 С40 volumeeditor:...

,

SAIT 20112328 2011

,

Nataliya D. Pankratova (Ed.)

System Analysis andInformation Technologies

International Conference SAIT 2011Kyiv, Ukraine, May 2328, 2011

Proceedings

Institute for Applied System Analysisof National Technical University of UkraineKyiv Polytechnic Institute

http://sait.kpi.uahttp://iasa.com.ua

UDC [519.7/.8:(004+007)](100)(06) 22.1843+7243

40

Volume editor:Nataliya D. Pankratova, Dr.Sc., Prof.

Editorial board:Petr I. Bidyuk, Dr.Sc., Prof.Nataliya D. Pankratova, Dr.Sc., Prof.Anatoliy I. Petrenko, Dr.Sc., Prof.Yuriy P. Zaichenko, Dr.Sc., Prof.Elena L. Oparina

Revising:

Gennadii D. Kiselyov, Ph.D.Mykola A. MurgaNadezhda I. Nedashkovskaya, Ph.D.Elena L. OparinaLidiya V. SidolakaOleksandr M. Terentiev, Ph.D.Tetiana V. Zhaivoronska

Design and typesetting:Mykhailo P. Makukha

System analysis and information technologies: International conference on scienceand technology, SAIT 2011, Kyiv, Ukraine, May 2328, 2011. Proceedings. ESC IASA NTUU KPI, 2011. 548 p.

: - SAIT 2011, , 2328 2011 . / . .: , 2011. 548 . : ., ., .

40 i iii i: i i-i i SAIT 2011, , 2328 2011 . / I I. .: I I, 2011. 548 . : ., ., .

This book of abstracts includes issues connected with the research and development of complexsystems of various nature in conditions of uncertainty and multifactor risks, Grid and high per-formance computing in science and education, intelligent systems for decision-making, progressiveinformation technologies for needs of science, industry, economy, and environment. The prob-lems of sustainable development and global threats estimation, forecast and foresight in tasks ofplanning and strategic decision making are investigated.

, , Grid , - , , , , . , , , .

i , i i i i i, i-i i, Grid i i i ii, i- i i, ii i , i, i . i - i , i i ii ii, i, i.

1535767896629

ISBN 978-966-2153-57-6 ESC Institute for Applied System AnalysisNTUU KPI, 2011

ISBN 978-966-2153-56-9 (print)ISBN 978-966-2153-57-6 (ebook)www.sait.kpi.ua

http://www.sait.kpi.ua

3

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, , , - - . , , , , ?

: , - , , - , , . : - , , ? ? ? -? , ?

15 30 . , 400 . . , 1975 2010 . 900 30- .

, - - . , , -, , , -, - , , , , , , - . , -, -, , , , , , () ( ), . , .

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- - SAIT 2011 .

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International conference on System Analysis and Information Technologies SAIT 2011Institute for Applied System Analysis of National Technical University of Ukraine KPI, Kyiv, Ukraine, May 2328, 2011

ISBN 978-966-2153-57-6, revision 0.9.2 (2011.05.12), available at http://sait.kpi.ua/books/sait2011.ebook.pdf

http://sait.kpi.uahttp://iasa.kpi.uahttp://kpi.uahttp://sait.kpi.ua/books/sait2011.ebook.pdf/view

Table of contents i 4

Table of contents i

Plenary talks i ii 23 I.. i -i i i

i ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24i .I. i i i . . . . . . . . . 25 .. . . . . 27 .., .., .., ..

. 30 .. . . . . . . . . . 32 .. , -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33i .., .. Ii i i

i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 .I. i- ii i i . . . . . 36 .. , . . . . . . . . 38

Section 1. System analysis of complex systems of various nature 1. i 1. i i 39Baranovskyi O.M. Content monitoring as a new trend in quantitative evaluation of

changes in social processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41Khomchak M.V. Workload characterization of bank securities processing application . 42Kozlov K.V., Makukha M.P. Using situation calculus for automated project planning 43Muttalibova Sh.F., Hasanov A.A., Pashayeva M.M., Kerimova S.I.Modeling of natural

destructive processes for solving of environmental problems . . . . . . . . . . . . 44Oganesyan Gayane Analysis of financial sustainable growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45Orlov O.A. Countries clustering in the context of cultural dissimilarities with justi-

fication of fuzzy expert estimations using fuzzy relational data decompositionclustering algorithm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

Pereverza K.V. Methodology of scenario development for countries . . . . . . . . . . . 47Zelenskyy S.V. Shared co-investment in the hierarchical supply chain . . . . . . . . . . 48 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 .., .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 .I., I.. i ii ii-

i i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

.. 52 I.., .. i

i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 .., .., .. -

- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54





i .I., .., .. -i i ii ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

.. - - - ( ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

.., .. . 57 .. . . . . . 58 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 .., .., .., .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . 60 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 .., .I., I.. i -

i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 .., I.. i iii i . 63 .. , , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 .. Simulink- ii . . . 65 .., .., .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 .. -

( ) 67ii .., .. ii i -

i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 .., .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 .. . . . . . . . . 70 .., .., .. i -

i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 I.., .. i i i

ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 .., .., .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 ..

, . . . . . . . . . 75 .., ..

- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76

.. -- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

.., .., .I. ii i ii i . . . . 78

.., .., .. - . . . . . . 79

.., i .., .. i i- ii i ii i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80





.., .., .. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81

.., .., .., .. - - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

.. i i i i i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

.. : i i i . 84 .., .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 .., .. ii i

ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 .., .., ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89i .. i i-

i -i . . . . . . . . 90 ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 .., .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 .., .. :

. . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 .. i i ii i

i i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94i .., .. ii i i

i i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 .., .. i i

i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 .. 98 .. . . . 99 ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100ii .., .., .. i i -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 .. i

i-i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 .., ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 .., .I. i ii i i

i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 .I. i i

i i i 2030 i -i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106





.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107

.., .. ii ii i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108

.., .. i i i i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109

.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110

.., i .I. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

.. i i i i iii i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112

.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

.. . . . . . . . . . . 114 .. 115 .., ..

( , - 20072009 ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116

.. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117

.., .., .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118

.., .., .. ii i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119

.., .. i i i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120

.., .., .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

i .. i ii i i 122i .I. i ii i i 123 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 .. -

-2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 .., ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 .., .. 127i .. i ii . . . . . . . . . . . 128 .. i i i ii

i i i ii . . . . . . . 129 .. 130 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 .. ii i . . . . . . . . . 132 ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134





.., .. - . . . . . . . . . . 135

.. ii i i - i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136

.., .. i iii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137

.., .. . . . . . 138 .., ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 .. ii i i . . . . . . 140 .., .. --

( ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 .. . . 142 .., .., .. i i

i .i 20002010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144i .., -i .. i i i -

i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 .. QR QH -

, , i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 .. i i i i i -

i ii i i . . . . . . . . . . 147 .., i .. ii-

i i ii i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148

.. i i i i i-i ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149

.. i i i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150

.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151

.. . . . 152 I.. ii i -

i i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 .. KAIRYOKAIZEN- PCMDM-: 154 .., .., .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155i .. ii i i i-

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 .., .., .., .. -

- . . . . . . . . . . . . 157

.., .. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158

.I., .., I.., I.., i ..i i i-i -i i i- i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159

.., .., .. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160





.. i i i . . . . . . . 161 .. I i i i ,

i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . 163i .. ii i, i i-

ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164 .., .. i i i

i IT-i ii . . . . . 165 ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 .., .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169i .., I.., .. i -

i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170 .. ii i

i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 .., .. . . 172 .., .., .. i i i-

i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173 .. . . . . . . . . . . . 174 .., .. i i i . 175 .. ii i ii i-

i ii . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 .. i i ii i -

i -i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177 .., ..

. . . . . . . . 178

.., .. ii i i i i i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179

.. , i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180

.. ii , i- i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181

.. - ( ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182

Section 2. Intelligent systems for decision-making 2. i 2. Ii i 183Abu-Ein Ashraf Abdel Karim Flows distribution optimization problem in computer

networks with technology of MPLS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185Bogomolov I.M., Didkovska M.V. Modeling of software development processes . . . . 186Cherednichenko O.Yu., Riabko O.V., Timchenko K.A., Timchenko M.A. The assess-

ment framework for decision-making based on quality criterion . . . . . . . . . . 187





Dobrushkin G.A., Danilov V.Ya. Using ANN & HMM for natural speech recognition 188Hatamleh Hazem (mohd said) Structure optimization of MPLS computer networks . 189Matsuki Y., Bidyuk P.I., Kalnytskyi G.V. Energy security cost as an externality

tolerability of economy of Ukraine against increasing gas import price . . . . . . 190Sharadqh A.M. Ahmad Analysis of frequency-territorial planning methods of WIMAX

networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191Shatovska T.B., Kamenieva I.V., Tretyak D.A., Abrosimov S.O. Ontology models

research for data mining repository . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192Voitenko O.S., Karnaukh N.A. Prediction of financial stance for European banks . . . 193 .. ii i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194 .. 195 .., .., .., .., ..,

.. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196

.. i i i ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197

.. i i i i . 198i .. i ii i -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 I.., .. ii

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201 ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202 .., .., .., ..

i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 .., .., .I. i

i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204 .. - -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205 .., .., .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206 ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207 .., .., .. -

- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208

.. I i i - i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209

.., .. : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210

.., - .. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211

.., .., .. - - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212

.., .., .. i -i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213





I.., .I. i i i- i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214

.., .. i ii i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215

.. i i . . . 216i .., .. ii i i i

i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217

.. Neo-fuzzy . 218 .., .. -

- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219

.. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220

.. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221

.. i i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222

.. - - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223

.. i 224 .., .. i

i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225 .., .. i i i

i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226 ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227 .. -

. . . . . . . . 228 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229i .. i i i i . . 230 .., .. - -

- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 .., .., .. -

. . 232 .. i i i

i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233 .I., i .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235 .. i i i . 236 .. LSA+TRM -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237 .., I.., .. i i

i -i i . . . . . . . 238 .., .. ii

i i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239





.. -- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240

.., .. - . . 241

I.., .. i - i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242

.., .. i i . 243 .. -

i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244 .., i .. - i i

i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 .., ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246

.. MPLS 247 .., ,

- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248

.., I.. i ii ii- i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249

.., .. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250

.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251

.., .. i ii -i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252

.., .., .. - . . . . . . . . . . 253

.., .. - - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254

I .. i i i - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255

Ii .., .. i i i i i ii i i i i i - i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256

.., .. 257 .., ..

- . . . . . . . . . . . . 258 .., .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259 .., .., .., .. -

i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260i .., i .., ..

i i . . . . . . . 261 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262 .., .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263i .. i i i i . . . . . . . . . 264





.., .. i i iiii i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265

.., .. ii i i i- i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266

.. i i i i -i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267

.., .. i i i i ii 268

I.., .. i -i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269

.I., i .., .., .. ii - i i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270

.. i i . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 .. i

i ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272 .., .. 273 .. Ii i i i . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 .., .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275 .. . . 276 .., .., .. ii i i

i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277 .., .. . . . . . . . . . 278i .I. i i i-

i ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279 I.., ii .., i .. ii

i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280 .., .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282 .. i i i

() i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283 .. i i -

i i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 284 .., .., .., .. -

, () . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285

I.., i .. i ii- i ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286

i .. i i() i (GRP) . . . . . . 287

i .I. i i i, i i- i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 288

.. ii i . . . . . . . . 289 .., .., .., .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290





.. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291

.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292

.., .. i i i -i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293

.. I i i i ii i ii i . . . . . . 294

.., .., .. . . . . 295

.., .. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 296

.. i i i 297 .. i i i i i

i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 .., .. DE TSK

FOTSK FD FOTSK - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299

.., - .. - . . . . . . . 300

.., .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301

.., .., .., .., .. - - - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302

.. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303

.., .. - i i . . . . . . . . . . . 304

i .. I ii i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305

.. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306

.. . . . . . . . . 307

.. 308 .., ..

, - . . . . . . . . . . . . 309

.. i i: i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311 .. iii i i i i-

ii i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312 .. Ii i i -

i oi ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313 .. i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 314 .. ii ii . . . . . . . . . . 315





.. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316

.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 317

i I.., I.. ii i i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318

.., .., .., .., - .. . . . . 319

.., I.. i i i- i i ii . . . . . . . . . 320

.. ii i - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321

.. 322i .. ii -

i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323 .. ii i i-

i ii i . . . . . . . . 324 .. - 325 ..

. . . . . . . 326 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327 .. - . . 328 .. . . 329 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 330 .., ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332 .., ..

- . . . . . . . 333i .., .., .. i ii

ii i i i . . . . . . 334 .., i .I. i ii335i I.. i i i -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 336 .. i

i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337 .. I i i -2 i-

i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 338 .., .. i Data Mining i

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 339 .. . . 340 .., .., .., .., .. -

- - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341

.., .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342

.. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 343





.. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 344

.. 345 .. VARSIMAX. , , , -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 346 .., .., .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347

.., .., .. . . . . 348

Section 3. Grid-technologies in science and education 3. - i 3. i-i i i ii 349Gorodetska N.V. Semantic Grid Implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 351Kostyuchenko A.O. Review of high-precision curvature-compensated bandgap voltage

references designs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 352Pospishniy O.S., Stirenko S.G. Using semantic technologies to improve Grid resource

management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 353Sergeev A.A. Time series forecasting in multimodal interface device controlling . . . . 354Shvaichenko O.V. Methods of designing analog-to-digital converters design trend review355Shvets O.A. Creation and usage of the remote laboratory for the studies of AVR family

controllers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 356 .., .., .. i ii -

i i i i i . . . . . . . . 357i .. i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 358 .., .I. iii i -

ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 359 .. i - i-ii i . . . . 360 .., I .I., .. i i iii SCP-ECG

i i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361 .., I .I., I .I. ii i-

i i i i . . . 362 .., .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363 .., - .. -

Condor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 364i .., .., .. ii i

i i-i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365 .., .. ii Grid-ii i-

Grid-i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366 .. SVM KDA 367 .., .. i i . . . . . . . . . 368 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369 .., .. . 370 .., ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 371 .., .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 372i .., i .., i .. i -

GRID-i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 373





.. i i i . . . . . . . . . . . 374 .. i . . . . . . . . . . 375 .., - .. BOINC -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 376 .. i i . . . . . 377 .. -

Grid- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 378 .., .., .. ii i

ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379 .., .. -

Grid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 380 .. Ii i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 381 .., .., .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 382 .., .. GRID-

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 383 .., .. I i 384 .., ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385 .., ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 386 .. i-i i ,

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 387ii .., .I., i .. i i

I- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 388 .. i-i i ii . . . 389 .. i i i (Distributed

Data Mining) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 390 .., .., .. -

CUDA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 391

.. Grid . . . . . . . . . . . . 392i .., .., .. i i ii

i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394 .. i ii ii395 .. iii ii . . . . . . . . 396 .. . . . . . . . 397 .. i-i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 398 .. -

- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 399

Section 4. Progressive information technologies 4. i 4. i iii i 401Archvadze N.N., Pkhovelishvili M.G., Shetsiruli L.D. Several issues of programs synthesis403Bondarenko M.A. Necessity of creation of virtual laboratory of physical research of

materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 404Dzuba V.G., Gumeniuk V.V. System of automatic detection of the drivers state . . . 405Dzuba V.G., Kamenkovych S.Yu. Road sign recognition system . . . . . . . . . . . . . 406





Megrelishvili R., Besiashvili G., Shengelia S. New one-way matrix function and thepublic keyexchange . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 407

Shekhovtsov V.A. Towards a reference architecture to support stakeholder assessmentsof the proposed software quality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 408

Sloboda K.O. Web-forum audience extension by means of social networks . . . . . . . 409 .., .., ..

. . . . . . . . . 410i .., .. i-

i ii . . . . . . . . . . . . 411 .. i i ii i subdivision -

i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 412 .. 413 .., ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 414 .. E-tutoring 21- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 415 .., .. 416 .. UNL- -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 417 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 418

i .I., .. i Java i i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 419

ii .., .., i .. ii -i i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 420

.I., .. i -i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 421

.., .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 422

.., .. WEB- . . . . . . . . . 423 .. i ii i

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 424i I.. i i i

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 425 .., .. TDM All-IP -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 426 I.. i i i

i ii - i-ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 427

.., .. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 428

.., .. - - . . . . . . . . 429

.., .. , - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 430

.., .. i cloud-ii 431 .., I.. i i Web-

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 432 .. -

OpenGPSS, GPSS World AnyLogic . . . . . . . . 433





I.., .. i ii ii i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 434

i .., I.., .., .I. i -i i i ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 435

i .., .. i i , i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 436

ii .., .. i -i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 437

.. i i - i (2504000 ), -i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 438

.. web- i SQL-ii . . . . . . . 439 .. i i

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 440 .I. ci ii i ii

i ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441I .., .. i TDD . . . . . . . . . . . 442 ..

- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 443

.., .. i i - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 444

.., .. i i ii i -i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 445

.. . ROOT . . . . . . 446 .., .. i . 447 .., .. i ii -

i . . . . . 448 .., .. Java -

- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 449

.., .. , - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 450

.., .., i .. Iii i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 451

i .. ii i i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 452

.I., .. ii . . . . . 453 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 454 ..

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 455 .., .., .., .. -

CUDA - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 456

.., .. WebAllted . . . . . . . . . 457 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 458





.., .., .. ii -i ii i i - i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 459

.., .. S- - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 460

.., .., .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 461

.. . . . . . . 462 .. i ii i

ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 463 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 464

.., .. Visual Prolog 465 .., .. UML -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 466 .. web-

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 467 .., .. -

4- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 468

.., .. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . 469

.., I .. i i . . 470 .., .. Ii ii i i-

i ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471 .., .. -

- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 472

.., .. - (2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 473

.. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474

.. i i i i . . . . . . . . . . 475 .., .. ii -

i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 476 .., .., .. GPU

UNI-DEM . . . . . . . . . . . . . 477 .. ,

. . . . . . . . . . . 478 .. -

, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 479

.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 480

.. -SSA i i- i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 481





.. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 482

.. -i - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 483

.., .., .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 484

.. i i . . . . . . . . . 485 .., .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 486 .., .. i

i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 487 .., .. ii -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 488 .., ..

. . . . . . . . . . 489 .., .I. XML-i ii

- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 490 .., .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . 491 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 492 .. i i i i-i . . 493 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 494 , .. SAC-

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 495i .. i i MPLS . . . . . . . . . . . . 496 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 497i .. -i

i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 498i .., i .. i i -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 499 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 500 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 501 .. -

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 502 .. ii i . . . . . . . . . . . 503 .. SQL i i . . . . . . . . . . 504i .., I.. i ii

i Windows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 505 .., .. -

Java . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 506 .. . . . . . . . . 507 .I. i i- -

i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 508 .., .., .. -ii

ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 509





.I., .. -i i i i - i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 510

.., i .. i i ii i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 511

i .., i .., .. Web-i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 512

.., .., .. ORM- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 513

.., .., .. - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 514

.., .., .. - . . . . . . . . . 515

.., .. i ii i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 516

.. 517 .., .., I.. ii i

ii i -ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 518

Section 5. Academic programs: partnership of science and business 5. : i 5. ii : i 519 .., .., .., .. -

SAP 521 .I. i i i Credit Scoring

SAS Enterprise Miner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 522 .., .. -

- SAS Enterprise Miner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 523 ..

- - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 524 .. SAS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 526 .., i .I., .. -

I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 528 .. SAS Enterprise Miner i i-

i i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 529

Conference partners i 531NetCracker Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 532EPAM Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 534 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 535SAS / . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 537 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 539

Authors 540




Plenary talks

System analysis ofcomplex systems of

various nature

Intelligent systems fordecision-making

Grid-technologies inscience and education

Progressive informationtechnologies

Academic programs:partnership of science

and business

Conference partners

Plenary talks

Plenary talks i ii 24

I.. I, , ,

i -i i i i ii

ii i i -ii i i i. i - i -i ii i i -i i i i [1]. i ii -i i i, -i i i, i i ii, ii . - i-i i i - i , i i i- i. - i i [2,3] ii - - i ii - i iiii ii i i iii-i i. i i i i i- i i ii, i i -. i i i ii i . i ii ii-ii i i - i ii i - . ii ii , - i i i, i i i i i i ii, i i i i i i i i i i i i ii i -i-i - i i - .

i1. .., .. (, ,

). .: , 2005. 743 .2. I.., ii i i i

ii i i i i (i ). Proc. The Information Technology Contribution to theBuilding of a Safe Regional Environment, AFCEA, Europe Seminar, Kiev, 2830.05.98,. 4450.

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5. Gorelova G.V., Verba V.A., Byanov B.J. xperience in cognitive modeling of complexsystems // Cubernetics and systems 2010, Proceedings of the 20-th European Meeting onCybernetics and Systems Research. Pr. In Austria, Vienna, 2010. p. 220223.

6. Gorelova G.V., Zakharova E.N. Gorelova I.S. Cognitive analysis of the structure andscenario development of socio-economic system // Proceedings of the XII-th InternationalConference Cognitive Modeling in Linguistics, CML-2010. September, 714. 2010.Dubrovnik, Croatia. p. 222226.

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Inequalities for Earth Data Processing I. Heidelberg, Springer. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-13837-9.2. Zgurovsky M.Z., Melnik V.S., Kasyanov P.O. (2010) Evolution Inclusions and Variation

Inequalities for Earth Data Processing II. Heidelberg, Springer. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-13878-2.3. Zgurovsky M.Z., Kasyanov P.O., Valero J. (2010) Noncoercive evolution inclusions for Sk type

operators. International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos. doi:10.1142/S0218127410027386.4. P.O.Kasyanov, V.S.Melnik, S. Toscano (2010) Solutions of Cauchy and periodic problems for

evolution inclusions with multi-valued pseudomonotone maps. Journal of DifferentialEquations. doi:10.1016/j.jde.2010.05.008.

5. O.V.Kapustyan, P.O.Kasyanov, J. Valero (2011) Pullback attractors for a class of extremalsolutions of the 3D Navier-Stokes equations. Journal of Mathematical Analysis andApplications. doi:10.1016/j.jmaa.2010.07.040.

6. Zadoyanchuk N.V., Kasyanov P.O. (2009) FaedoGalerkin method for second order evolutioninclusions with -pseudomonotone mappings. Ukrainian Mathematical Journal.doi:10.1007/s11253-009-0207-z.

7. Zadoyanchuk N.V., Kasyanov P.O. (2010) Analysis and control of second-orderdifferential-operator inclusions with +-coercive damping. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis.doi:10.1007/s10559-010-9208-z.

8. Kasyanov P.O., Melnik V.S., Valero J. (2008) On the method of approximation forevolutionary inclusions of pseudomonotone type. Bulletin of the Australian MathematicalSociety. doi:10.1017/S0004972708000130.

9. Kasyanov P.O. (2010) Differential-operator inclusions and multivariational inequalities withpseudomonotone mappings Cybernetics and Systems Analysis. doi: 10.1007/s10559-010-9205-2.





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Plenary talks

System analysis ofcomplex systems of

various nature

Intelligent systems fordecision-making

Grid-technologies inscience and education

Progressive informationtechnologies

Academic programs:partnership of science

and business

Conference partners

1System analysis ofcomplex systems ofvarious nature

Section 1System analysis of complex systems of various nature

1. System analysis methods for complex systems of various nature in conditions ofuncertainty and risks.

2. Mathematical methods, models and technologies for complex systems research.3. Technology foresight system methodology in problems of planning and strategic decisions

making.4. Theory and methods of optimal decision-making.5. Problem oriented methods of complex systems analysis and designing in conditions of

uncertainty and risks.6. Nonlinear problems of system analysis.7. System methodology of sustainable development.

1

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Section 1 1 i 1 41

Baranovskyi O.M.

NTUU KPI, PTI, Kyiv, Ukraine

Content monitoring as a new trend in quantitative evaluation of changesin social processes

Evaluation of the political activity is determined by political researchers in the manualmode. Thus only experts analyze the latest news of the political and public life, drawconclusions about changes in the political mood of society, determine the relationship ofvarious events and predict political activity evolution. The disadvantage of these methods isthat the researcher political preferences impose their imprint to the obtained results: somefacts get more positive judgment while others negative. That is why there is a need forobjective automated procedure as well as the methodology that will analyze recent news andcalculate causes of political manifestations and activity. It will also be able to track theincrease and decrease of intensity of political activities.

The main problem in creation of automated procedures is in the lack of stable sources ofdata in volumes that allow applying advanced methods of information processing, as well ascombining different data sources into a single knowledge base. One of the possible solutionsto this problem is, in our opinion, application of Internet content-analysis. The essence ofthe content-analysis is in the systematic isolation and fixation of certain text units, the dataquantification and subsequent results interpretation that allow us to evaluate and predict thebehavior of existing political systems.

Observations show that the structure and functioning of the socio-political systems exhibita system-wide self-similarity, i. e., a system more or less equally arranged in a wide rangeof spatial, temporal or quantitative scale, which is due to some measure of scale symmetry.Therefore, small fragments of the system may be similar to the whole system. To analyzethe use of self-similarity we use fractal analysis with the help of Hurst formula [1,2,3].

Results of our research show that the dynamics of the socio-political processes has somespecial properties. Periods of oscillation of values of quantitative indicators are irregular andthere are single and occasional spikes a sharp change in the values of quantitative indi-cators at some point in time. We also observed different patterns of socio-political processes,in particular periods of more or less regular dynamics followed by periods of chaotic oscilla-tions. These properties make it difficult to analyze such processes, in particular, there aredifficulties in identifying the exact moment of cycles (recurrence) and their duration, etc. Toanalyze processes with the above properties we applied wavelet analysis [1,2,4]. As a toolof wavelet transformation we have chosen the Daubechies wavelets the most well studiedand computationally convenient.

The processing sequences have identified specific relationships between types of politicalactivity in this case we revealed the general threshold of similar reactions of various types ofactivities to changes in the socio-political life on the deepest levels of decomposition, as wellas the presence of an inverse relationship between certain political activities (the oppositereaction to the changes). The obtained results are only a first step toward understandingthe nature of the socio-political processes. The main objectives that we set ourselves at themoment: the search for the best wavelet base functions, reasoning of their use and search forthe optimal delay (the segmentation of time series) for the fractal and multifractal analysisof the intensity of the socio-political activity.

References

1. Davydov A.A. System approach in sociology: new directions, theory and methods foranalyzing social systems. M.: KomKniga, 2005, 328 p.

2. Gorbulin V.P., Dodonov O.G., Lande D.V. Information operations and society secutiry:threats, fighting, simulation: monograph. K.: Intertehnolohiya, 2009, 164 p.

3. Tsvetkov I.V. Fractal analysis and its application to the analysis of time series.Materials for seminar with faculty, University of Kent. 04/01/2002.

4. Vityazev V.V. Wavelet time series analysis. St.: Publisher of St. PetersburgUniversity, 2001. 58 p.




Section 1 1 i 1 42

Khomchak M.V.

NTUU KPI, Kyiv, Ukraine

Workload characterization of bank securities processing application

Performance testing and evaluation are an essential pre-deployment step preceding roll-out and go-live of any information systems. Performance measurement is a very complexprocedure comprising evaluation of workload as a critical challenge. Workload characteriza-tion is the process, which consists of a description of the workload by means of quantitativeparameters and functions; the objective is to derive a model which is able to show, capture,and reproduce the behavior of the workload and its most important feature [1].

Almeida and Menasce [2] define workload characterization as a process of partitioning theglobal workload of a computer system into smaller sets or workload components composed oftransactions or requests, having similar characteristics, and assigning values that representtheir typical resource demand and intensity. This paper focuses on the approach of bankstypical back-office applications partitioning.

Ron Lee proposed the following levels of workload characterization [3]:

Characterization level Perspective Components

Functional Users view Series of transactions such as reports, queries,sorts, and searches, click, etc.

Logical Programmers view Sequences of remote procedure calls, batchjobs, feeds, etc.

Physical Computers view CPU, memory, I/O utilization

Although above method is tried-and-true it isnt effective enough when employing in con-ditions of a real business. Author faced with lost in translation capturing requirement ofbusiness representatives. Thus, additional workload level has been introduced. This level,called Business Level, together with top-down analysis approach allows performance en-gineer collect very high-level components (equities trade lifecycle stages in our case) whichare clear business entities and de-couple them down to functional, logical and physical levelstranslating finally into requirement to physical infrastructure. As a result, we defined a spe-cial non-functional requirement form for each of the trade life cycle stages: inception, capture,validation, instruction generation, confirmation, agent matching, settlement, accounting andP&L analysis. Interviewing business representatives, responsible for each of above activities,weve identified high-level business components and associated them with performance re-quirement parameters known for business. For example, interview with accountant gave usnon-IT perspective on processes called Positions and Balances where we managed to identifythe following workload components: end of day balance histories, trade mapping, settlementmapping and overnight snapshot jobs. Then top-down approach has been applied and wevetransformed business terminology into functional blocks of application. Continuing withtop-down approach finally arrived to clear view on hardware components requirements.

Such method has been tested and proofed as effective and efficient in order to meet SupportLevel Agreements confirmed by business.

References

1. M.Calzarossa, L.Massari, D.Tessera, Workload Characterization Issues andMethodologies, in Performance Evaluation, New York, NY, 2000, pp. 459481.

2. D.Menasce, V.Almeida, R.Riedi, F. Pelegrinelli, R. Fonseca, and W.Meira Jr., In Searchof Invariants for E-Business Workloads, in Proc. Second ACM Conference on ElectronicCommerce, Minneapolis, MN, October 1720, 2000. doi: 10.1145/352871.352878.

3. R. Lee. (1991) An Introduction to Workload Characterization. [Online]. Available:http://support.novell.com/techcenter/articles/ana19910503.html.




Section 1 1 i 1 43

Kozlov K.V., Makukha M.P.

ESC IASA NTUU KPI, Kyiv, Ukraine

Using situation calculus for automated project planning

Planning is an important stage of scenario analysis and plays key role in solving variousproblems: foresight [1], project management, public policy development, decision making,synthesis of complex systems [2], intelligent agent behavior and many others.

Plan is often considered as a sequence of states, or situations, connected by actions thatare modelled by transitions between states. Situations can hold properties, or fluents, thatdescribe quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the situation. Actions have precondi-tions, that make action possible in all situations where preconditions are met. Actions canchange the current state of the system and have effects. Both effects and preconditions arestated in terms of fluents. There are several planning methods: forward planning is uncon-strained by the goal and results in all plans that are possible from given initial situation;regression planning (goal-based planning, backwards planning) searches a plan backwardsstarting from the desired situation and is not constrained by the initial situation.

Well-known approaches for plans formalization and automated planning include situationcalculus [3], STRIPS [4] and others. Free software and programming languages for automatedplanning include general-purpose instruments like Prolog, Otter (or its successor Prover9,www.cs.unm.edu/mccune/prover9) and many others; specialized and commercial softwaretools are developed as well.

In situation calculus, primitive actions, complex actions, fluents, and objects need to bespecified. Axioms of three types are used to describe actions:

(, , ) (, ), (1)

(, ) + (, , ) (, (, )), (2)

(, ) (, , ) (, (, )), (3)where is an action, is a situation; predicate (, ) shows whether is possible in ;

formula (, , ) describes preconditions of ; formulas + (, , ) and (, , ) describe

conditions that make fluent true or false respectively as a result of action ; is a vectorof parameters. Here (1) is a precondition axiom, (2) and (3) are positive and negative effectaxioms respectively. A single precondition axiom is required for each primitive action.

It is shown how situation calculus can be applied to automated planning of the housebuilding project. As a result, the set of possible project plans, satisfying duration and costsconstraints, were obtained. Each plan is accompanied by its outcomes the set of fluentsthat are factual in resulting situation.

Computing the set of all possible project realizations may require significant computa-tional resources. Introducing quantitative objectives, such as project duration and projectrealization cost, in addition to indicative goals describing the desired situation, can signifi-cantly narrow the set of possible plans. In this case, a Pareto set of feasible project plans canbe computed, a rational plan can be selected, and reasoning tree pruning heuristics can beused to speed up automated reasoning. Both Prolog and Prover9 provide various mechanismsto incorporate heuristics into the planner program.

Modeling techniques, recommendations, and best design practices, obtained for automatedplanning in project management, can be immediately applied in scenario analysis and com-plex systems synthesis.

References1. .. , .., , : ii,

2005.2. M.Z. Zgurovsky, N.D. Pankratova, System Analysis: Theory and Applications, Springer, 2007.3. J.McCarthy, P.J.Hayes, Some Philosophical Problems from the Standpoint of Artificial

Intelligence, B.Meltzer and D.Michie, eds., Edinburgh University Press, 1969, pp. 463502.4. R.E. Fikes and N.J.Nilsson, STRIPS: A new approach to the application of theorem proving,

Artificial Intelligence Journal, vol. 2, 1971, pp. 189208.



http://www.cs.unm.edu/~mccune/prover9/http://sait.kpi.uahttp://iasa.kpi.uahttp://kpi.uahttp://sait.kpi.ua/books/sait2011.ebook.pdf/view

Section 1 1 i 1 44

Muttalibova Sh.F., Hasanov A.A., Pashayeva M.M., Kerimova S.I.

Azerbaijan National Aerospace Agency, Baku, Azerbaijan

Modeling of natural destructive processes for solving of environmentalproblems

In ecology for study and forecasting of natural destructive processes on a large scale,the modeling process is used. Modeling is the method of investigation of complex objects,phenomena and processes by means of a simplified simulation (physical, mathematical, ge-ological and logical). For study and forecasting of natural destructive phenomena physical,geographical and mathematical models are commonly used. The importance of this work isthat, for evaluation and forecasting of natural destructive processes (as mud-flow), in partic-ular, to identify factors, that play a main role in the creation of mud-flow processes, physical,geographical and mathematical modeling was applied.

Figure 1. Grouped objects

As investigating object, the basin riverof Kish of Azerbaijan Republic was se-lected. With using space images and GIS-technologies digital electronic maps of geo-logical, geomorphological, land use, soil andvegetation were created for the basin riverKish and the risk of mud-flow processes wasassessed on ball scale [1]. Input informa-tion and results were accumulated in thedatabase. Grouped together all the objects(fig. 1), which assessed the risk of 5 bal, se-lected layers were taken as sources of mud-flow processes.

Using information, collected in thedatabase, a method to determine the fac-tors, that play a main role in the creationof mud-flow processes was developed. Themud-flow processes can be formed in those places, where the state of danger of the mud-flowreceived a high bal in all layers (soil, vegetation, geological, geomorphological, land use). Asa result the model function = (,) has been taken.

Then a mathematical model to determine the factors, which play a main role in theformation of mud-flow processes, would be as follows:

(,) = max=1,330

5=1

= max{11 + 22 + 33 + 44 + 55 | = 1, 330}, (1)

11 in land use, 22 in vegetation, 33 in soil, 44 in geological, and 55 in the geomorphological structure the extreme conditions of formation of mud-flow processes.After the work programs the coefficients of systems of equation have the following estimation:

= max=1,330

{0.011 + 0.022 + 0.02993 + 0.044 + 0.0995}. (2)

In the formula (2) obtained coefficients show, that in the composition of the mud-flow andfor formation of mud-flow processes the geological, geomorphological structure and the soilwere playing the main role. In this work as the input data were used the information aboutthe basin of river Kish.

This model can be applied to other rivers, but considering, that the input data mustconform to these rivers. This model can prognosticate the mud-flow processes.

References

1. Muttalibova Sh.F. Formation conditions of mud-flow and digital map of sources ofmud-flow / Journal News of NASA of Azerbaijan, Baku, 2006, v.9, N2, Pp. 3236.




Section 1 1 i 1 45

Oganesyan Gayane

NTUU KPI, Kyiv, Ukraine

Analysis of financial sustainable growth

In recent years, financial instability has become a major impediment, or one may evencall it a threat to global sustainable development. The scope of the recent global financialcrisis of 20072009, and its implications in the form of a prolonged recession in economicdevelopment, especially in developed countries, has directed the attention of academia andpoliticians alike to finding better ways to identify the risks and threats to the stability of thewhole financial system.

The inability of policy-makers to head-off or prevent the recent crisis in countries aroundthe world may be associated with the general fragmentation of financial and macroeconomicassessment [1]. For example, in USA, policy-makers didnt contrast the rising risks in theshadow financial sector with the risks of the economy-wide trends in credit growth, leverageand house prices, and therefore, could not understand their nature and possible consequences.In other words, leading macroeconomic and financial indicators were analyzed separately.This kind of approach in assessing financial stability did not encompass the macro-financiallinkages, and ultimately led to ineffective and untimely policy decisions. In order to compre-hend these macro-financial linkages and assess the stability of the whole financial system, aflow-of-funds model may be used [2].

The modified flow-of-funds model (MFFModel) proposed by me shows the links betweenthe real and financial sectors of the economy, and between two aforementioned sectors andthe foreign economy sector. MFFModel considers the increasingly fast-paced financial sectordevelopment observed in all economies around the world in comparison to the slow-pacedreal sector development. It incorporates also the fact that in recent years the financial sectorhas begun to play an extractive, rather than supportive role in the economy, meaning thatthe state of the real economy now relies on financial sector development.

MFFModel can be used not only to determine macro-financial linkages in assessing finan-cial stability, but also to determine financial sustainable growth. The links in this model arerepresented as circular flows of money pa

· udc[519.7/.8:(004+007)](100)(06) ББК22.18я43+72я43 С40 volumeeditor:...

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