国际宏观经济政策 理论与实例 spring, 2005 instructor 何茵 朗润园 620 tel ：...
TRANSCRIPT
国际宏观经济政策理论与实例
Spring, 2005
T.A.
史晓霞
Textbooks
Macroeconomics, N. Gregory Mankiw
World Publisher
《宏观经济学》 ( 第 4 版 ) 格里高利•曼昆 人民大学出版社， 2000 年
参考书：《全球视角的宏观经济学》 捷弗里 • 萨科斯等著，费方域等译 上海三联书店 • 上海人民出版社 1997
Grading
Homework ： 10% Project: 20% Quiz: 10% Mid-term: 30% Final: 30%
Group Project
Anything you feel interested in Macroeconomics
Paper (10%) --- short
Presentation (10%) --- peer evaluation
Group Project
Paper
1. Raise the question2. Existing literature3. Your hypothesis or analysis
Tables or graphs w/ data are preferredSome econometrics analysis is a plus
Economics Jacob Viner (Harvard, 1892-1970)Jacob Viner (Harvard, 1892-1970) --- “a thing that the economists do” John Maynard Keynes (Cambridge, 1883-1946)John Maynard Keynes (Cambridge, 1883-1946) --- “an easy subject, at which few excel!”
Lionel Robbins (Cambridge, 1898-1984)Lionel Robbins (Cambridge, 1898-1984) EconomicsEconomics is a science that studies human behavior
as a relationship between ends (wants) and scarce means (scarcity) that have alternate use.
Economics Studies human behavior --- Uncertainty
*** It depends… ***
on what? --- factors Why? --- intuitions How? --- logic Conclusions?
Economics Should you get married? Well, it depends. (Yes! You’re right! )
--- the onethe one? --- she/he want to get married as well? --- age --- personality & life style --- psychological cost ……
Economics
Should the developing countries liberalize the foreign investment?
--- Type Portfolio (stock market; financial system) Direct (form;sectors;areas) --- Scale……
Reasons to Learn Macroeconomics
1. It affects society’s well-being
2. It affects individual well-being
3. It affects politics
Example (Unemployment) Social impact--- Each 1% increase in the unemployment rate is
associated with: 920 more suicides 650 more homicides 4000 more people admitted to state mental
institutions 3300 more people sent to state prisons 37,000 more deaths Increases in domestic violence and homelessness
Example (Unemployment)
Individual impact
--- consumption
--- investment
--- other individual decisions
Politics
--- election
Contents in Macroeconomics
1. The economy in the long run
2. The economy in the short run
3. Policy debate
4. Open economy policy
The economy in the LR (Growth)
GDP Per Capita U.S.(constant 95 US$)
0. 00E+005. 00E+031. 00E+041. 50E+042. 00E+042. 50E+043. 00E+043. 50E+04
The economy in the LR (Growth)
GDP Per Capita China (constant 95 US$)
0. 00E+002. 00E+02
4. 00E+026. 00E+02
8. 00E+021. 00E+03
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
The economy in the LR (Unemployment)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999
Year
Unempl oyment Rate
Chi na
Uni ted States
The economy in the LR (Money and Inflation)
I nfl ati on Rate % (consumer pri ces)
- 10
0
10
20
30
Year Chi naUni ted States
The Economy in the Short Run
Introduction to economic fluctuations
Aggregate Demand
Aggregate Supply
Policy Debate
How to make policy in an uncertain world?
1) Should policy be active or passive
2) Should policy be conducted by rule or
by discretion?
Government Debt & Budget Deficit
Tradition views of government debt
Ricardian Equivalence
Other thoughts about government debt
Government Debt & Budget Deficit
- 3000- 2500- 2000- 1500- 1000- 500
0500
亿元
1978 1990 1992 1995 1997 2000
年份
中国政府财政赤字（亿元）
Government Debt & Budget Deficit
-3. 50E+13-3. 00E+13-2. 50E+13-2. 00E+13-1. 50E+13-1. 00E+13-5. 00E+120. 00E+005. 00E+121. 00E+13
$
1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997
Year
Budget Defi ci t (U. S. )
Open Economy Policy
Exchange rate The Mundell-Fleming model The Small Open Economy (SOE) under
floating exchange rates The SOE under fixed exchange rates Should exchange rates be floating or fixed?