" single cmo " management committee 22 september 2011

group housing of pregnant sows as applicable from 1 January 2013

"Single CMO" Management Committee22 September 2011

DG AGRI C4 22 September 2011 2

Development of the EU Pig Carcasses price

115

135

155

175

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

€/1

00

kg

5 yr Avg (06-10) 2008 2009 2010 2011


Percentual change in Pig prices August 2011

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT LU HUMT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SV UK EU

Diff

eren

ce in

€ur

o in

%

-1 year

- 1 month


Development of the EU Piglet price

25

35

45

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

€/ p

iec

e

5 yr avg (06 - 10) 2008 2009 2010 2011


Change in Pig slaughter Jan - June 2011/2010Avg increase 1,8%

May slaughter shows bigger increase as expected.

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

be bg cz dk de ee ie gr es fr it cy lv lt lu hu mt nl at pl pt ro si sk fi se uk EU

in %

Jan = +1,3% Feb = +5,7% Mrz = -0,3% Apr = -2%5% May= +7,2% June= +0,4% BG & RO: Increase, or more offical and less non official slaughter?


Relation between monthly pig slaughterings and weekly pig carcass prices 2009 - 2011

1 100

1 300

1 500

1 700

1 900

2 100

2009 2010 2011

Sla

ug

hte

r in

100

0 T

105.00

115.00

125.00

135.00

145.00

155.00

165.00

175.00

Eu

ro/ 100kg

(expected) Slaughter EU 27 PriceSource: EU Commission DG AGRI

NB: Monthly Slaughter "official" slaughter only


May - June 2011 Pig Survey results.12 MSs Communicated data

2 MSs did not respect the legal obligations (19.9.2011)

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

BE DK DE IE ES FR IT HU NL ÖS PL RO SE UK

To

tal p

igs

in 1

000

hea

ds

2008 2009 2010 2011

Total - 0,5%Piglets + 0,9%Y. pigs -1.0%Mated Sows -4.8%of which:1st time mated -6.4%


Slaughter: Quarterly change compared to the same period in the previous year (GIP Data only)

last update: 19.9.2011 (19 MSs only)missing : DK, IT, CY, HU, MT, NL, AT, SE

-6,0%

-4,0%

-2,0%

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

Ch

ang

e in

%

Q1 -4,5% -0,5% 1,8% 1,2%

Q2 -2,6% -1,0% 2,6% -1,6%

Q3 -3,8% 3,5% 1,8%

Q4 -1,5% 0,1% 2,6%

Ann -3,1% 0,5% 1,5%

2009 2010 2011 2012


Price of Basic Ingredients 2008 - 2011

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Juil Oct Jan 09 April Juil Oct Jan 10 April Juil Oct Jan-11 April Juil Oct Jan-12

Euro

/ to

nne

Soft Wheat (EU)

Barley (EU)

Maïs (EU)

Soja (CAF)

Hulls (EU)

Manioc (CAF)

C.G.F. (CAF)


Futures for Soybeans in US$ct/ Bushel (nearby = 2010 & 2011)

850

1 000

1 150

1 300

1 450

| July2010

| Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan2011

| Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. |

01 Nearby

2011 08 Aug

2011 09 Sep

2011 11 Nov

2012 01 Jan

Delivery:


Futures for Feed wheat EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2010 & 2011)

80

110

140

170

200

| July2010


| Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |

€uro

/ Ton

n

01 Nearby

2011 Nov

2012 Jan

2012 May

2012 Nov


Futures for Maize EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2010 - 2011)

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

| July2010


| Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |

€/To

nn

01 Nearby

2011 Aug

2011 Nov

2012 Jan

Delivery:


Comparisson between Compoundfeed for Pigs and a Cereal-Feedmix

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |

Euro

/ 10

0kg (

pig

carc

ase

)

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

€uro

/ T (

cere

alm

ix &

Com

p. fe

ed)

margin pig/ comp. Feed (4.4 > 4.0)Pig carcaseAvg Margin 2006 - 2010 (43.83€/100kg)Cereal-mixCompound feed

NB: Feed & feed components: July - Aug. = forecast. Sept. - Dec. = Estimation Pig Carcase price: Aug. - Dec. = forecast


Weekly average Pigprices 2007 - 2010 in Euro/ 100kg carcase

EU, Brazil and the US

55,0

75,0

95,0

115,0

135,0

155,0

175,0

| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |

weeksEUUSBraz. avgCDN Quebec

EU = weighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meatUS = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa-Minn. 167-187lbBR = avg of maximum prices in main producing states (suino.com.br)CDN= Quebeck index 100 (agr.gc.ca)


Pigprices in US and EU and forecastsEU forecast: Working group priceforecast pigmeat

US Forecast: Chicago Mercantile Exchange

70

95

120

145

170

195

| 09 | 10 | 11 | 12

€uro

/ 10

0kg

EU

US


Weekly exchange rate US dollar 2007 - 2011

1 €uro = ………US$

1

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

1,5

1,6

1,7

| 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 |


Trade in Pigmeat


46

13

5

59

72

0

71

93

7

51

64

1

63

80

0

55

91

8

56

07

7

54

49

9

72

27

6

22

61

2

21

73

0

32

36

8

43

17

9

59

83

8

51

66

2

43

40

1

21

23

9

88

1 0

11

94

3 4

05

1 0

83

23

0

1 2

38

13

8

1 5

56

96

1

1 5

45

90

7

1 3

31

80

8

1 5

26

56

3

1 5

09

30

2

1 7

80

56

8

1 9

38

45

5

2 0

89

36

3

1 9

10

90

8

2 5

69

08

7

2 3

84

53

6

2 6

85

31

9

1 7

59

76

9

0

250 000

500 000

750 000

1 000 000

1 250 000

1 500 000

1 750 000

2 000 000

2 250 000

2 500 000

2 750 000

3 000 000

3 250 000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-Jul 11

To

nn

es

pro

du

ct

we

igh

t

IMPORTS EXPORTS

EU trade of PIG products


EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

OriginsOriginsCompared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to J an-J ul 11

Switzerland 10 476 24% 12 377 21% 17 240 33% 17 481 40% 10 116 48% 4%

Chile 12 323 29% 17 142 29% 16 557 32% 8 874 20% 4 395 21% -19%

USA 9 065 21% 21 532 36% 6 416 12% 5 616 13% 842 4% -82%

Croatia 2 863 7% 3 965 7% 4 061 8% 5 250 12% 2 588 12% -10%

Canada 2 660 6% 53 0% 340 1% 414 1% 26 0% -93%

Serbia 1 217 3% 1 181 2% 387 1% 851 2% 1 441 7% +++

Other 4 576 11% 3 588 6% 6 661 13% 4 916 11% 1 831 9%

EXTRA EU 25/27 43 179 59 838 51 662 43 401 21 239

% change + 39% - 14% - 16% - 20.7%

2007 2008 2009 Jan-Jul 112010


EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27 (Tonnes prod. weight)

3 377 4 801842

11 0345 433

4 395

9 377

9 697

5 388

2 958

10 116

3 298

31 157

26 784

21 239

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

Jan-Jul 09 Jan-Jul 10 Jan-Jul 11

USA Chile Switzerland

Croatia Argentina Other destinations

IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27 (1000 EUR)

8 208 12 2772 615

23 889 13 887

14 194

13 668

9 473

7 204

52 438

43 286

33 284

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000


USA Chile SwitzerlandCroatia Argentina Other destinations


I mpor t s of sel ect ed PI G product s

0

1 500

3 000

4 500

6 000

|J an 06

2006 |J an 07

2007 |J an 08

2008 |J an 09

2009 |J an 10

2010 |J an 11

2011 |J an 12

i n Tonnes ( pr oduct wei ght )

FRESH FROZEN FAT OTHERS


EU exports of selected PIG products:Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

DestinationsDestinationsCompared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Jul 11

Russia 647 052 33.9% 769 044 29.9% 760 880 31.9% 809 149 30.1% 487 277 27.7% + 7%

Hong Kong 243 171 12.7% 462 299 18.0% 413 548 17.3% 421 948 15.7% 292 943 16.6% + 26%

Japan 232 951 12.2% 236 609 9.2% 186 134 7.8% 223 903 8.3% 131 644 7.5% - 0%

China 86 345 4.5% 147 951 5.8% 178 725 7.5% 212 020 7.9% 178 552 10.1% + 77%

Ukraine 2 757 0.1% 189 001 7.4% 147 030 6.2% 137 882 5.1% 48 591 2.8% - 28%

South Korea 137 421 7.2% 115 757 4.5% 95 163 4.0% 100 796 3.8% 125 912 7.2% + 113%

Philippines 34 243 1.8% 40 912 1.6% 26 572 1.1% 89 388 3.3% 59 866 3.4% + 13%

Croatia 56 151 2.9% 63 426 2.5% 70 697 3.0% 67 581 2.5% 37 037 2.1% + 8%

USA 66 472 3.5% 61 471 2.4% 55 495 2.3% 58 627 2.2% 35 302 2.0% + 3%

Belarus 10 509 0.5% 55 276 2.2% 28 369 1.2% 80 284 3.0% 55 793 3.2% + 91%

Australia 34 583 1.8% 45 621 1.8% 46 703 2.0% 50 310 1.9% 26 430 1.5% - 8%

Angola 48 637 2.5% 49 003 1.9% 45 424 1.9% 44 501 1.7% 32 904 1.9% + 43%

Other 310 615 16.3% 332 719 13.0% 329 795 13.8% 388 931 14.5% 247 518 14.1%EXTRA EU15-25-27 1 910 908 2 569 087 2 384 536 2 685 319 1 759 769

% change + 34% - 7% + 13% + 20.5%

2007 2008 2009 Jan-Jul 112010


EU exports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Tonnes prod. weight)

398 452 454 414 487 277

215 793232 629

292 943

131 644439 454

481 423

543 441

115 165131 979

1 323 1141 460 639

1 759 769

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

1 800 000

2 000 000


Tonn

es (p

rodu

ct w

eigh

t)

Russia Hong Kong China

Japan South Korea Other destinations

EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR)

517 731 614 867 736 350

214 474314 272

436 919

817 660853 989

1 030 867

402 805438 034

2 139 6592 320 028

2 963 936

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000

3 500 000


1,00

0 E

UR

Russia Hong Kong China

Japan South Korea Other destinations


Exports of selected PIG products

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

|Jan06

2006 |Jan07

2007 |Jan08

2008 |Jan09

2009 |Jan10

2010 |Jan11

2011 |Jan12

in T

on

ne

s (

pro

du

ct

we

igh

t)

FRESH FROZEN FAT LIVE ANIMALS OTHERS


Cumulated quantity of weekly requests

for Export licenses in the Pigmeat sector

for Gatt year 2011 - 2012

0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

To

nn

es

Cumulative quantity available

cumulative attributions

" single cmo " management committee 22 september 2011

Documents