" single cmo " management committee 20 july 2011

group housing of pregnant sows as applicable from 1 January 2013

"Single CMO" Management Committee20 July 2011

DG AGRI C4 20 July 2011 2

Development of the EU Pig Carcasses price

115

135

155

175

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

€/1

00

kg

5 yr Avg (06-10) 2008 2009 2010 2011


Percentual change in Pig prices June 2011

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT LU HUMT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SV UK EU

Diff

eren

ce in

€ur

o in

%

-1 year

- 1 month


Private Storage

prevision for de-stocking

Total May June July August

141 218 tons 28 175 52 873 24 873 35 297

~ 1 … 3% of monthly slaughter


Development of the EU Piglet price

25

35

45

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

€/ p

iec

e

5 yr avg (06 - 10) 2008 2009 2010 2011


Slaughter: Quarterly change compared to the same period in the previous year (GIP Data only)

situation: 30.3.2011

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

Ch

ang

e in

%

Q1 0.2% -3.1% 0.6% 1.6%

Q2 -0.3% -1.0% 0.2% 2.1%

Q3 -1.2% -2.3% 3.5% 0.1%

Q4 -4.5% -0.3% 0.8% -0.3%

Ann -1.5% -1.7% 1.2% 0.9%

2008 2009 2010 2011


Change in Pig slaughter Jan - May 2011/2010Avg increase 1,6%

May slaughter shows bigger increase as expected.

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

be bg cz dk de ee ie gr es fr it cy lv lt lu hu mt nl at pl pt ro si sk fi se uk EU

in %

Jan = +1,3% Feb = +5,6% Mrz = -0,3% Apr = -2,3 May= +4,2 forec. (+2,1%)

BG & RO: Increase, or more offical and less non official slaughter?


Relation between monthly pig slaughterings and weekly pig carcass prices 2009 - 2011

1 100

1 300

1 500

1 700

1 900

2 100

2009 2010 2011

Sla

ug

hte

r in

100

0 T

105.00

115.00

125.00

135.00

145.00

155.00

165.00

175.00

Eu

ro/ 100kg

(expected) Slaughter EU 27 PriceSource: EU Commission DG AGRI

NB: Monthly Slaughter "official" slaughter only


Price of Basic Ingredients 2008 - 2011

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan 08 April Juil Oct Jan 09 April Juil Oct Jan 10 April Juil Oct janv-11 April Juil

Euro

/ to

nne

Soft Wheat (EU)

Barley (EU)

Maïs (EU)

Soja (CAF)

Hulls (EU)

Manioc (CAF)

C.G.F. (CAF)


Futures for Soybeans in US$ct/ Bushel (nearby = 2010 & 2011)

850

1.000

1.150

1.300

1.450

| July2010

| Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan2011

| Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. |

01 Nearby

2011 08 Aug

2011 09 Sep

2011 11 Nov

2012 01 Jan

Delivery:


Futures for Feed wheat EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2010 & 2011)

80

110

140

170

200

| July2010


| Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |

€uro

/ Ton

n

01 Nearby

2011 Jul

2011 Nov

2012 Jan

2012 Mar


Futures for Maize EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2010 - 2011)

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

| July2010


| Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |

€/To

nn 01 Nearby

2011 Aug

2011 Nov

2012 Jan

Delivery:


TOEPFER weekly Cereal and Substitute prices 2008 - 2011

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 2 8 14 20 26 32 38 44 50 4 10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 6 12 18 24 30 36 42

US$

/T

FREIGHT Panamax soja beans USA soja pellets ARGCitrus p. Palm pitkernels EU maïs in US$C.G.F.

week 28 of 2011 -78% compared to

week 1 of 2008


Comparisson between Compoundfeed for Pigs and a Cereal-Feedmix

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |

Euro

/ 10

0kg (

pig

carc

ase

)

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

€uro

/ T (

cere

alm

ix &

Com

p. fe

ed)

margin pig/ comp. Feed (4.4 > 4.0)Pig carcaseAvg Margin 2006 - 2010 (43.83€/100kg)Cereal-mixCompound feed

NB: June - december estimations Pigprice: June - December forecast


Weekly average Pigprices 2007 - 2010 in Euro/ 100kg carcase

EU, Brazil and the US

55,0

75,0

95,0

115,0

135,0

155,0

175,0

| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |

weeksEUUSBraz. avgCDN Quebec

EU = weighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meatUS = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa-Minn. 167-187lbBR = avg of maximum prices in main producing states (suino.com.br)CDN= Quebeck index 100 (agr.gc.ca)


Pigprices in US and EU and forecastsEU forecast: Working group priceforecast pigmeat

US Forecast: Chicago Mercantile Exchange

70

95

120

145

170

195

| 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 |

€uro

/ 10

0kg

EU

US


Weekly exchange rate US dollar 2007 - 2011

1 €uro = ………US$

1

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

1,5

1,6

1,7

| 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 |


Trade in Pigmeat


46

13

5

59

72

0

71

93

7

51

64

1

63

80

0

55

91

8

56

07

7

54

49

9

72

27

6

22

61

2

21

73

0

32

36

8

43

17

9

59

83

8

51

66

2

43

40

1

15

12

1

88

1 0

11

94

3 4

05

1 0

83

23

0

1 2

38

13

8

1 5

56

96

1

1 5

45

90

7

1 3

31

80

8

1 5

26

56

3

1 5

09

30

2

1 7

80

56

8

1 9

38

45

5

2 0

89

36

3

1 9

10

90

8

2 5

69

08

7

2 3

84

53

6

2 6

85

31

9

1 2

29

07

0

0

250 000

500 000

750 000

1 000 000

1 250 000

1 500 000

1 750 000

2 000 000

2 250 000

2 500 000

2 750 000

3 000 000

3 250 000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-May11

To

nn

es

pro

du

ct

we

igh

t

IMPORTS EXPORTS

EU trade of PIG products


EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

OriginsOriginsCompared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to J an-May 10

Switzerland 10 476 24% 12 377 21% 17 240 33% 17 481 40% 7 441 49% 9%

Chile 12 323 29% 17 142 29% 16 557 32% 8 874 20% 2 954 20% -29%

Croatia 2 863 7% 3 965 7% 4 061 8% 5 250 12% 1 824 12% -7%

Serbia 1 217 3% 1 181 2% 387 1% 851 2% 958 6% +++

USA 9 065 21% 21 532 36% 6 416 12% 5 616 13% 554 4% -86%

Canada 2 660 6% 53 0% 340 1% 414 1% 26 0% -93%

Other 4 576 11% 3 588 6% 6 661 13% 4 916 11% 1 364 9%

EXTRA EU 25/27 43 179 59 838 51 662 43 401 15 121

% change + 39% - 14% - 16% - 34.4%

2007 2008 2009 Jan-May 112010


EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27 (Tonnes prod. weight)

8 711

2 0494 055

554

6 327

8 400 4 151

2 954

4 687

6 682

7 441

0

2 4424 716

2 3496 803

2 105

23 99423 039

20 089

15 121

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

Jan-May 08 Jan-May 09 Jan-May 10 Jan-May 11

USA Chile Switzerland

Croatia Argentina Other destinations

IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27 (1000 EUR)

18 763

4 98510 183

1 668

14 220

18 101 10 067

9 757

6 909

11 864

6 991

5 494

43 923

39 711

32 498

23 221

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000

Jan-May 08 Jan-May 09 Jan-May 10 Jan-May 11

USA Chile SwitzerlandCroatia Argentina Other destinations


I mpor t s of sel ect ed PI G product s

0

1 500

3 000

4 500

6 000

|J an 06

2006 |J an 07

2007 |J an 08

2008 |J an 09

2009 |J an 10

2010 |J an 11

i n Tonnes ( pr oduct wei ght )

FRESH FROZEN FAT OTHERS


EU exports of selected PIG products:Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

DestinationsDestinationsCompared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-May 10

Russia 647 052 33.9% 769 044 29.9% 760 880 31.9% 809 149 30.1% 341 695 27.8% + 8%

Hong Kong 243 171 12.7% 462 299 18.0% 413 548 17.3% 421 948 15.7% 200 306 16.3% + 15%

China 86 345 4.5% 147 951 5.8% 178 725 7.5% 212 020 7.9% 102 934 8.4% + 47%

Japan 232 951 12.2% 236 609 9.2% 186 134 7.8% 223 903 8.3% 100 831 8.2% + 13%

South Korea 137 421 7.2% 115 757 4.5% 95 163 4.0% 100 796 3.8% 98 438 8.0% + 127%

Philippines 34 243 1.8% 40 912 1.6% 26 572 1.1% 89 388 3.3% 45 618 3.7% + 19%

Belarus 10 509 0.5% 55 276 2.2% 28 369 1.2% 80 284 3.0% 35 876 2.9% + 103%

Ukraine 2 757 0.1% 189 001 7.4% 147 030 6.2% 137 882 5.1% 30 324 2.5% - 34%

USA 66 472 3.5% 61 471 2.4% 55 495 2.3% 58 627 2.2% 26 633 2.2% + 9%

Croatia 56 151 2.9% 63 426 2.5% 70 697 3.0% 67 581 2.5% 24 449 2.0% + 8%

Angola 48 637 2.5% 49 003 1.9% 45 424 1.9% 44 501 1.7% 23 212 1.9% + 38%

Australia 34 583 1.8% 45 621 1.8% 46 703 2.0% 50 310 1.9% 18 593 1.5% - 20%

Other 310 615 16.3% 332 719 13.0% 329 795 13.8% 388 931 14.5% 180 162 14.7%EXTRA EU15-25-27 1 910 908 2 569 087 2 384 536 2 685 319 1 229 070

% change + 34% - 7% + 13% + 30.8%

2007 2008 2009 Jan-May 112010


EU exports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Tonnes prod. weight)

266 402 316 683 341 695

157 617174 041 200 306

100 831319 960

338 062

384 867

82 79089 203

939 3011 031 637

1 229 070

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

Jan-May 09 Jan-May 10 Jan-May 11

Tonn

es (p

rodu

ct w

eigh

t)

Russia Hong Kong China

Japan South Korea Other destinations

EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR)

343 991 433 825 507 635

159 337207 399

330 607

583 861594 272

722 280

289 666292 576

1 519 4371 619 290

2 066 932

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

Jan-May 09 Jan-May 10 Jan-May 11

1,00

0 E

UR

Russia Hong Kong China

Japan South Korea Other destinations


Exports of selected PIG products

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

|Jan06

2006 |Jan07

2007 |Jan08

2008 |Jan09

2009 |Jan10

2010 |Jan11

in T

on

ne

s (

pro

du

ct

we

igh

t)

FRESH FROZEN FAT LIVE ANIMALS OTHERS


Cumulated quantity of weekly requests

for Export licenses in the Pigmeat sector

for Gatt year 2011 - 2012

0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

To

nn

es

Cumulative quantity available

cumulative attributions

" single cmo " management committee 20 july 2011

Documents

monthly slaughtertrade

private storageprevision