The Freshwater Cycle and its Role in the Pan-Arctic System:

Contributions from the NSF-Freshwater Initiative (FWI)

________________________________________________

SEARCH Open Science MeetingSeattle, WA

27-30 October 2003_________________________

Charles J. Vörösmarty University of New Hampshire

Goals Arctic-CHAMP/ASOF/SEARCH Freshwater Initiative (FWI)

Q1: Is the Arctic FW Cycle Intensifying?• Quantify Stocks and Fluxes• Document Changes to the Arctic

Hydrologic Cycle

Q2: If So, Why?• Understand the Source of the Change:

Attribution

Q3: What Are the Implications• Develop Predictive Simulations of

Feedbacks to the Earth and Human Systems

Arctic-CHAMP= Community-wide Hydrologic Analysis and Monitoring Program

ASOF = Int’l Arctic-Sub-Arctic Ocean Flux study

Rivers / Land•Hinzman

•Kane•Karabanov•Lettenmaier

•Peterson•Serreze•Smith•Yang

Atmosphere-Land-Ocean

•Holland/Wu•Semiletov

•Vörösmarty

Snow, Ice, Permafrost

•England•Pielke

•Yu•Zhang

Ocean & Sea Ice•Ackerman/Francis

•Falkner•Lee

•Proshutinsky•Steele

•Tremblay

FWI PROJECT THEMESCHAMP/ASOF/SEARCH

(AO NSF-02-071)

Human Dimensions

•White

Broad balance of: (a) time/space scales; (b) disciplines; (c) tools/approaches

Visit the CHAMP Science Management

Office Website http://arcticchamp.sr.unh.edu

NSF-ARCSS Charged Arctic-CHAMP to Help Coordinate FWI

-Oversight via SSC and FWI All-Hands Meetings

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Eurasian River Discharge (km

3/y)

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

slope = 2.0 ± 0.7 km3/y per yearp = 0.005 Eurasian River Discharge (Sv)

Earth System&

Societal Feedbacks

From: M. Vellinga; CLIVAR

Change to Freshwater Cycle

CompromiseTHC

Reduce Northward Heat Transport Enormous Societal Challenges (e.g. feed 10 billion)

Peterson et al. 2002, Science

Peterson et al. 2002

Major Earth System & Societal Feedbacks

• “Simple” questions asked ---> complex interactions uncovered• Gaps identified • Playing field on which disagreements can arise • Links physics, biogeochemistry, biology

Q: What is the impact of climate change on sea ice? Feedback and

System Sensitivity Studies (a la CHAMP)

Simple Process Models: First Formal Tests of Heuristic Notions

THC

Sea Ice

Heat Balance

The Freshwater Cycle Links Every Major Arctic Systems Component

-- Change Resonates through System--

• Physics• Biology• Biogeochemistry

• Natural variability • Anthropogenic

change• Human vulnerability

.… and central to the analysis of…….

Challenge: To Develop Dynamic Arctic Earth System Models

Community Model

High Permafrost Sub-Watershed

12 June 2001

5 June 2001

Sur

face

Soi

l Moi

stur

e (%

S

atur

atio

n)

Courtesy of Hinzman et al.

Kuparkuk (AK) 1995

End of Season Conditions

Fraction of winter precipitation returned to atmosphere

End of winter snow water equivalent depth distribution

Courtesy of Pielke et al.

Large-scale sections

Boundary current section

…based on Jones et al. (1998); Steele & Boyd (1998); Proshutinsky et al. (2002); Rigor et al. (2002)

From: Steele

et al.

From: Falkner et al.

FWI/ASOF Oceanographic Studies of Regional Sea Studies

Basin Studies of Water Budgets Components and Discharge

From: Lettenmaier et al.

Source data: Mark Serreze (CU), Mike Steele (UW), UNH, and government agencies from around the pan-Arctic

River Discharge

ArcticRIMSR-ArcticNET

E-RIMS FRAMEWORK FOR COUPLED PAN-ARCTIC LAND-OCEAN-ATMOSPHIRE STUDIES

Courtesy of Vörösmarty et al.

• Stocks, residence times• Critical but Uncertain Pathway: Atmospheric• Budget Closure Disparity Large

-- Land….1700 km3 y-1

--Ocean….2800 km3 y-1

A FIRST-ORDER ATTEMPT AT WATER BUDGET CLOSURE

Major FWI Challenges

• Integration across Projects• Build toward Systems Synthesis

– Assemble “the Basics”/ Test for Mutual Consistency

– Integrate Process Understanding into a “Unified View” to Address Feedbacks

– Local-->Basin-->Regional-->Pan-Arctic

• Entrain Graduate Students into System Synthesis