© oecd/iea 2013 monthly oil statistics (mos) joint organisations data initiative (jodi oil) energy...
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© OECD/IEA 2013
Monthly Oil Statistics (MOS)
Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI Oil)Energy Statistics Training
Paris, 4-8 March, 2013
Ágnes Nagy
Monthly Oil Statistics
© OECD/IEA 2013
Why collecting monthly oil data?
►Emergency Purposes
►Oil and Gas Market Analysis
►World-wide Data Dissemination
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The IEA monthly data system
1) MOS
2) JODI
3) Emergency data system (during supply disruption)
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Monthly Oil Questionnaire
JODI Questionnaire
M-1
M-2
Revisions to historical data
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Differences between the MOS and JODI questionnaire
M-2 M-1 Current month
FebruaryJanuaryDecember
JODIMonthly Oil Questionnaire
Monthly Oil Questionnaire for OECD countries requires more information than JODI
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Annual Oil Statistics
Gross Inland Deliveries
Total Final Consumption
Transport Sector
Industry Sector
ResidentialCommercialAgriculture
FishingEtc
Distribution Loss
Energy Sector
Transformation Sector
International Marine
Bunkers
Imports Stock Change
Recycled Products
ExportsProducts
Transferred
Gross Output
Interproduct Transfers
Refinery Fuel
Inland Deliveries
Primary Products Receipts
Annual Oil Questionnaire
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Monthly Oil Statistics
International Marine
Bunkers
Imports Stock Change
Recycled Products
ExportsProducts
Transferred
Gross Output
Interproduct Transfers
Refinery Fuel
Inland Deliveries
Primary Products Receipts
Gross Inland Deliveries
Total Final Consumption
Transport Sector
Industry Sector
ResidentialCommercialAgriculture
FishingEtc
Distribution Loss
Energy Sector
Transformation SectorEmergency stock coverage: 90-days
Monthly Oil Questionnaire
IEA/OECD
countries
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Paper publications Electronic FormMonthly Oil Data Service
(MODS)
►Worldwide oil data dissemination
Monthly Oil Survey
August 2004
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Oil Market ReportThe benchmark oil market analysis of where the oil market is today and where it is likely to be headingin the future
• Monitor the oil market
• Analyse trends in demand, supply, refinery
activity, trade, and stocks
• Inform the oil market with latest global data
• Project short term developments in the oil market.
Increasing usage of JODI data in particular for non-OECD countries.
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What is JODI
JODI was born in 2000 as Joint Oil Data Initiative
Oil data collection from almost all over the world (around 100 participating countries)
Purpose
It is a concrete outcome of the energy producer-consumer dialogue
oil data transparency
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JODI Background• An unusual high volatility in oil prices was observed at the end of the
90’s / beginning 2000• The lack of transparent and reliable oil statistics was identified as a
contributory factor
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan-
95
Mar
-95
May
-95
Jul-9
5
Sep-
95
Nov
-95
Jan-
96
Mar
-96
May
-96
Jul-9
6
Sep-
96
Nov
-96
Jan-
97
Mar
-97
May
-97
Jul-9
7
Sep-
97
Nov
-97
Jan-
98
Mar
-98
May
-98
Jul-9
8
Sep-
98
Nov
-98
Jan-
99
Mar
-99
May
-99
Jul-9
9
Sep-
99
Nov
-99
Jan-
00
Mar
-00
May
-00
Jul-0
0
Sep-
00
Nov
-00
DUBAI BRENT WTI
Evolution of oil prices ($/barrel)Evolution of oil prices ($/barrel)
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OECD vs. non OECD Oil Demand
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
mb/d
OECD Non-OECD
Emerging Economies & JODI• JODI data are becoming crucial for the growing portion of
the market accounted for by the emerging economies• All expected growth in demand is in Non-OECD• Asia and Middle East: new refining and storage
capacities• OPEC, Brazil and Caspian: supply growth
OECD6%
China34% Other
Asia13%
Latin America
11%
Middle East24%
Other12%
Regional Share of CDU Expansions
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• Within 6 months: 55 participating countries, 6 months later (May 2002): over 70 participating countries:
• 2002: six organisations obtained agreement from their member countries → Joint Oil Data Initiative, became a permanent reporting mechanism.
•
Growing JODI importance
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Member countries
Member countries
Member countries
Member countries
Member countries
Member countries
How it works
Around 100 participating countries, representing over 90% of global supply and demand
One common JODI questionnaire for all 6 organisations
© OECD/IEA 2013
At first: Simple Form – Common Questionnaire• 42 key oil data points
Petroleum Products
LPG Gasoline KeroseneGas/Diesel
OilFuel Oil Total Oil
Production Refinery Output
Imports Imports
Exports Exports
Closing Closing
Change Change
Refinery Intake Demand
Crude Oil
Stocks Stocks
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2006: JODI extended questionnaire for oil (Maxi-JODI), 2 year trial period, 2008: fully implemented
NGL, Other and Total column added in order to avoid miscounting in Crude Oil productionNGL, Other and Total column added in order to avoid miscounting in Crude Oil production
Kerosene is also used for cooking and lighting in Asia, Africa and Latin America, so the need to differentiate jet kerosene from other kerosene
Kerosene is also used for cooking and lighting in Asia, Africa and Latin America, so the need to differentiate jet kerosene from other kerosene
Addition of a few technical flows to be able to make a full oil balance and consequently better check internal consistency and overall quality
Addition of a few technical flows to be able to make a full oil balance and consequently better check internal consistency and overall quality
Naphtha accounts for a large share of other products, so the need to have a special column to report it
Naphtha accounts for a large share of other products, so the need to have a special column to report it
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• Latest: Initiative to cover Natural Gas (JODI Gas) and annual data on upstream and downstream capacity and expansion plans.
• JODI rebranded from Joint Oil Data Initiative to Joint Organisations Data Initiative
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At country level:• Trainings: Improving the quality, timeliness and coverage of statistics• Establishment of data collection mechanism when there was none• Moving from M-3 to M-2 and then to M-1• Fewer confidentiality issues, increasing coverage, better quality data
Strengthening the links between organisations, countries and companies,
contributing to the harmonization statistics
JODI World Database
Expanding platform of users
Outcomes & Achievements
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TRAINING • To help the participating countries to report better quality
data in the JODI questionnaire: definitions data quality assessment oil data issues
• To share their experience on data validation and collection issues.
• To get clarifications about the definitions, data quality assessment and oil data issues
• Apart from trainings, the IEF Secretariat hosts JODI Internship programs at its headquarters in Riyadh, for officials from developing countries with direct responsibility for oil statistics.
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1st JODI Training
------Aug 2006
------OLADE
IEFSIEA
OPECUNSDIMF
Caracas
2nd JODI Training
------Feb 2007
------IEFS
EurostatIEA
OPECIMF
Johannesburg
4th JODI Training
------Nov 2008
------IEFSAPECIEA
Bangkok
5th JODI Training
------Nov 2009
------IEFSAPEC
EurostatIEA
Ankara
6th JODI Training
------Jul 2010
------IEF
OLADEIEA
Bogota
JODI trainings already held:
7th JODI Training
------Oct 2012
------IEFIEA
OPEC
Rabat
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What happens to JODI data once submitted :
JODI World Database
Evaluation of JODI data:
• participation
• timeliness
• completeness
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JODI World Database • Accessible free of charge, regular monthly updates
• 2012 – release of the extended JODI World Database(data from extended JODI questionnaire)
www.jodidata.org
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• Ongoing JODI performance evaluation: data submission, timeliness and completeness • Ratings: Good , Fair K , Poor
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JODI on political agenda:
• 2009
• 2010
• 2011
Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, Washington DC, April 2011
Importance of JODI Data
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Expanding platform of users:
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JODI MANUAL
• Definitions of products and flows • Data verification methods• Examples of practices from countries• Questionnaire and database overview
• The manual for small JODI format is available in Spanish, French, Chinese, Russian and Arabic
• The manual for extended format of JODI has been released in October 2012, currently only in English
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Exercise
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Exercise JODI.3 Remember that the table is a BALANCE. You need to report that the NGL is used directly (on the primary product side:
NGL Direct Use) and then that it enters the market directly (on the secondary products side): report it in the “RECEIPTS” line under “Other Products”
Only now you show how it is reclassified into LPG. Use the Interproduct Transfer line. This way the LPG produced in the gas plant will be part of
demand.
Receipts for Other Products include direct use of crude oil and NGL
© OECD/IEA 2013
Exercise JODI.3
100
100
100
-100100
The Interproduct Transfer Total should be equal to 0