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Information Peacekeeping & The Future of Intelligence

The United Nations, Smart Mobs, & the Seven Tribes

Robert David Steele<bear@oss.net>

NISA 15 Nov 02

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Abstract #1: Seven Tribes

Military

Law Enforcement

Business

Academic

National

NGO &Media

Religions& Clans

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Abstract #2: ISO Standards

Generic to All Tribes• Open Source Collection

• Multi-media processing

• Analytic toolkits

• Analytic tradecraft

• Operations security

• Defensive counterintelligence

• Leadership skills

• Training & culture skills

Unique to Some Tribes• National clandestine & covert

collection, offensive CI

• Military targeting, mobility

• Police arrest & interrogation

• Business fiscal accountability

• Media attention-getting skills

• NGO humanitarian values

• Religious faith-based insights

• Ethnic blood-based insights

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Abstract #3: Multi-Lateral Sharing

80% of Global Intelligence Will Be Via:

• Shared Collection--Open, Human, Technical

• Shared Processing--Data Entry, Translation

• Shared Analysis--Multi-cultural, indigenous

20% of National Intelligence Will Be Via:

• Unilateral or bi-lateral secret collection

• Unilateral or bi-lateral secret analysis

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Abstract #4: Public Intelligence

• Intelligence as mixed public-private good• Must be taught in all schools at all levels• Public intelligence will drive public policy• Greatest impact will be on total national

budgets--allocations among the instruments of national power (less on military, more on diplomacy, intelligence, public health, etc.)

• Art of the long view will re-emerge.

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Abstract #5: UNODIN & IP

• Will take 10-25 years• UN DPI is a one-way

road with 77 lanes• UN in denial on all

aspects of intelligence• Goals: to change how

Nations spend money and how UN does business

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State of the Tribes Today

0102030405060708090

100Objective

National

Military

Business

Academic

NGO-Media

Religious

• National 50%• Military 40%• Business 30%• Academic 30%• Law Enforcement 20%• NGO-Media 20%• Religious 20%

We have much to do.

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TIME IMPACT SHORT

TIME IMPACT

LONG

MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL

EQUITIES

SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION

EQUITIES

LEADERS DECIDE

PEOPLE DECIDE

TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL

SECRET SOURCES & METHODS

BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING

OPEN SOURCES & METHODS

OBVIOUS DETAIL

OBSCURE DETAIL

OLD

NEW

Bottom-Up and Peer-to-Peer

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New Measures of Merit

• Open Source Collection• Multi-Media Processing• Analytic Toolkits• Analytic Tradecraft• Defensive Security• Leadership• Training• Culture

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Sharing the Burden• Open Source Collection,

Translation, Digitization• Distributed Processing• LINUX/OS as new

standard for all tribes• XML Geo and open API as

mandated standards• Generic analyst toolkit• Share leaders, training• Create global culture

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Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form

Automated Extraction of Data Elements From

Text and Images

Standardizing and Converting Data Formats

Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data

Automated Foreign Language

Translation

Open Literature Non-Text Data Restricted Information

Detection of Alert Situations

Clustering and Linking of

Related Data

Statistical Analysis to Reveal

Anomalies

Detection of Changing Trends

Interactive Search and Retrieval of

Data

Graphic and Map-Based Visualization

of Data

Modeling and Simulations

Collaborative Work

Notetaking and Organizing Ideas

Structured Argument Analysis

Desktop Publishing and

Word Processing

Production of Graphics, Videos and

Online Briefings

Revision Tracking and Realtime Group

Review

Finished Intelligence and Reporting

A

B

C

Processing Desktop:

Generic Analytic Functionalities

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New Paradigm (1 of 2)

OLD• Policy Over Intelligence• Unilateral• Mostly Secret• Technical Emphasis• Collection Emphasis• One-language filter• Mistakes hidden• Short-term thinking

NEW• Intelligence Over Policy• Multilateral• Mostly Public• Human Emphasis• Analysis Emphasis• Multi-lingual filters• Mistakes acknowledged• Long-term thinking

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New Paradigm (2 of 2)

NATIONAL• One leader, 3 deputies

– Secret Collection

– Open Collection

– All-Source Analysis

• Unite the tribes• Pool resources• Serve the people

GLOBAL• Multi-lateral Councils

– Collection

– Processing

– Analysis

• Unite the tribes• Regional Centers• Serve the people

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Regional Intelligence Center

O SINTH U MINT

IM INTSIG INT

D ep uty fo r Co lle ctionAu stra lia

D igitizationTran slation

V isua liza tionAn alytic Su p po rt

D e pu ty for Pro ce ssingM a laysia

W a rn ingEstima tiveC ou n tries

Issu es

D e pu ty for An a lysisC hina

C hie f o f Ce nterS ing a po re

Deputy for CounterintelligenceJapan

Deputy for Covert ActionThailand

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Collective Individual IntelligenceHarnessing Distributed Citizen Intelligence

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Change in Time Focus

• 7th Generation Thinking– Public Health

• Bacteria, Preventive Medicine• Cultures of Violence• Education & Mental Health

– Water– Food– Energy

• Accountability of Leaders Over the Longer Term

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Information Peacekeeping #1Changing What We Spend Money On

• Public intelligence can change public spending priorities

• Less on military, more on everything else

• Global intelligence can create global security forces and funds for sustaining Earth and Peace0 500

USA

Europe

Russia

Other

s

Health

Culture

Education

Assistance

Intelligence

Diplomacy

Military

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Information Peacekeeping #2Changing When & How We Intervene

• Public warning can change public policy– More Prevention

– More Peacekeeping

– More Education

– More Long-Term Aid

– Less Corruption

– Less Censorship

We have a sacred duty.“Inconvenient Warning” & “Warning Fatigue” Are Obstacles.

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Information Peacekeeping #3Changing Who Does the Thinking

® Conflict Facts for 200223 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC

Source: PIOOM (NL), data withpermission © 2002 A. Jongman

• Public, not elites, must be the final judge of global security values

• Public intelligence will enable public understanding/action

• Berto Jongman’s map is Reference A--we must all support him.

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Information Peacekeeping #4Changing Who Makes a Difference & How

Military

Law Enforcement

Business

Academic

National

NGO &Media

Religions& Clans

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Information Peacekeeping #5Changing How the World Views Intelligence

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OPGVPN

Weekly Review

Expert Forum

DistanceLearning

VirtualLibrary

SharedCalendar

VirtualBudget

Shared24/7 Plot

SharedRolodex

Creating the World Brain:Web-Based Virtual Intelligence Teams

• Weekly report• Distance learning• Virtual library• Expert Forum• Shared directory• Shared calendar• Shared budget• Shared “plot” (map)

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Information Peacekeeping #6Changing the Strategic Focus

• Connectivity everywhere• Content is digitized• Coordination of

standards and investments

• C4 Security across all seven tribes--public safety at same level as safety of secrets

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Conclusion

• The new craft of intelligence is the best hope for world peace through a world brain.

• A United Nations Open Decision Information Network (UNODIN) is a possibility.

• We work for the public. Only by educating the public, creating Smart Nations, can secret and open intelligence endeavors hope to succeed.

• Millions more will die before we get it right.• There is no time to waste--we must start now.

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Headlines, Books, & Conferences

UN INTELLIGENCE: Does Not Exist, Will Not Exist, Until Secretary General Makes Intelligence the Second Half of the Planned Reform of the Department of Public Information