& implications for society...steve ballmer,ceo microsoft,2007 it’s usually the‘experts’and...
TRANSCRIPT
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
Disruption of Transportation –& Implications for Society
Tony Sebawww.tonyseba.com
Presentation to: 3 Aug 2017
California Transportation CommissionTechnology Policy Forum
Sacramento, CA
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
A STROLL DOWN
Memory Lane
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
5th AVE NYC
1900Where is
thecar?
US National Archives : Fifth Ave NYC on Easter Morning 1900
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
5th AVE NYC
1913
George Grantham Bain Collection
Where is the
horse?Photo: Easter 1913, New York. Fifth Avenue looking north.
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
TECHNOLOGY
Disruption
Rodin – ThinkerPhoto: Tony Seba
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
What is a Disruption?
WHEN A NEW PRODUCT OR SERVICE HELPScreate a new marketANDsignificantly weaken,transform, ordestroy an existing product, market category / industry
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
FAST FORWARD TO 1985
1985Image: GMAuthority.com
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
‘Expert’ Disruption ForecastsAT&T hired McKinsey & Co to forecast cell phone adoption by the year 2000
THEIR (15-YEAR) PREDICTION
900,000SUBSCRIBERS
THE ACTUAL NUMBER WAS
109 million120x
They were off by a factor of:
Motorola DynaTAC 8000X from 1984. Source: Wikimedia, Source: Economist
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AT&T Disrupted - while $$ Trillions Created
� AT&T’s landline telephony market was disrupted� It missed out on multi-trillion dollar opportunities!
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Actual
Forecast
Sources: Subscriber Data : CTIA Companies: Company Stock date source: Yahoo!
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
“The iPhone's impact will be minimal. It will only appeal to a few gadget freaks. Nokia and Motorola have nothing to worry about.”
Bloomberg Analyst, 2007
“There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance....”
Steve Ballmer,CEO Microsoft, 2007
It’s usually the ‘experts’ and ‘insiders’who dismiss Disruptive Opportunities
“It's important that [Internet] expectations aren’t cranked too high. The total number of users is still very small...”
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
Why do smart peopleat smart organizationsconsistently fai lto anticipate or leadMarket Disruptions?
Rodin – ThinkerPhoto: Tony Seba
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
Technology Cost Curves
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Computing:Moore’s Law(1971 - 2011)
Loga
rithm
ic Sc
ale
1Billion x
� # of transistors doubles (roughly) every two years.
� Annual improvement rate ~41.4%
� Exponential growth in # of transistors
Source: Wikipedia
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
Projected cost of Li-ion Battery $/kWh
Assumption: 16% /year Technology Cost Curve Source: Clean Disruption
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$100/kWh
$200/kWh
$300/kWh
Cost
of L
i-On
Batte
ry S
tora
ge ($
/kW
h)
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KeyTechnologies
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1. Sensors / Internet of Things2. Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning3. Robotics4. Solar PV5. Energy Storage6. 3D Printing7. 3D Visualization8. Mobile Internet & Cloud9. Big Data / Open Data10. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles / Nano
Satellites11. Blockchain / eMoney / eFinance
2017: Key Technologies
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TechnologyConvergence
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Convergence 2007 - Smartphone
apple.com
� Technology convergence in 2007 to make the smartphone possible
� Data Storage – Kryder’s Law� Hard Disk $ cost per bit down 50% every 18 months
� Digital Imaging – Hendy’s Law� Pixels per $ - 59% / year
� Network Capacity – Butter’s Law of Photonics� The $ cost of transmitting a bit decreases by 50%
every 9 months
� Touchscreen, Li-ion batteries, computing, sensors... Source: Wikipedia Image: apple.com
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Business ModelInnovation
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Business Model Innovation:Ride-Sharing (Uber, Didi, Lyft, Ola...)
Source:
• Uber Bookings > US Taxi Industry Revenues (2016)• New York City = 500,000 Ride-Hailing Rides per day (1)
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Business Model Innovation
is as important & disruptive as
Technology Innovation
Business Model Disruption
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
Electric VehiclesSelf-DrivingTransport-As-A-Service
1
2
3
DISRUPTION OF TRANSPORTATION
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
The Electric Vehicle Disruption
Photo: © Tesla Motors
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IS THE ELECTRIC VEHICLEDisruptive?(You always need to ask)
Rodin – ThinkerPhoto: Tony Seba
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1. Maintenance - Gasoline Car: 2,000+ moving parts (1)
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1. EVs: 10X cheaper to MaintainICE (Gas) Vehicle
2,000+ moving parts (1)
Electric Vehicle (EV)
18 moving parts (1)
� EVs 100X fewer parts
� Tesla: Infinite Mile Warranty! (2)
Source: (1) Baron Funds, (2) Tesla Blog
Transmission, driveshaft, clutch,
valves, differentials, pistons, gears,
carburetors, crankshafts...
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2. EVs are 10X cheaper to charge/fuel
� It costs $15,000 to fill up a (gas) Jeep Liberty over five years (Consumer Reports)
� An Electric Jeep Liberty would cost $1,565in electricity
� Improvements in software and power electronics to increase this >10X
Assumptions:12,000 miles/yearTesla Roadster: 4.6 miles per kWh. Ave retail electricity in the U.S.: 12 ¢/kWh5 year-cost = (60,000 miles * 0.12 $/kWh) / 4.6 miles/kWh = $1,565.
Image Source: jeep.com
Sources: Consumer Reports, DOE, Clean Disruption
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3 – EV Lifetime 500,000+ miles
• EV powertrains can last 500,000 miles vs 140K-200K ICE • Tesla building 1,000,000 mile Powertrain• That's 5x-7x ICE vehicles (1)
(1) RethinkX
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$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
Cost
of E
lect
ric V
ehic
le
Anticipating Disruption from Above – Electric VehiclesCost of EV with 200-mile (320 Km) range
ICE “AffordableSUV": $35-$40K
Avg ICE Carin US: $33K
Avg Low-endICE car US: $22K
Assumptions: • 4 miles/kWh,• 50kWh batteries,• 16% yearly battery cost
improvement,• EV Cost = 3X battery
Source: Clean Disruption
Clean Disruption © Tony Seba
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The AutonomousVehicle Disruption
Image: Wikipedia
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World's First Self-Driving Taxi Debuts In Singapore
The first ever self-driving taxis have started picking up passengers in
Singapore.
August 25th, 2016
Source: The Verge
MIT spinoff NuTonomy will be offering rides in 2.5 sqmi business district 1-
North. Delphi also announced autonomous trial in Singapore.
Image Sources: RenaultPhoto : The Verge
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44 Corporations Working on Autonomous VehiclesCB Insights May 18th, 2017
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Elon Musk: "From Parking Lot in California to Parking
Lot in New York without touching controls by Dec
2017." (2) April 2017
TESLA TO TRANSITION TO LEVEL 5 - FULLY SELF-DRIVING - 2019
"U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration (NHTSA): Tesla with Autopilot
40% Safer." (1) Jan 2017
April 25, 2017
Image: Tesla
Sources: (1) Fortune, (2) Electrek
"Level 5 Autonomy in two years [2019]. " (2)
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WHAT ABOUT THECOST of
Autonomous Vehicles?
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Year 2000: World’s 1st 1-TeraFlops Computer
� Space = 1,600 sq ft (150 m2)� Power Consumption = 850 kW
� Cost = $46 million
ASCI RED - Sandia National Labs
Image: Extreme Tech
Source: Wikipedia
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Exponential Tech Improvement: GPU NVIDIA Drive™ PX
ü Xavier® (Q4 2017): 20 TFlopsü 1,000x improvement by 2025
Dual Drive PX 2 GPU Platform
8 TFlops• Power Consumption = 250 W
3,400x improvement
Cost = ~$600~653,000x improvement
Image and Data Sources: NVIDIA
NVIDIA CEO Jen-Hsung Huang
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
Autonomous Vehicles = Computer on Wheels
ALL YOU NEED is ONE Platform to Achieve LEVEL 4-5
Image: © Copyright Tony Seba
� Computer Platforms = network effects
� Winners Take All: only two O/S Survive (PC, Smartphone, Tablets...)
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba jenningswire.com
Cool! I can
and also
while NOT driving!
BUT WHAT’S THE
Disruptive Impact?Rodin – Thinker
Photo: Tony Seba
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Photo Tony Seba
Transportation As A Service(TaaS)
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Cars: Huge Waste of Space and Money
� Cars = 2nd largest Capital Expense� Ave. new car costs = $33k
� Cars are parked 96% of the time! (1)
� 4% Asset Utilizationis a disruption waiting to happen!
Photo: Tony Seba
Source: (1) Donald ShoupImage: Tony Seba
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On Demand + AUTONOMOUS + ELECTRIC:
Convergence of Technology & Business Model Innovation
Rodin – ThinkerPhoto: Tony Seba
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TaaS - Transport-as-a-Service: On Demand, Autonomous, Electric (AEV)
� Transport As A Service (TaaS)� Ride-Hailing (on demand) biz model� Electric Vehicle tech� Autonomous Vehicle tech
Source: (1) Clean Disruption
� Driving time goes from 4% to 40%� Vehicle Asset Utilization goes UP 10X� Cars can drive 100,000
miles/year (up from 10k miles/yr)
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
TaaS: 4x-10x Cheaper than IO Vehicles
Source: (1) Clean DisruptionSource: RETHINKX
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95% of Passenger Miles TaaS (AEV) by 2030
Source: (1) Clean DisruptionSource: RETHINKX
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Transportation As A Service(TaaS)
On Demand
Autonomous Electric Vehicles
(AEVs)
Owned by FLEETS, not individuals
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U.S Vehicle Fleet Shrinks by 80%
Source: (1) Clean DisruptionSource: RETHINKX
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba abc7news.com
Disruption of Oil
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
Global Oil Demand Peaks at 100mpd 2020Drops to 70mpd 2030
Source: (1) Clean DisruptionSource: RETHINKX
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba abc7news.com
Implications
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
TaaS Disruption - Parking Obsolete: 80%+ Vacant
Source: (1) Clean DisruptionImage: Tony Seba
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
TaaS Disruption ImplicationsFinancial & Social
Source: RethinkX
� Social: Increased mobility for all � Elderly / Pensioners� Disabled� Young� Poor, Unemployed, Underemployed
Source: RethinkX
� Financial� Saving per Household: $5,600+ / yr� U.S. Disposable Income increase by $1
Trillion / year� Productivity increase of $1 Trillion / yr -
time freed from driving
Image: Tony Seba
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba Source: (1) Clean Disruption
� Geopolitical� Oil Energy Independence� Foreign Policy: energy security less critical
Image: Tony Seba
� Environmental� 80% decrease energy consumption� 90% decrease in CO2 emissions � Decreased use of materials (20 vs 2000 &
200k vs 500k)
Source: RethinkX
Image: Tony Seba
TaaS Disruption ImplicationsEnvironmental & Geopolitical
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba abc7news.com
Back to the Future
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba US National Archives
2017
On the Cusp of Clean Disruption of Energy & Transportation
2030We are here
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
This Disruption is NOT in the FutureIt is NOW!
Photo: Tony SebaCopyright 2016 Tony Seba
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
Thank You!
Photo: NASAa
RethinkX.com/Resources
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Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
Disruption of Transportation –& Implications for Society
Tony Sebawww.tonyseba.com
Presentation to: 3 Aug 2017
California Transportation CommissionTechnology Policy Forum
Sacramento, CA