-:fat chance:- risk and reward
DESCRIPTION
-:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward. Paul Taylor 2010. What is chance?. Why do we need chance?. We balance risk / rewards in everyday life What is the danger of a building collapsing? A train being delayed? Showing up to class vs Failing the Exam?. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
-:Fat Chance:-Risk and Reward
Paul Taylor 2010
![Page 2: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
What is chance?
![Page 3: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Why do we need chance?
• We balance risk / rewards in everyday life– What is the danger of a building collapsing?– A train being delayed?– Showing up to class vs Failing the Exam?
![Page 4: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Roll of the Die...
• What are the odds?
http://www.edcollins.com/backgammon/diceprob.htm
http://www.extrabit.com/dice/d6-06.jpg
![Page 5: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
What are the odds?
http://www.extrabit.com/dice/d12-12.jpg
![Page 6: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
What do you do if you don’t have a 12 face die?
• Roll 2x 6 face die?• Roll 1x 6 face die and double the answer?• Roll 1x 6 face die and flip 1x coin?
http://www.serenapowers.com/img/dice.jpg
![Page 7: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Rolling 2x 6 face diehttp://www.edcollins.com/backgammon/diceposs.gif
![Page 8: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
http://www.upscale.utoronto.ca/cgi-bin/ErrorAnalysis/HistogramExample.cgi
![Page 9: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
• 1x Die = 1-6• 1x Coin = H / T = +0 / +6
![Page 10: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
C# / XNA Randomness
Random randNumber;randNumber = new Random();int diceRoll = randNumber.Next(1, 7);
int dice12face = randNumber.Next(1, 7) + randNumber.Next(1, 7);
![Page 11: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Complex Chance
• Suppose we have 184 different enemies for the player to face
• We want to be able to estimate the difficulty of the game without knowing the exact enemies chosen
![Page 12: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
A hierarchy of chance
• We have 184 different enemies– All must be easy, difficult, or normal– (We categorise the enemies)
• Now we can set probabilities for each category
![Page 13: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Now what is the probability:
• That your game is fun?• That your game is too difficult?• That your game is too easy?
• Now to add some balance....
![Page 14: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Adding some Balance
• We can’t just throw risk around without considering how it affects the balance of the game
http://blog.wineenthusiast.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/balance.jpg
![Page 15: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Balancing Asymmetrical games
• Commonly achieved via Resource and Power balance– Vampire Guinea Pig Apocalypse
– Three main character classes:• Normal Guinea Pig• Vampire Guinea Pig• Exorcist Guinea Pig
![Page 16: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Powers of Pigs
Exorcist Vampire GP Guinea PigDefence High Medium LowAttack Low High MediumAvoid Medium Low High
![Page 17: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Checking the balance of powerExorcist Vampire GP Guinea Pig
Defence High Medium LowAttack Low High MediumAvoid Medium Low High
Exorcist Vampire GP Guinea PigDefence High (3) Medium (2) Low (1)Attack Low (1) High (3) Medium (2)Avoid Medium (2) Low (1) High (3)Total Power 6 6 6
![Page 18: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Rock Paper Scissors
This is the circle of life version of fairnessUsed extensively by games such as Pokémon • There is no most powerful piece• For every power there is a weakness
![Page 19: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Paper Scissors Rock has no probabilityPlayer: Paper Scissors Rock
Vs Paper Draw Win Lose
Vs Scissors Lose Draw Win
Vs Rock Win Lose Draw
![Page 20: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
When is probability a good choice?
• For small frequent challenges– Item Dropping– ??– ??
• When the player can estimate the risk
![Page 21: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
When is probability a bad choice?
• When the risk is high• When the player has no control over the
amount of risk• Irreversible actions
![Page 22: -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062520/568163a3550346895dd4a91d/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
References
• Fundamentals of Game Design