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  • Handbook of Risk Theory

  • Handbook of Risk Theory

    Epistemology, Decision Theory,Ethics, and Social Implications of Risk

    With 85 Figures and 62 TablesSabine Roeser, Rafaela Hillerbrand, Per Sandin,Martin Peterson (Eds.)

  • Rafaela HillerbrandHuman Technology CenterRWTH Aachen UniversityAachenGermanyPer SandinDepartment of Plant Physiology and Forest GeneticsSwedish University of Agricultural SciencesUppsalaSweden

    Martin PetersonSection for Philosophy and EthicsEindhoven University of TechnologyEindhovenThe Netherlands

    ISBN 978-94-007-1432-8 e-ISBN 978-94-007-1433-5Print and electronic bundle under ISBN 978-94-007-1434-2DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-1433-5Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York

    Library of Congress Control Number: 2011941145

    Springer ScienceBusiness Media B.V. 2012

    No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means,electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission fromthe Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered andexecuted on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work.

    Printed on acid-free paperEditorsSabine Roeser (Editor-in-Chief)Philosophy DepartmentFaculty of Technology, Policy and ManagementDelft University of TechnologyDelftThe NetherlandsandPhilosophy DepartmentUniversity of TwenteEnschedeThe NetherlandsSpringer is part of Springer ScienceBusiness Media (www.springer.com)

  • Preface

    Risk has become one of the main topics in fields as diverse as engineering, medicine, and

    economics, and it is also studied by social scientists, psychologists, and legal scholars. But the

    topic of risk also leads to more fundamental questions such as: What is risk? What can decision

    theory contribute to the analysis of risk? What does the human perception of risk mean for

    society? How should we judge whether a risk is morally acceptable or not? Over the last couple

    of decades, questions like these have attracted interest from philosophers and other scholars

    into risk theory.

    This handbook provides an overview into key topics in a major new field of research. It

    addresses a wide range of topics, from decision theory, risk perception, to ethics and social

    implications of risk, and it also addresses specific case studies. It aims to promote communi-

    cation and information among all those who are interested in theoretical issues concerning risk

    and uncertainty.This handbook brings together leading philosophers and scholars from other disciplines

    who work on risk theory. The contributions are accessibly written and highly relevant to issues

    that are studied by risk scholars. We hope that the Handbook of Risk Theory will be a helpful

    starting point for all risk scholars who are interested in broadening and deepening their current

    perspectives.

    The editors:

    Sabine Roeser (Editor-in-Chief), Rafaela Hillerbrand, Per Sandin, and Martin Peterson

  • Acknowledgments

    Sabine Roesers work for the Handbook of Risk Theory has been conducted at the philosophy

    departments of TU Delft and Twente University and was sponsored by the Netherlands

    Organization for Scientific Research (NWO), with VIDI-grant number 276-20-012.

    Rafaela Hillerbrands work on this volume was supported by the excellence initiative of

    the German federal and state governments and conducted at the Human Technology Centre

    (HumTec) and the Institute of Philosophy, RWTH Aachen University. Thanks to all members

    of the research group eet - ethics for energy technology for insights into risks from various

    disciplines. Special thanks to Andreas Pfennig, Nick Shackel, and Peter Taylor for numerous

    fruitful discussions on the topic.

    Per Sandins work for this handbook was done in the Department of Plant Physiology and

    Forest Genetics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala and in the Department of

    Philosophy and History of Technology, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm.Martin Peterson has conducted his work for the handbook at the philosophy department of

    TU Eindhoven. Sabine Roeser and Martin Peterson are members of the 3TU. Centre for Ethics

    and Technology, a center of excellence of the federation of the three technical universities in the

    Netherlands (Delft, Eindhoven, and Twente).

    We are very grateful to the contributors of this handbook. In addition, we would like to

    thank Katie Steele, Linda Soneryd, andMisseWester, each of whom provided expert reviews for

    a chapter. We would like to thank the staff at Springer for the excellent collaboration, specially

    Ties Nijssen, Jutta Jaeger-Hamers, and Christine Hausmann.

  • Table of Contents

    Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii

    Edito

    Sabine Roeser . Rafaela Hillerbrand . Per Sandin . Martin Peterson

    2

    3

    Hauke Riesch

    John Weckert

    8 Risk and Risk-Benefit Evaluations in Biomedical Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179Annette Rid

    9 Understanding and Governing Public Health Risks by Modeling . . . . . . . . . 2136 Interpretation of Forensic Evidence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135

    Reinoud D. Stoel . Marjan Sjerps

    7 Risks and Scientific Responsibilities in Nanotechnology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159Part 2 Specific Risks

    5 The Economics of Risk: A (Partial) Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

    Louis Eeckhoudt . Henri LoubergeNiklas Moller

    4 Levels of Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87The Concepts of Risk and Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55Sven Ove HanssonA Panorama of the Philosophy of Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27Part 1 General Issues in Risk TheoryVolume 1

    1 Introduction to Risk Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1List of Contributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvrs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiiiPreface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vErika Mansnerus

  • 15

    16

    Peter R. Taylor

    x Table of Contents22 Social Influences on Risk Attitudes: Applications in Economics . . . . . . . . . . 575

    Stefan T. Trautmann . Ferdinand M. Vieider21 Real-Life Decisions and Decision Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 545

    John R. Welch20 Multi-Attribute Approaches to Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 517

    Paul Weirich19 Paradoxes of Rational Choice Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 499

    Till Grune-Yanoff18 Unreliable Probabilities, Paradoxes, and Epistemic Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 477

    Nils-Eric SahlinKarsten Klint Jensen

    17 The Mismeasure of Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441A Philosophical Assessment of Decision Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 405Claus BeisbartA Rational Approach to Risk? Bayesian Decision Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 375Part 3 Decision Theory and Risk14 Earthquakes and Volcanoes: Risk from Geophysical Hazards . . . . . . . . . . . . 341

    Amy Donovan13 Climate Change as Risk? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319

    Rafaela Hillerbrand12 Intergenerational Risks of Nuclear Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295

    Behnam Taebi11 Risk and Spatial Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265

    Claudia Basta10 Management of the Risks of Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239

    John Adams

  • Ross Buck . Rebecca Ferrer

    Philip J. Nickel . Krist Vaesen

    Table of Contents xi35 Risk and Responsibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 877

    Ibo van de Poel . Jessica Nihlen Fahlquist33 Risk and Virtue Ethics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 833

    Allison Ross . Nafsika Athanassoulis

    34 Risk and Trust . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85732 Moral Emotions as Guide to Acceptable Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 819

    Sabine Roeser31 Toward a Premarket Approach to Risk Assessment to Protect Children . . . .805

    Carl F. Cranor30 Ethics and Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 791

    Douglas MacLeanPart 5 Risk Ethics29 Tools for Risk Communication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 761

    Britt-Marie Drottz-Sjoberg28 Cultural Cognition as a Conception of the Cultural Theory of Risk . . . . . . . . 725

    Dan M. Kahan26 The Role of Feelings in Perceived Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 677

    Melissa L. Finucane

    27 Emotion, Warnings, and the Ethics of Risk Communication . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69325 Risk Perception and Societal Response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 661

    Lennart Sjoberg24 Risk Communication in Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 621

    Nicolai Bodemer . Wolfgang Gaissmaier23 Risk Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 603

    Dylan EvansPart 4 Risk PerceptionVolume 2

  • 36 What Is a Fair Distribution of Risk? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 909

    Madeleine Hayenhjelm

    37 Intergenerational Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 931

    Lauren Hartzell-Nichols

    39

    40

    41

    42

    43

    44

    46

    Inde

    xii Table of Contentsx . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1165Val DusekRisk Management in Technocracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1137Marijke A. Hermans Tessa Fox Marjolein B. A. van Asselt

    45 EU Risk Regulation and the Uncertainty Challenge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1119

    Marjolein B. A. van Asselt . Ellen VosRisk Governance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1093. .Rinie van Est Bart Walhout Frans BromRisk and Technology Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1067. .Tsjalling Swierstra Hedwig te MolderRisk and Soft Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1049.Misse WesterRisk and Gender: Daredevils and Eco-Angels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1029Rolf Lidskog Goran SundqvistSociology of Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1001.Part 6 Risk in SocietyColleen Murphy Paolo GardoniThe Capability Approach in Risk Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 979.38 The Precautionary Principle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 961

    Marko Ahteensuu . Per Sandin

  • Editors

    Sabine Roeser (Editor-in-Chief)

    Philosophy Department

    Faculty of Technology,

    Policy and Management

    Delft University of Technology

    Delft

    The Netherlands

    and

    Philosophy Department

    University of Twente

    Enschede

    The Netherlands

    Rafaela Hillerbrand

    Per Sandin

    Department of Plant Physiology and Forest

    Genetics

    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences

    Uppsala

    Sweden

    Martin Peterson

    Section for Philosophy and Ethics

    Eindhoven University of Technology

    Eindhoven

    The NetherlandsHuman Technology Center

    RWTH Aachen University

    Aachen

    Germany

  • xiv Editorial Board

  • oJohn Adams

    Department of Geography

    Nafsika Athanassoulis

    Oswestry

    Claudia Basta

    Section Philosophy

    Land Use Planning Group

    Wageningen University and Research

    Claus Beisbart

    Fakultat Humanwissenschaften und

    Theologie

    Nicolai Bodemer

    Britt-Marie Drottz-Sjoberg

    Risk Psychology, Environment and Safety

    Research GroupInstitut fur Philosophie und

    Politikwissenschaft

    Technische Universitat Dortmund

    Department of Psychology

    Norwegian University of Science and

    Technology (NTNU)Centre

    Wageningen

    The NetherlandsDelft University of Technology

    3TU. Centre for Ethics and Technology

    Delft

    The Netherlands

    andUKUniversity College London

    London

    UK

    Marko Ahteensuu

    Public Choice Research Centre (PCRC)

    University of Turku

    Turku

    FinlandList of ContributDortmund

    GermanyAmy Donovan

    Department of Geography

    University of Cambridge

    Cambridge

    UKCarl F. Cranor

    Department of Philosophy

    University of California

    Riverside, CA

    USARoss Buck

    Department of Communication Sciences

    University of Connecticut

    Storrs, CT

    USAFrans Brom

    Department of Technology Assessment

    Rathenau Institute

    The Hague

    The NetherlandsHarding Center for Risk Literacy

    Max Planck Institute for Human

    Development

    Berlin

    GermanyrsTrondheim

    Norway

  • and

    School of Medicine

    Behavioral Research Program

    Germany

    USA

    Finland

    Sweden

    USA

    UK

    xviTessa Fox

    Department of Technology and Society

    Studies

    Faculty of Arts & Social Sciences

    Maastricht UniversityDivision of Cancer Control and Population

    Sciences

    National Cancer Institute

    Rockville, MD

    USA

    Melissa L. Finucane

    East-West Center

    Honolulu, HI

    USAUniversity College Cork

    Cork

    Ireland

    Rebecca FerrerThe Center for Operations Research and

    Econometrics (CORE)

    Universite catholique de Louvain

    Louvain

    Belgium

    Dylan EvansLouis Eeckhoudt

    IESEG School of Management

    Lille

    FranceVal Dusek

    Department of Philosophy

    University of New Hampshire

    Durham, NH

    USA

    List of ContributorsMaastricht

    The NetherlandsMarijke A. Hermans

    Department of Technology and Society

    Studies

    Faculty of Arts & Social Sciences

    Maastricht UniversityMadeleine Hayenhjelm

    Department of Philosophy

    University College London

    LondonLauren Hartzell-Nichols

    Program on Values in Society

    University of Washington

    Seattle, WASven Ove Hansson

    Division of Philosophy

    Royal Institute of Technology

    StockholmTill Grune-Yanoff

    Helsinki Collegium of Advanced Studies

    University of Helsinki

    HelsinkiPaolo Gardoni

    Zachry Department of Civil Engineering

    Texas A&M University

    College Station, TXWolfgang Gaissmaier

    Harding Center for Risk Literacy

    Max Planck Institute for Human

    Development

    BerlinMaastricht

    The Netherlands

  • UK

    USA

    Eindhoven

    Stockholm

    The Netherlands

    Switzerland

    xviiRafaela Hillerbrand

    Human Technology Center & Institute for

    Philosophy

    RWTH Aachen University

    Aachen

    Germany

    Karsten Klint Jensen

    Danish Centre for Bioethics and Risk

    Assessment

    Institute of Food and Resource Economics

    University of Copenhagen

    Frederiksberg C

    Denmark

    Dan M. Kahan

    Yale Law School

    Yale University

    New Haven, CT

    USA

    Rolf Lidskog

    Centre for Urban and Regional Studies

    Orebro University

    Orebro

    Sweden

    Henri Louberge

    Department of Economics

    Geneva Finance Research Institute (GFRI)

    University of Geneva

    Swiss Finance Institute

    Geneva

    Switzerland

    Douglas MacLean

    Department of Phil...

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