1

:

1:

(collect), (analyze), (present) (interpret) (data) ?(, )

"I have no data yet. It is a capital mistaketo theorise before one has data. Insensiblyone begins to twists facts to suit theories,instead of theories to suit facts.Sherlock Holmes, A Scandal in Bohemia (Sir ArthurConan Doyle)

vs. : : :

vs. : , : :

(v)

(p)

vs. / vs.

(e.g. )(e.g. )(e.g. )(e.g. )(e.g. ):ILO15

15

15 ().500 20,300 2.615 6Neyman Allocation20

100/1~101/81018

()17 ()

()

889

()

/1990.8.19,7501991.8.111,0401992.8.112,3651993.8.1613,3501994.8.2014,0101995.8.114,8801996.9.115,3601997.10.1615,8402007.7.117,2802011.1.117,8802012.1.118,7801987~2011

vs. : , : :

Q: ?A: : ?, ?!/, (random shocks/stichastic shocks): ?!.....(qualitative data) , , , (quantitative data) , , , , 0 1 (): , , , : ,, , : , , 2006 : , 1972 2006 34:

86 99 98 99 99 83 86 75 94 98 99 92 95 85

?: !

:

(Mean): n

(Median):

MeanXXnXXXniinn112

MedianPosition of median in sequence

Positioning Point

Ordered: 75 83 85 86 86 92 94 95 98 98 99 99 99 99

(Quartiles) (Percentile)

Variance:

(Standard Deviation):Ordered : 75 83 85 86 86 92 94 95 98 98 99 99 99 99 QuartilesQPosition1 +114114143754n()().Q661Ordered: 75 83 85 86 86 92 94 95 98 98 99 99 99 99

QPosition2 214214147.5n()().Q9495294.52Ordered: 75 83 85 86 86 92 94 95 98 98 99 99 99 99

Q993QPosition3 3143141411.2511n()()

Percentile

Variance:SXXnXXnSiiniin221122221927583 9914159.3846 92 92 ()()()()where 92(Standard Deviation):Sample Standard Deviation

SSXXniin22117.7061()59.3846

(Skewness) ()

= 0 > 0 < 0

(Kurtosis) ()

(Normal distribution) = 3 (): < 3: > 3

k =

=