環境與經濟的互動影響 及市場機制功能

Environment & Economy

The relationship between environment change and economic growth is two-sided.

Economy Environment

Environment & Economy1. Economy Environment ：

◦ Environment Kuznets Curve （EKC）

The EKC states that economic growth and environmental degradation has an inverted U-shaped relationship. ◦ During initial industrial period, people care more about their job and

income better than the issue of environment; therefore, pollution grows rapidly in this period.

◦ After when income increases to a certain level, people begin to pay more attention to the environment quality so that at high-income levels, economic growth leads to environmental improvement.

Environment & EconomyII. Environment Economy ：

◦A recent study estimates a 2%~5% decrease in yield potential of wheat and maize for a temperature rise of 0.5°C to 1.5°C in India.

◦Dell et al. (2009) also estimate that a national income per-capita will fall 8.5% on average as per Celsius degree rise in temperature.

◦Asian Development Bank (ADB) states that climate change can have a major impact on economic growth in Asia. If nothing is done, then the total cost of climate change for the country of Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam could reach a combined 6.7% of GDP every year until 2100.

Issues in LiteratureThe causal chain linking economic

behavior today to economic consequences tomorrow via environment changes can be summarized as follows:

However, each of the linkages between the components above involves complex factors.

Issues in LiteratureThe economies of some countries are more

vulnerable to environment change than the global average.◦Mendelsohn et al. (2006) aruge that up to 80% of

the damages from climate change may be concentrated in low‐latitude countries.

◦Dell et al. (2008) argue that higher temperatures have large, negative effects on economic growth, but only in poor countries.

◦Since they find no effects on rich countries, their results thus further imply that future climate change may substantially widen income gaps between rich and poor countries.

Issues in LiteratureSome damages from environment

change will not affect the global economy, but also will simply reduce the quality of life.◦Parks and other conservation areas will

change. ◦Animals will change their range.◦Endangered species may be lost.◦Another important set of nonmarket

impacts involves health effects.

Relevant Background of TaiwanGeography ：

◦The island of Taiwan is located in the Western Pacific between Japan and the Philippines off the southeast coast of China, from which it is separated by the Taiwan Strait. 

◦With a total area of about 36,191 square kilometers, Taiwan is 394 kilometers long and 144 kilometers wide at its widest point.

Relevant Background of TaiwanTopography ：◦ 31 ％： High mountains

over 1,000 meters.

◦ 38 ％： Hills and terraces between 100 and 1,000 meters above sea level.

◦ 31 ％： Alluvial plain below 100 meters in elevation, where most communities, farming activities, and industries are concentrated.

Relevant Background of TaiwanEconomy ：

◦1952 ～ 1980 ： annual economic growth rate of 9.21%

◦1981 ～ 2000 ： slowing the growth rate to a low of 7.15%

◦2002 ～ 2007 ： economic growth ranged from 3.5% to 6.2%

per year◦2008 ： 0.73%

2009 ：－ 1.93%2010 ： 10.88%2011 ： 4.03%

Relevant Background of TaiwanGeographic areas ：

Relevant Background of TaiwanPopulation ：

◦ At mid-2010, its population stood at 23.1 million. With 638 persons per square kilometer, Taiwan is one of the most densely populated areas in the world.

◦ Northern region : 44.63%Central region : 24.99%Southern region : 27.91%Eastern region : 2.47%

Relevant Background of Taiwan

Industry ：◦Firms are located in ：

Northern region : 46.7%Central region :

24.3%Southern region :

26.1%Eastern region :

3%

Relevant Background of Taiwan

Temperature ：◦ Summer climate ：

Humid and hot. Ｗ ith the temperature averaging 82 degrees F (28 degrees

C).  ◦ Winter climate ：

Generally mild, lasting from December to February Ｗ ith the temperature averaging 64 degrees F (18 degrees C).

Relevant Background of TaiwanPrecipitation ：

◦ Tropical and subtropical climate ： abundant rainfall.

◦ Approximately 4,000 mm (160 in) of precipitation yearly average ： the north and south differs in their rainy seasons. 

◦ North's northeast monsoon brings heavy rainfall during the winter from October to March.

◦ South's southwest monsoon brings typhoons from June to October and heavy rainfall. 

Environment ChangeStatistics of Climate Changes in Taiwan for last 100 years （ from CWB ）

Average temperature ： 0.8ºC◦Flat area ： 1.2ºC ◦Urban area ： 1.4ºC◦Western suburban area ： 0.9ºC◦Eastern suburban area ： 1.3ºC◦Mountain area ： 0.6ºC◦Outlying islands ： 1.1ºC

Trend Analyses - Temperature

1952195

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822.40

22.80

23.20

23.60

24.00

24.40

TaiwanAve : 23.40 St.D : 0.47Max : 24.48(1998)Min: 22.5(1968)

The mean temperature in Taiwan increased during 1952-2010.

22.75ºC in 1955 ； 23.14ºC in 1975 ；

23.25ºC in 1995 ； 23.73ºC in 2005.

The standard deviation of 12 months per year becomes smaller.

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83.30 3.50 3.70 3.90 4.10 4.30 4.50 4.70 4.90 5.10 5.30

St.D Average : 4.34St.D : 0.34Max : 5.27(1963)Min: 3.4(1966)

Trend Analyses - Temperature

The rate of increase for Tmin was higher than that of Tmax.

TDiff decreased.

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812.20 14.20 16.20 18.20 20.20 22.20 24.20 26.20 28.20 30.20

Average : 28.77St.D : 0.56Max : 30.13(2003)Min : 27.5(1955)

Average : 16.7St.D : 1.17Max : 18.75(2006)Min : 12.93(1963)

Max

Min

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80.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00

10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00

Diff(Max-Min)

Ave : 12.07St.D : 1.06Max : 15.6(1963)Min : 10.08(1966)

Temperature Trend

The mean monthly temperature was higher in south than in north. Tmax increased more significantly in rural regions.

23.40 23.80 24.20 24.60 25.00 25.40 25.80 26.20

Kaohsiung(South)Ave: 24.68 St.D : 0.518Max : 25.8(1998)Min : 23.65(1968)

21.00 21.40 21.80 22.20 22.60 23.00 23.40 23.80

Taipei(North)Ave: 22.64 St.D : 0.54Max : 23.8 (2002)Min : 21.76 (1955)

22.20 22.40 22.60 22.80 23.00 23.20 23.40 23.60 23.80 24.00 24.20 24.40

Hualien(East)Ave: 23.22St.D : 0.426Max : 24.26(1998)Min : 22.26(1968)

22.00 22.40 22.80 23.20 23.60 24.00 24.40

Taichung(Central)Ave :23.04 St.D :0.54Max :24.31(1998)Min:22.175(1968)

Trend Analyses - Precipitation

The mean monthly precipitation in Taiwan increased from 1952 to 2010.

Unlike temperature, the variability of monthly precipitation per year becomes larger.

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890.00

105.00 120.00 135.00 150.00 165.00 180.00 195.00 210.00 225.00 240.00 255.00 270.00

TaiwanAve: 163.406St.D: 31.662Max : 261.946(1998)Min : 99.82(2002)

60.00 90.00

120.00 150.00 180.00 210.00 240.00 270.00

St.DAve : 141.40St.D: 41.01Max : 260.56(2001)Min : 72.11(1993)

Trend Analyses - Precipitation

The minimum monthly rainfall does not change too much in the past 50 years.

The variation mainly comes from the variability of the maximum monthly precipitation.

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80.00

100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.00 900.00

Ave : 467.56St.D: 142.19Max : 924.1(2001)Min : 248.9(1993)

Ave : 25.53St.D: 11.71Max : 57.58(1998)Min : 3.93(2003)

Max

Min

0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.00 900.00

1000.00 Ave : 442.03St.D: 141.67Max : 914.43(2001)Min : 229.35(1993)

Diff (Max-Min)

Correlation Analyses Correlation Coefficients ：

The correlation coefficient of temperature and economic growth is negative (-0.469), implying these two variables are negatively correlated. It still remains the same if we only focus on agricultural sector (-0.354) or manufacturing sector (-0.226).

Similar results for precipitation.

Whole Economy

(1952-2010)

Agricultural, forestry,

fishery and　husbandry sectors　

(1982-2009)

Manufacturing sector

(1982-2009)

Temperature -0.469 -0.354 -0.226

Precipitation -0.365 -0.343 -0.281

Correlation Analyses Correlation Coefficients

Variability ：

The variability of temperature shows the positive values. As we mentioned earlier, the variation of temperature becomes smaller as time goes by, it could be the reason why we observe this outcome.

The variability of precipitation is inversely correlated to economic growth (-0.42), indicating that higher variability of rainfall is more likely to come with lower economic growth.

Whole Economy

(1952-2010)

Agricultural, forestry,

fishery and　husbandry sectors　

(1982-2009)

Manufacturing sector

(1982-2009)

Temperature Variability

(St.D)0.212 0.453 0.193

PrecipitationVariability

(St.D)-0.42 -0.376 -0.429

RemarksThe correlation analyses

demonstrate that the level of temperature, precipitation and ozone concentrations are negatively correlated to economic growth in Taiwan.

Furthermore, the variability of precipitation is also found to be inversely related to the economic development, but we do not find the same result for the temperature’s variability.

經濟工具何謂外部性直接管制庇古稅寇斯定理

海角七號的成功也 帶動了墾丁觀光業的發展，這表示了什麼經濟現象?

在財貨的生產和消費過程中，常常對非當事人產生有害或有益的副作用，此副作用即為『外部性』。因此，外部性亦可說是一方的行為影響到他方的福利，卻沒有承擔相應的義務或獲得回報。就像海角七號電影的成功，帶動墾丁當地觀光意外的蓬勃發展。此電影就對墾丁觀光業帶來了『好的外部性』。

外部性 (Externality)

海角七號電影的成功，帶動墾丁當地觀光意外的蓬勃發展。此電影就對墾丁觀光業帶來了『好的外部性』。 高屏地區養殖漁業者大量抽取地下水，導致地層下陷，使得當地區民飽受淹水之苦，則此業者為居民帶來了『壞的外部性』。 外部性有好有壞，好的外部性稱為『外部利益』、壞的稱為『外部成本』。

外部性只要存在，無論是好的或是壞的外部性，市場決定的結果就會和社會上應該 要有的結果不一樣，因此會造成經濟學上所謂的『效率損失』。 市場上只會考慮個人本身的利益與成本；而社會應考慮全部成員的利益與成本。 基於效率損失的存在，政府應該主動介入市場來矯正外部性。

外部性與經濟效率

萬一市場中出現了外部性，要怎麼樣解決呢？可能的方式有：

◦直接管制◦課稅或補貼◦外部成本內部化 ( 寇斯定理 )

解決外部性的方法

直接管制：由政府針對不同性質污染源，分別訂定可計量的污染排放標準，或者直接禁止。課稅或補貼：先測量污染源在一定期間內排放的污染量，再據以計算稅負。課徵污染稅和直接管制措施相比較，後者是以行政權為依靠，對特定污染行為採取「禁止」的手段，而前者則以加重污染行為的經濟負擔為誘因，達到「寓禁於徵」的目的。

庇古稅的圖形分析 $

QMQ*

MPB

MPC

MECMSC=MPC+MEC

Q

P*

PM

Tax

Coase 定理 If the transaction (or bargaining) costs are negligible

and the numbers of parties are few, an efficient solution to an externality is achieved as long as someone is assigned property rights, independent of who is assigned the rights.

當交易成本為零時，污染者與被污染者可透過協商談判，來達成協議，解決外部性問題，而達到資源最有效率的使用。 寇斯教授認為不論財產權歸屬任何一方，私人協議可使資源有效利用。

外部性會發生，其實就是無法建立一個適當的市場來交易。有趣的例子

外部性的內部化（寇斯定理）