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1© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics
2© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics
Economic Development and the Coronavirus
Webinar
April 9, 2020
Note: The decline in employment relate to the COVID-19 crisis may start to be
evident in preliminary May data that includes the 1st quarter of 2020.
The decline will be clear in the 2nd quarter data released in August 2020.
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Meet Our Speaker
Chris Chmura, Ph.D.
CEO & Chief Economist
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Nationally renowned economic consultant and provider of software and data solutions
Who is Chmura?
Founded in 1998 by Christine Chmura, PhD.
Offices in Richmond, Cleveland, and Spokane
We are economists,data scientists, statisticians, and business professionals
We are driven by client satisfaction and success
We focus on quality,innovation, and
customer service
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The COVID-19 Crisis ▪ National Economic Outlook
▪ How bad will this get?▪ When will the rebound start?
▪ Regional Issues Will Vary Depending on ▪ Spread of COVID-19▪ Type of industries in the region
▪ What Can We Do as Economic Developers▪ How can I be prepared?▪ Online information
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National Economy
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We Entered the Crisis with a Strong Economy
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-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 Feb-19
Employment Growth Monthly Change in Thousands
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Real Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Annualized Percent Change
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How Will Economy Be Affected? 3 Scenarios
▪ Scenario 1▪ COVID-19 lasts 3 months through May
▪ Scenario 2▪ COVID-19 lasts 6 months through August
▪ Scenario 3▪ COVID-19 last 3 months through May but includes shelter
in place or temporary shutdown of some businesses. This will vary by state and metropolitan area.
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Outcome of Scenarios 1 and 2
Scenario 1
Real GDP Q2 = annualized -13.8%
Real GDP Q3 = annualized -5.1%
Real GDP Q4 = annualized +4.0%
Unemployment rates peaks at 13.3% in Q3 2020
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Outcome of Scenarios 1 and 2
Scenario 1
Real GDP Q2 = annualized -13.8%
Real GDP Q3 = annualized -5.1%
Real GDP Q4 = annualized +4.0%
Unemployment rates peaks at 13.3% in Q3 2020
Scenario 2
Real GDP Q2 = annualized -13.8%
Real GDP Q3 = annualized -9.1%
Real GDP Q4 = annualized -3.9%
Real GDP Q1 2021 = annualized +3.9%
Unemployment rates peaks at 14.0% in Q4 2020
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Initial Unemployment Claims (in Thousands)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Recession Initial Claims 4 Week Moving Average
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Last Month Initial Unemployment Claims (In Thousands)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
3/7/2020 3/14/2020 3/21/2020 3/28/2020 4/4/2020
Initial Claims 4 Week Moving Average
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Another Leading Indicator: Online Job Ads5-Week Span
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39.3%
22.5%
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Another Leading Indicator: Online Job Ads5-Week Span
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39.3%
22.5%34.7%
30.6%
27.9%
27.9%
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Federal Aid Package Will Help
▪ Economic Development p. 230 and 231▪ $1.5 billion
▪ Prevent, prepare and respond to coronavirus
▪ DOL p. 273▪ $345 million through September 30, 2022 to assist
dislocated workers.
▪ May replace grant funds previously obligated to impacted areas.
▪ Payroll Protection Program (PPP), p. 6▪ SBA loans: $349 billion▪ Loans can be forgiven if used to cover approved expenses
▪ SBA current interest rate is 0.5% (was 1.0%) with 2-year repayment
▪ Federal Reserve Board Announcement Today▪ $2.3 trillion in lending
▪ $500 billion loans for state and municipalities▪ 4-year loans for companies with 10,000 of fewer employees
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Economic Development in H.R. 748 https://www.congress.gov/116/bills/hr748/BILLS-116hr748enr.pdf
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COVID-19 Economic Impact: Sharp and Short; Not Sustained (Real GDP)
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Forecast:
Scenario 1
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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Not a Depression
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Great Variation by Region
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Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Research Center
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University of Washington(Available By State)
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
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How Vulnerable Is My Region to COVID-19?23
http://chmuraecon.com/interactive/covid-19-economic-vulnerability-index/
(Sectors with the largest expected job losses at the top; those with smallest projected losses at the bottom.)• Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation• Accommodation and Food Services• Wholesale Trade• Transportation and Warehousing• Other Services (except Public
Administration)• Retail Trade• Manufacturing• Health Care and Social Assistance• Educational Services• Administrative and Support and Waste
Management and Remediation Services• Finance and Insurance• Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting• Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas
Extraction• Information• Construction• Professional, Scientific, and Technical
Services• Utilities• Management of Companies and
Enterprises• Public Administration• Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
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What Can I Do As an Economic Developer?
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How Can I Help Prepare for the Recovery Phase?
▪ Become the local clearinghouse for resources offered by CARES Act
▪ Continue to invest in site readiness and infrastructure
▪ Take steps to understand post COVID-19 supply chain shifts
▪ Pharmaceuticals
▪ Personal protective equipment
▪ Increase focus on business retention
▪ Support your workforce
▪ Which occupations and industries are most vulnerable?
▪ What types of workers do we need most as an industry expands?
▪ Encourage dialogue between businesses and educators
▪ How can I help people find jobs without leaving their homes?
▪ Job postings API
▪ Career Concourse
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Increase Focus on Business Retention
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Increase Focus on Business Retention
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Support Your Workforce: Job Ads Are A Leading Indicator
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655,181676,212 669,586
603,172
476,232
418,626
Feb 16 Feb 23 Mar 1 Mar 8 Mar 15 Mar 22
Total Online Job AdsUnited States, by Week Posted
Source: JobsEQ
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Which Occupations Are Most at Risk within Vulnerable Industries?
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Which Occupations Are
Most at Risk?Industry/Occupation Mix
for Hotels
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Which Occupations Are
Most at Risk?Industry/Occupation Mix
for Hotels
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Which Occupations Are Most at Risk?What If for Hotels
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Changes in One Industry Ripple Through the Economy
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Grocers, Pharmacies, and Delivery Businesses Are Hiring
+30,000
+20,000
+300,000
+6,000
+20,000
+50,000
+20,000
+9,500
+25,000
+100,000
+150,000
+50,000
+30,000
+10,000
+7,500
+1,000
+30,000
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Short-Term on the Job Training and No Degree Required
4,126
4,981
4,211
3,612
5,132
4,505
4,244
3,5473,347
4,205
4,206
5,788
6,6486,051
7,118
7,9378,261
8,150
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Feb 16 Feb 23 Mar 1 Mar 8 Mar 15 Mar 22
Easy-Entry Jobs with Increases in Online Job AdsUnited States, by Week Posted
Cashiers Driver/Sales Workers Stock Clerks, Sales FloorSource: JobsEQ
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Some Healthcare Jobs Are In Demand
39,776
10,253
2,493
40,247
11,738
2,651
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Registered Nurses Nursing Assistants Medical and ClinicalLaboratory Technicians
Healthcare Jobs with Increases in Online Job AdsUnited States
March, Weeks 1-2 March, Weeks 3-4Source: JobsEQ
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Which Occupations Are Most in Demand
Based on Industry Growth (Industry-
Occupation Crosswalk)?
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Temporary Positions Increase When Downturn Is Ending
20
40
60
80
100
120
Feb 16 Feb 23 Mar 1 Mar 8 Mar 15 Mar 22
Online Job AdsUnited States; Index: Week of Feb 16 = 100
Overall Job Ads Temporary Positions Part-Time PositionsSource: JobsEQ
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Encourage Dialogue Between Businesses and Educators/Trainers
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Occupations Linked to Cyber/Computer Forensics and Counterterrorism, CIP 43.0166
Education and Training Requirements Educational Attainment
Typical Education
Needed for Entry
Work Experience in
a Related
Occupation
Typical On-the-Job
Training Needed to
Attain Competency
in the Occupation No
Co
llege
So
me
Colle
ge
,
No D
egre
e
Asso
cia
te's
Degre
e
Ba
ch
elo
r's
Degre
e
Po
stg
rad
u
ate
Degre
e
Information Security
AnalystsBachelor's degree Less than 5 years None 4% 9% 9% 47% 31%
Computer
Occupations, All OtherBachelor's degree None None 7% 14% 12% 47% 21%
Criminal Justice and
Law Enforcement
Teachers,
Postsecondary
Doctoral or
professional degreeNone None 1% 1% 1% 16% 80%
Detectives and
Criminal Investigators
High school
diploma or
equivalent
Less than 5 yearsModerate-term on-
the-job training6% 16% 10% 49% 20%
Private Detectives and
Investigators
High school
diploma or
equivalent
Less than 5 yearsModerate-term on-
the-job training7% 15% 8% 49% 22%
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In Demand, But Not Taught At Any Colleges in the MSA
Snapshot of Occupations Linked to Cyber/Computer Forensics and Counterterrorism in the Richmond, VA MSA1
Current
3-Year
History 7-Year Forecast
Occupation Empl
Avg Ann
Wages2 Unempl
Unempl
Rate
Online
Job
Ads3 Ann %
Total
Demand Exits
Trans-
fers
Empl
Growth
Avg Ann
Growth
%
Computer Occupations,
All Other1,633 $91,000 33 1.9% 1,062 5.5% 876 226 547 104 0.9%
Information Security
Analysts1,489 $94,700 31 2.2% 341 6.9% 1,074 211 573 290 2.6%
Detectives and Criminal
Investigators391 $82,500 4 1.0% 66 0.6% 168 74 95 -1 0.0%
Private Detectives and
Investigators175 $44,900 3 1.6% 5 -2.7% 128 64 55 10 0.8%
Criminal Justice and Law
Enforcement Teachers,
Postsecondary
86 $66,500 2 2.3% 5 0.2% 53 23 24 6 0.9%
Total - Linked Occupations 3,774 $88,900 73 1.9% 1,479 4.9% 2,303 597 1,294 412 1.5%
Total - All Occupations 681,208 $51,700 19,321 2.9% 49,032 0.9% 552,304225,
740301,860 24,703 0.5%
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How Can I Help Dislocated Workers When One Stop is Closed? API Job Feed
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How Can I Help Dislocated Workers When One Stop is Closed? Career Concourse
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How Can I Help Dislocated Workers When One Stop is Closed? Career Concourse
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How Can I Help Dislocated Workers When One Stop is Closed? Career Concourse
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The COVID-19 Crisis ▪ This Crisis Will End! Optimism and
Leadership is Needed in These Times!
▪ National Economic Outlook▪ Sharp and short; not sustained
▪ Regional Issues Will Vary Depending on ▪ Spread of COVID-19▪ Type of industries in the region
▪ How Can I Be Prepared?▪ Identify occupations employed in
affected industries▪ Use online tools
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48© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics