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Page 1: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

1© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Page 2: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

2© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Economic Development and the Coronavirus

Webinar

April 9, 2020

Note: The decline in employment relate to the COVID-19 crisis may start to be

evident in preliminary May data that includes the 1st quarter of 2020.

The decline will be clear in the 2nd quarter data released in August 2020.

Page 3: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

3© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Meet Our Speaker

Chris Chmura, Ph.D.

CEO & Chief Economist

Page 4: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

4© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Nationally renowned economic consultant and provider of software and data solutions

Who is Chmura?

Founded in 1998 by Christine Chmura, PhD.

Offices in Richmond, Cleveland, and Spokane

We are economists,data scientists, statisticians, and business professionals

We are driven by client satisfaction and success

We focus on quality,innovation, and

customer service

Page 5: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

5© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

The COVID-19 Crisis ▪ National Economic Outlook

▪ How bad will this get?▪ When will the rebound start?

▪ Regional Issues Will Vary Depending on ▪ Spread of COVID-19▪ Type of industries in the region

▪ What Can We Do as Economic Developers▪ How can I be prepared?▪ Online information

5

Page 6: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

6© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

National Economy

6

Page 7: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

7© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

We Entered the Crisis with a Strong Economy

7

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 Feb-19

Employment Growth Monthly Change in Thousands

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Real Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Annualized Percent Change

Page 8: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

8© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Page 9: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

9© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Page 10: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

10© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

How Will Economy Be Affected? 3 Scenarios

▪ Scenario 1▪ COVID-19 lasts 3 months through May

▪ Scenario 2▪ COVID-19 lasts 6 months through August

▪ Scenario 3▪ COVID-19 last 3 months through May but includes shelter

in place or temporary shutdown of some businesses. This will vary by state and metropolitan area.

10

Page 11: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

11© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Outcome of Scenarios 1 and 2

Scenario 1

Real GDP Q2 = annualized -13.8%

Real GDP Q3 = annualized -5.1%

Real GDP Q4 = annualized +4.0%

Unemployment rates peaks at 13.3% in Q3 2020

Page 12: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

12© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Outcome of Scenarios 1 and 2

Scenario 1

Real GDP Q2 = annualized -13.8%

Real GDP Q3 = annualized -5.1%

Real GDP Q4 = annualized +4.0%

Unemployment rates peaks at 13.3% in Q3 2020

Scenario 2

Real GDP Q2 = annualized -13.8%

Real GDP Q3 = annualized -9.1%

Real GDP Q4 = annualized -3.9%

Real GDP Q1 2021 = annualized +3.9%

Unemployment rates peaks at 14.0% in Q4 2020

Page 13: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

13© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Initial Unemployment Claims (in Thousands)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Recession Initial Claims 4 Week Moving Average

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 14: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

14© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Last Month Initial Unemployment Claims (In Thousands)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

3/7/2020 3/14/2020 3/21/2020 3/28/2020 4/4/2020

Initial Claims 4 Week Moving Average

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 15: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

15© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Another Leading Indicator: Online Job Ads5-Week Span

15

39.3%

22.5%

Page 16: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

16© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Another Leading Indicator: Online Job Ads5-Week Span

16

39.3%

22.5%34.7%

30.6%

27.9%

27.9%

Page 17: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

17© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Federal Aid Package Will Help

▪ Economic Development p. 230 and 231▪ $1.5 billion

▪ Prevent, prepare and respond to coronavirus

▪ DOL p. 273▪ $345 million through September 30, 2022 to assist

dislocated workers.

▪ May replace grant funds previously obligated to impacted areas.

▪ Payroll Protection Program (PPP), p. 6▪ SBA loans: $349 billion▪ Loans can be forgiven if used to cover approved expenses

▪ SBA current interest rate is 0.5% (was 1.0%) with 2-year repayment

▪ Federal Reserve Board Announcement Today▪ $2.3 trillion in lending

▪ $500 billion loans for state and municipalities▪ 4-year loans for companies with 10,000 of fewer employees

17

Economic Development in H.R. 748 https://www.congress.gov/116/bills/hr748/BILLS-116hr748enr.pdf

Page 18: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

18© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

COVID-19 Economic Impact: Sharp and Short; Not Sustained (Real GDP)

18

Forecast:

Scenario 1

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

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19© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Not a Depression

19

Page 20: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

20© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Great Variation by Region

20

Page 21: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

21© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Research Center

21

Page 22: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

22© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

University of Washington(Available By State)

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Page 23: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

23© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

How Vulnerable Is My Region to COVID-19?23

http://chmuraecon.com/interactive/covid-19-economic-vulnerability-index/

(Sectors with the largest expected job losses at the top; those with smallest projected losses at the bottom.)• Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation• Accommodation and Food Services• Wholesale Trade• Transportation and Warehousing• Other Services (except Public

Administration)• Retail Trade• Manufacturing• Health Care and Social Assistance• Educational Services• Administrative and Support and Waste

Management and Remediation Services• Finance and Insurance• Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting• Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas

Extraction• Information• Construction• Professional, Scientific, and Technical

Services• Utilities• Management of Companies and

Enterprises• Public Administration• Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

Page 24: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

24© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

What Can I Do As an Economic Developer?

24

Page 25: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

25© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

How Can I Help Prepare for the Recovery Phase?

▪ Become the local clearinghouse for resources offered by CARES Act

▪ Continue to invest in site readiness and infrastructure

▪ Take steps to understand post COVID-19 supply chain shifts

▪ Pharmaceuticals

▪ Personal protective equipment

▪ Increase focus on business retention

▪ Support your workforce

▪ Which occupations and industries are most vulnerable?

▪ What types of workers do we need most as an industry expands?

▪ Encourage dialogue between businesses and educators

▪ How can I help people find jobs without leaving their homes?

▪ Job postings API

▪ Career Concourse

25

Page 26: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

26© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Increase Focus on Business Retention

26

Page 27: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

27© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Increase Focus on Business Retention

Page 28: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

28© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Page 29: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

29© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Support Your Workforce: Job Ads Are A Leading Indicator

29

655,181676,212 669,586

603,172

476,232

418,626

Feb 16 Feb 23 Mar 1 Mar 8 Mar 15 Mar 22

Total Online Job AdsUnited States, by Week Posted

Source: JobsEQ

Page 30: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

30© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Which Occupations Are Most at Risk within Vulnerable Industries?

30

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31© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Which Occupations Are

Most at Risk?Industry/Occupation Mix

for Hotels

31

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32© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Which Occupations Are

Most at Risk?Industry/Occupation Mix

for Hotels

32

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33© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Which Occupations Are Most at Risk?What If for Hotels

Page 34: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

34© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Changes in One Industry Ripple Through the Economy

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Page 35: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

35© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Grocers, Pharmacies, and Delivery Businesses Are Hiring

+30,000

+20,000

+300,000

+6,000

+20,000

+50,000

+20,000

+9,500

+25,000

+100,000

+150,000

+50,000

+30,000

+10,000

+7,500

+1,000

+30,000

Page 36: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

36© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Short-Term on the Job Training and No Degree Required

4,126

4,981

4,211

3,612

5,132

4,505

4,244

3,5473,347

4,205

4,206

5,788

6,6486,051

7,118

7,9378,261

8,150

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Feb 16 Feb 23 Mar 1 Mar 8 Mar 15 Mar 22

Easy-Entry Jobs with Increases in Online Job AdsUnited States, by Week Posted

Cashiers Driver/Sales Workers Stock Clerks, Sales FloorSource: JobsEQ

Page 37: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

37© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Some Healthcare Jobs Are In Demand

39,776

10,253

2,493

40,247

11,738

2,651

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Registered Nurses Nursing Assistants Medical and ClinicalLaboratory Technicians

Healthcare Jobs with Increases in Online Job AdsUnited States

March, Weeks 1-2 March, Weeks 3-4Source: JobsEQ

Page 38: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

38© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Which Occupations Are Most in Demand

Based on Industry Growth (Industry-

Occupation Crosswalk)?

38

Page 39: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

39© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Temporary Positions Increase When Downturn Is Ending

20

40

60

80

100

120

Feb 16 Feb 23 Mar 1 Mar 8 Mar 15 Mar 22

Online Job AdsUnited States; Index: Week of Feb 16 = 100

Overall Job Ads Temporary Positions Part-Time PositionsSource: JobsEQ

Page 40: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

40© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Encourage Dialogue Between Businesses and Educators/Trainers

Page 41: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

41© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

Occupations Linked to Cyber/Computer Forensics and Counterterrorism, CIP 43.0166

Education and Training Requirements Educational Attainment

Typical Education

Needed for Entry

Work Experience in

a Related

Occupation

Typical On-the-Job

Training Needed to

Attain Competency

in the Occupation No

Co

llege

So

me

Colle

ge

,

No D

egre

e

Asso

cia

te's

Degre

e

Ba

ch

elo

r's

Degre

e

Po

stg

rad

u

ate

Degre

e

Information Security

AnalystsBachelor's degree Less than 5 years None 4% 9% 9% 47% 31%

Computer

Occupations, All OtherBachelor's degree None None 7% 14% 12% 47% 21%

Criminal Justice and

Law Enforcement

Teachers,

Postsecondary

Doctoral or

professional degreeNone None 1% 1% 1% 16% 80%

Detectives and

Criminal Investigators

High school

diploma or

equivalent

Less than 5 yearsModerate-term on-

the-job training6% 16% 10% 49% 20%

Private Detectives and

Investigators

High school

diploma or

equivalent

Less than 5 yearsModerate-term on-

the-job training7% 15% 8% 49% 22%

Page 42: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

42© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

In Demand, But Not Taught At Any Colleges in the MSA

Snapshot of Occupations Linked to Cyber/Computer Forensics and Counterterrorism in the Richmond, VA MSA1

Current

3-Year

History 7-Year Forecast

Occupation Empl

Avg Ann

Wages2 Unempl

Unempl

Rate

Online

Job

Ads3 Ann %

Total

Demand Exits

Trans-

fers

Empl

Growth

Avg Ann

Growth

%

Computer Occupations,

All Other1,633 $91,000 33 1.9% 1,062 5.5% 876 226 547 104 0.9%

Information Security

Analysts1,489 $94,700 31 2.2% 341 6.9% 1,074 211 573 290 2.6%

Detectives and Criminal

Investigators391 $82,500 4 1.0% 66 0.6% 168 74 95 -1 0.0%

Private Detectives and

Investigators175 $44,900 3 1.6% 5 -2.7% 128 64 55 10 0.8%

Criminal Justice and Law

Enforcement Teachers,

Postsecondary

86 $66,500 2 2.3% 5 0.2% 53 23 24 6 0.9%

Total - Linked Occupations 3,774 $88,900 73 1.9% 1,479 4.9% 2,303 597 1,294 412 1.5%

Total - All Occupations 681,208 $51,700 19,321 2.9% 49,032 0.9% 552,304225,

740301,860 24,703 0.5%

Page 43: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

43© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

How Can I Help Dislocated Workers When One Stop is Closed? API Job Feed

Page 44: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

44© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

How Can I Help Dislocated Workers When One Stop is Closed? Career Concourse

Page 45: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

45© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

How Can I Help Dislocated Workers When One Stop is Closed? Career Concourse

Page 46: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

46© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

How Can I Help Dislocated Workers When One Stop is Closed? Career Concourse

Page 47: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

47© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics

The COVID-19 Crisis ▪ This Crisis Will End! Optimism and

Leadership is Needed in These Times!

▪ National Economic Outlook▪ Sharp and short; not sustained

▪ Regional Issues Will Vary Depending on ▪ Spread of COVID-19▪ Type of industries in the region

▪ How Can I Be Prepared?▪ Identify occupations employed in

affected industries▪ Use online tools

47

Page 48: © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics 1

48© 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics