詹姆士看天下 2015/12/07

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警警 警警警警警警警警警警警警警警警警警警警警警警 警警警警警警警警警警警警警警警警 :, Copyright © 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 1 2015/12/7

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Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.2015/12/7

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#

125.78102.2243.5493.4939.9155.31

20082014()-34.64% -15.70%-36.09% -7.28%-20.81% ---18.82%-5.58%-21.11% -12.76%-9.52% -5.56%

Bloomberg() 2015/11/302005/12/31%

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#G 64042

Bloomberg1bp=0.01% :2015/12/4(%)(bp)(bp)(bp)5.094854642978.336386373358.106966704614.26247249218

()()()()()

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#IND>HE00H0A0IM00ADOLLDMP

3

: Bloomberg 2015/12/4

(%)4.26(&)5.098.33%%8.10

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#IND>12)4

: Bloomberg 2015/12/4S&P5003

MSCIMSCI(%)

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#

: Bloomberg 2015/12/410203%OPEC315040

(%)

123.11$1086.852.27%$1.0881$39.97

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#

6

: Bloomberg 2015/12/4 ==225= (%)

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#

7

(2.6%)11275.48%4

(-4.8%-4.4%)

(-5.2%)RTS

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#

8

Bloomberg

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#WFII

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()Bloomberg : 2015/12/4()

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#BLP WEEKLY REPORT :>

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()Bloomberg : 2015/12/4()

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#12/7()1.61.612/8()11NFIB96.496.1GDP1.6%1.6%GDP0.2%-0.8%11()-5.0%-6.9%11()-11.8%-18.8%12/9()100.1%0.5%11CPI1.4%1.3%11PPI-5.9%-5.9%12/10()0.50%0.50%1.51.5%(12/10~15)11M213.4%13.5%(12/10~15)117200513612/11()110.3%0.1%11PPI0.0%-0.4%1292.091.311.00%11.00%

: Bloomberg

GDP11

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#

12

11205%FOMC4QE201733100FED4OPEC300031509OPEC31576FED

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#

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(60%)FED11FOMC20173Q311.2%830%11275.48%4MSCI14ADRGDP7.4%OPEC43150(40%)127ISIS

(2015/12/7)

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#

OPECOPEC 1242009 OPEC OPEC 3150 OPEC 3000OPEC93157

5%1121.19103.55%11162.5%

2FOMC

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#G20http://www.ettoday.net/news/20151117/598146.htm15

ECB(ECB)32017310-0.3%600

ISIS397223ISIS5ISIS

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#G20http://www.ettoday.net/news/20151117/598146.htm16

IMF(IMF)1130(SDR)20161010.92%(41.73%)(30.93%)(8.09%)(8.33%)PMI11PMI49.8349.649.845011PMI1053.153.6411PMI48.3348.650962016432.1129.971GDP7~92(GDP)7.4%7.3%7%105%Rajan20173

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#http://www2.hkej.com/instantnews/international/article/1181083

Draghi warned that from today's perspective, "this suggests that a sustained normalization of inflation could take longer than we anticipated in March when we first appraised the overall impact of our measures.

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ISIS

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Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#http://www2.hkej.com/instantnews/international/article/1181083

Draghi warned that from today's perspective, "this suggests that a sustained normalization of inflation could take longer than we anticipated in March when we first appraised the overall impact of our measures.

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11ISM48.650.550.111ISM55.958.059.1101.5%1.4%-1.0%102.9%--3.0%11ADP21.719.019.61121.12029.8115.0%5.0%5.0%110.2%0.2%0.4%11CPI0.4%0.4%0.3%10-0.4%0.4%0.0%101.8%1.2%-1.7%11CPI0.1%0.2%0.1%-0.3%-0.3%-0.2%0.05%0.05%0.05%

: Bloomberg

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#

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1149.649.849.81148.648.348.3101.4%1.8%1.1%Q311.2%2.2%5.6%11-4.7%-9.0%-15.8%6.75%6.75%6.75%GDP7.4%7.3%7.0%GDP2.5%2.4%2.0%GDP-4.5%-4.2%-2.6%10-11.2%-10.4%-10.9%Markit1143.8--44.1Markit1150.150.050.211CPI15.0%14.9%15.6%

: Bloomberg

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#

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(%)MSCI1694.78-0.32 -0.56 6.01 -3.73 -0.87 -2.52 2091.690.08 -0.36 8.87 -0.05 1.59 0.79 1183.40-1.58 -1.36 4.16 -6.15 -1.77 0.08 370.59-3.41 -2.46 4.45 -4.73 8.19 5.59 263.89-1.44 -0.42 5.46 -1.97 14.30 13.56 22519504.48-1.91 1.24 9.20 -4.67 11.77 8.84 4803.310.29 2.61 8.44 -3.35 9.38 9.68 3524.992.58 -1.81 14.43 -29.82 8.98 19.99 MSCI812.27-1.71 -4.72 4.38 -17.30 -15.06 -17.59 MSCI408.11-0.98 -4.16 7.49 -16.36 -10.79 -12.24 MSCI255.87-3.62 -6.25 -1.43 -16.93 -13.72 -24.88 MSCI1952.18-2.03 -3.51 -0.74 -21.36 -28.43 -31.70 MSCI219.32-4.48 -7.93 -3.66 -17.87 -19.00 -24.24 Bloomberg122.23-0.17 -0.15 -0.41 1.00 0.89 1.39 Bloomberg131.62-0.81 -0.10 0.23 0.29 -0.53 0.14 Bloomberg136.32-0.27 -0.29 0.02 0.05 -0.29 0.17 Bloomberg143.190.24 -2.14 -1.47 -4.73 -2.14 -3.54 Bloomberg148.44-0.17 -2.54 -1.65 -5.08 -0.93 -1.96 Bloomberg162.76-0.46 -0.59 1.00 -0.25 2.45 1.90 ETF45.84-0.79 -1.88 1.44 -6.12 -2.24 -5.75 Bloomberg142.10-0.87 -1.68 0.16 -2.11 0.90 -0.66 Bloomberg122.410.09 -1.22 1.73 -1.73 -1.61 -3.13 Bloomberg148.48-0.40 -1.50 0.13 -1.01 0.67 0.14

Bloomberg 2015/12/4

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#

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(%)()MSCI188.92-4.03 -7.02 1.10 -17.51 -20.56 -21.60 MSCI190.47-0.92 -2.37 1.63 -16.66 -14.61 -16.87 MSCI99.550.39 -0.11 6.05 -4.91 -3.12 -4.86 MSCI198.60-0.25 -0.44 7.30 0.01 6.65 6.26 MSCI208.40-0.10 1.26 8.15 4.27 4.24 2.96 MSCI195.34-1.20 -0.43 6.47 -4.52 -2.00 -3.22 MSCI151.811.35 0.46 13.46 2.92 7.45 6.07 MSCI67.89-0.77 -0.18 0.97 -3.36 -0.69 -4.33 MSCI109.98-0.51 -0.91 -0.91 -3.82 -10.63 -10.72 MSCI208.10-0.61 -0.09 1.36 -4.76 4.11 0.53 NBI3470.64-2.67 0.46 -1.83 -9.68 9.22 7.53 AMEX121.4412.99 10.95 11.76 -23.88 -25.97 -26.85 REITsFTSE14395.05-1.21 1.27 10.90 4.70 1.03 2.68 REITsFTSE1750.48-1.13 1.36 11.24 5.16 0.83 2.75 REITsFTSE1481.59-3.14 -3.28 4.69 4.71 18.23 18.86 REITsFTSE1448.180.26 1.63 10.07 -1.32 -4.78 -3.60 (/)1086.852.78 -0.59 -3.22 -7.56 -8.57 -9.16 (/)14.553.25 -0.44 -0.04 -9.31 -7.70 -11.39 (/)4612.000.85 -10.17 -9.92 -22.03 -26.79 -28.72 (/)43.00-4.15 -9.76 -10.16 -32.41 -25.36 -38.05 (/)39.97-4.17 -10.93 -14.33 -33.28 -25.94 -40.08 CRB183.240.00 -4.08 -6.84 -17.65 -20.31 -27.38 846.472.22 -0.77 3.17 -5.38 -12.25 -12.56

: Bloomberg 2015/12/4

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#

(%)1.08812.72 1.22 -2.57 -3.61 -10.04 -11.64 123.11-0.25 -0.02 -3.19 1.04 -2.78 -2.05 1.51120.51 -0.06 -1.12 -1.58 -3.02 -3.49 0.99643.28 0.67 -2.19 -6.97 -0.26 -2.09 1.33620.07 -0.75 -0.60 -7.30 -13.19 -14.25 0.73392.03 4.09 5.94 -4.78 -10.28 -11.56 1156.53-0.31 -2.12 3.17 -3.70 -5.67 -3.55 32.6980-0.12 -1.17 -0.02 -5.31 -3.19 -4.74 6.4027-0.13 -1.03 -0.73 -3.16 -3.08 -3.87 13834.00-0.24 -2.07 2.44 -4.00 -10.45 -11.02 66.68750.10 -1.80 -0.33 -4.02 -5.46 -7.12 35.77000.34 0.38 1.00 -5.65 -8.00 -7.74 1.39811.09 1.77 2.10 -3.23 -5.21 -5.63 4.22420.69 0.97 0.85 -12.45 -17.21 -18.42 47.04000.22 -0.54 -0.60 -4.67 -4.93 -5.10 14.37470.22 -0.38 -2.66 -13.10 -19.40 -19.60 2.89291.10 1.00 4.88 -4.85 -19.25 -21.55 68.0410-2.43 -5.04 1.57 -17.72 -10.76 -20.95 3.96671.62 -0.03 -4.27 -6.61 -10.52 -14.69 287.312.39 1.58 -2.01 -3.23 -8.91 -13.47 4.11692.00 0.77 -3.69 -3.78 -10.06 -12.41 3.75252.45 1.26 2.42 -16.49 -29.18 -30.96 16.6552-0.17 0.62 1.96 -6.24 -11.51 -13.72 9.7275-0.55 -1.64 -4.19 -7.38 -12.98 -12.11

: Bloomberg 2015/12/4

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#

(%) () (bp)30 3.00951.31.912.6-3.125.87.3102.26934.94.414.5-3.89.83.50.34103.31.8-1.9-16.81.2-9.60.678021.88.01.0-16.013.7-9.51.002022.84.9-1.2-14.117.6-3.61.654025.0-1.6-22.4-49.1-23.6-38.21.735021.5-2.0-34.1-37.412.4-15.42.486018.1-7.0-2.5-36.6-20.1-31.62.896027.611.8-2.8-18.237.832.310.28008.067.0-30.0110.0226.0237.09.4376-19.9-40.9-210.8-138.7-356.9-166.83.560028.021.0-7.0-11.0-4.0-6.08.660011.022.410.634.269.195.615.5780-24.313.249.4314.0321.4347.06.28004.823.316.214.643.637.02.30003.313.86.2-18.5-30.5-41.98.5550-6.4-17.3-37.811.575.969.9*7.7130-5.45.9-4.1-8.2-14.4-25.5102.6910-0.58.5-16.6-26.4-3.8-22.0

: Bloomberg 2015/12/4

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#

104016 (02)770-888886610 (04)3700-7988360171 (07)972-118839Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.#Chart1-0.8726591167-0.807027401-0.7899577968-0.4609980936-0.3977582083-0.2722780749-0.1744181973-0.17030152090.08600134820.238500859

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Chart10.290.0928816805-0.101657245-0.9920916797-1.7050680091-2.0289971444-4.2799305957-4.47735191641.34855464320.3933037515-0.0958772771-0.2461198453-0.5066039443-0.6065816497-0.774627302-0.9207240949-1.1987254059-4.0284480569

1

11031/12/990.290.290.00MXER Index00MSCI0.090.090.00MXEF Index00MSCI-0.10-0.100.00MXAPJ Index00MSCI-0.99-0.990.00MSAUSEA Index00MSCI-1.71-1.710.00MXLA Index00MSCI-2.03-2.030.00MXEE Index00MSCI-4.28-4.280.00MXME Index00MSCI-4.48-4.480.00CCMP Index001.350.390NW731/12/99-0.101.350.00MXWO0EN Index0.000.00-0.250.390.00MXWO0MT Index0.000.00-0.51-0.100.00MXWO0FN Index0.000.00-0.61-0.250.00MXWO0CD Index0.000.00-0.77-0.510.00MXWO0CS Index0.000.00-0.92-0.610.00MXWO0IN Index0.000.00-1.20-0.770.00MXWO0IT Index0.000.00-4.03-0.920.00MXWO0TC Index0.000.00-1.200.00MXWO0UT Index0.000.00-4.030.00MXWO0HC Index0.000.00

Chart12.216116391247.391304347810.71428571432.7841612998-4.17166147210.00076402280.85283183913.28091632692.71877655062.44631622732.02975114691.62198358181.10419800361.08949416340.50545357810.22142629070.1048571322-0.1194157813-0.2524429967-1.6656668666-2.4271135819

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112.2247.3910.712.780.00-4.173.28-0.12CRB0.002.72-1.670.852.452.723.282.03-0.252.721.621.092.451.102.032.031.090.511.620.513.281.100.220.101.090.102.450.51-0.12-2.430.22-0.250.220.10-1.671.62-0.12-2.431.10-0.25-1.67-2.43

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112.580.28&0.760.080.080.700.29-2.830.083.13-1.120.00-1.58-1.91-0.22NBI-2.67-0.98-0.87AMEX12.990.70-0.98-2.83-0.87-1.12-1.12-2.17-1.14-2.86-1.93-1.82225-1.91-1.14-1.850.29-1.88-1.88-0.98-2.69-1.910.700.00-1.93-0.870.76-2.15-2.17-0.22-2.17-1.932.58-2.45-1.14-4.80-2.69-1.88-2.15-2.83-2.69-4.37-3.040.00-1.85-4.270.76-2.45-4.37-0.22-5.21-4.802.58-3.04-5.21DAX-4.80-1.82100-2.15-4.2740-4.37SPI-1.85MIB-2.45-5.21-3.04-1.825.77-4.27-0.59